New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[srainhoutx]

Correct KWT. Just look at the EPAC. We are seeing signals of what may be just ahead for the Atlantic Basin. We need to remember that guidance is sniffing an 'uptick' in activity as we near peak season.

[ROCK]

MJO is not that all unfavorable attm...


http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm


The ULL looks to enhancing the convection for that wave approaching the LA...its moving west also at a fairly fast pace...

[HURAKAN]

Increase in convection likely because of shear

[KWT]

Yep probably ULL related but if the shear does decrease then that convection may be able to sustain itself as it could develop a circulation.

[Derek Ortt]

I am having a hard time seeing this develop as it heads toward Florida. I just dont see anything left once the UL is through with it

[Dean4Storms]

I agree Derek, hard to make out where the models are getting anything left of this wave. I wonder if the East Conus trough itself is the trigger with the flow still out of the SW at its base?

[KWT]

Still its hard to ignore every single model either having a sharp wave or a closed circulation, theres clearly something the models are latching onto, esp if nearly all of them are developing the same region. Either they are right or they are all wrong which wouldn't look great!

[Dean4Storms]

I agree KWT, the models are sniffing out a pretty significant wave of low pressure and some even closing it into a TC. In every model I see it appears to be this wave east of the LA's tracking into the Bahamas or just east of them. But with the ULL to its north and likely a SW flow in the UL to its west from the CONUS trough how it develops into a TC as depicted by the CMC is the question. One would think lots of shear and dry air especially to its NW would keep it from doing anything.

[Gustywind]

Convection is increasing...steadily.

[Sanibel]

The "perma-trough" is still over Florida.

This wave is similar to the wave that formed Claudette further on except this one shouldn't make it into the Gulf.

If it flares upon reaching the islands it will be similar to what happened with Claudette's wave.

This one has less surface organization than Claudette's wave.

[Dean4Storms]

The "perma-trough" is still over Florida.

This wave is similar to the wave that formed Claudette further on except this one shouldn't make it into the Gulf.

If it flares upon reaching the islands it will be similar to what happened with Claudette's wave.

This one has less surface organization than Claudette's wave.

True Sanibel, Will need to be watched for sure. These western developers are usually harder for the models to forecast this far out, Katrina comes to mind.

[cheezyWXguy]

The "perma-trough" is still over Florida.

This wave is similar to the wave that formed Claudette further on except this one shouldn't make it into the Gulf.

If it flares upon reaching the islands it will be similar to what happened with Claudette's wave.

This one has less surface organization than Claudette's wave.

Idk about that...I cant remember the pre-claudette wave being anything more than a cluster of convection with a weak mlc before it passed florida and ramped up. Most people the night before it started said nothing would happen.

[cycloneye]

That big upper low is keeping the wave in check.

[KWT]

Pretty much going as the models suggested, which is nothing really other then convection being sheared until around 48-72hrs when the models forecast some kind of circulation will at least try to develop. I suspect we will get a weak system out of this in the end, probably the typical low end TS into theb Carolinas!

[Sanibel]

That ULL reminds me of the one that shredded Ana.

[Blown Away]

That is one big ULL! Very cool! Imagine if that was a cane, they would have to issue a hurricane warning from Cuba to the Carolinas!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[jinftl]

True....pre-Gulf, the wave that would become Claudette was not on most folks' radars.....hardly the benchmark against which other systems have to compare to if they are going to have a chance of developing. Until Saturday night off of Tampa, pre-Claudette was code yellow per the NHC....transitioning to code red hours later....with folks split 50/50 on the no-chance side to pro-development.

The "perma-trough" is still over Florida.

This wave is similar to the wave that formed Claudette further on except this one shouldn't make it into the Gulf.

If it flares upon reaching the islands it will be similar to what happened with Claudette's wave.

This one has less surface organization than Claudette's wave.

Idk about that...I cant remember the pre-claudette wave being anything more than a cluster of convection with a weak mlc before it passed florida and ramped up. Most people the night before it started said nothing would happen.

[jlauderdal]

That is one big ULL! Very cool! Imagine if that was a cane, they would have to issue a hurricane warning from Cuba to the Carolinas!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

that thing would give typhoon tip a run if it was a surface feature. you could really scare friends, family and neighbors by emailing a picture of that thing to the untrained eye

[cycloneye]

NHC mentions this wave again.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Tropics Guy]

Yea, don't think I've seen such a large ULL in a while., until it fills in or retrogrades to the west, don't think we'll see any waves developing quickly in that region for now, but the NHC does have it at code yellow due to the convection increasing from the ULL interaction with a wave.

TG