New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

Look at that big wheel comming down.

[otowntiger]

[quote="cycloneye"]NHC is not enthusiastic about this system.

I don't blame them. There's virtually nothing there. ( Pardon all the flags, my 4 year old son sitting in my lap likes to look at them.

[mpic]

Whatever it takes to teach a new generation to be informed.

[Sanibel]

I don't think there's enough of a surface feature there to overcome the synoptic ahead.

[srainhoutx]

HPC chimes in this morning...snipet...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
753 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

VALID 12Z WED AUG 26 2009 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2009


UPDATED MORNING PROGS INCORPORATE THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN TO A
CONSIDERABLE DEGREE INCREASING IN TIME ALONG WITH THE OP ECMWF.
SFC FRONTAL POSITIONS ARE LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER PRELIMS.
BY DAYS 6 AND 7 HAVE ENHANCED THE DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FL EAST COAST AS PER OP MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND IMPROVING VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF EMWF/GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATING BETTER CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
THE WAVE ENTERS THE BAHAMAS REGION. GOOD ENSEMBLE SFC LOW
CLUSTERING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT.
JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

[Sanibel]

Great, a sleeper wave that potentially forms right on top of us as it approaches.

[jlauderdal]

HPC chimes in this morning...snipet...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
753 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

VALID 12Z WED AUG 26 2009 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2009


UPDATED MORNING PROGS INCORPORATE THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN TO A
CONSIDERABLE DEGREE INCREASING IN TIME ALONG WITH THE OP ECMWF.
SFC FRONTAL POSITIONS ARE LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER PRELIMS.
BY DAYS 6 AND 7 HAVE ENHANCED THE DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FL EAST COAST AS PER OP MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND IMPROVING VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF EMWF/GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATING BETTER CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
THE WAVE ENTERS THE BAHAMAS REGION. GOOD ENSEMBLE SFC LOW
CLUSTERING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT.
JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

systems developing beyond 60 west can be very dangerous due to less real estate for recurve, wait and watch as usual

[jinftl]

'bahama bombers'....haven't had one of those since 2005....actually, there were 2 (i believe) that season....katrina and rita

Great, a sleeper wave that potentially forms right on top of us as it approaches.

[Sanibel]

I would bet against it since the apparent surface spin seen on Floater is near 14N already.

[gatorcane]

Great, a sleeper wave that potentially forms right on top of us as it approaches.

Looks like if anything forms it would be north of the bahamas recurving east of FL anyway as shown by the few models that even develop this wave. Not worried about this one bit, probably won't be a player long-term anyway.

[Sanibel]

The negative MJO hand is on the ITCZ right now.

[gatorcane]

The semi-permanent East Coast trough (that is bringing in SW windflow from the GOM for you Sanibel in SW FL this weekend, pushing the storms inland).....continues to be Florida's friend this year. Seems like it just won't let up its grip. With this kind of pattern, its systems from the south that are the ones to watch, if something develops.

[jinftl]

Current wave is not the one that has been showing up over successive runs as possibly poised for development late this upcoming week.

Be interesting to see if something does get going that far south.....south of 12N and not gaining latitude yet...

[KWT]

The negative MJO hand is on the ITCZ right now.

Funny you should say that but actually we still are in a fairly favorable MJO phase, the models a few days ago appear to have been much too agressive, yesterdays models for example showed us staying in a weak positive mode till at least the 10th of September then slowly negative conditions take over...but you can't blame the MJO on this one!

jinftl, the 06z is the only run I've seen from the GFS in the last few days to have anything that low, most runs have had that feature north of 15N before 40W and ready to recurve. Will be interesting to see what happens though and whether its a trend the GFS continues.

[jinftl]

agree...certainly a system that far south and at least initially heading west is definitely of interest...let's see if future runs show this feature as well.

The negative MJO hand is on the ITCZ right now.

Funny you should say that but actually we still are in a fairly favorable MJO phase, the models a few days ago appear to have been much too agressive, yesterdays models for example showed us staying in a weak positive mode till at least the 10th of September then slowly negative conditions take over...but you can't blame the MJO on this one!

jinftl, the 06z is the only run I've seen from the GFS in the last few days to have anything that low, most runs have had that feature north of 15N before 40W and ready to recurve. Will be interesting to see what happens though and whether its a trend the GFS continues.

[Sanibel]

The MJO must have throttled back somewhat.

[HURAKAN]

084
ABNT20 KNHC 221747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

Personally I think the NHC gave up on this a bit too quickly --- I expect it to be re-encoded within the next couple of days up to a code orange probably. Latest visibles show some cyclonic turning albeit this area is moving into an area of higher shear from the ULL dipping SW, NW of this area.....that shear is just temporary though. If it can survive that, which I think it will, then development should be slow and steady as the shear is quite low west of 50W for thousands of miles.

Shear tendency map from CIMSS:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[KWT]

May well end up strengthening again down the line so it needs watching. The models however are not developing this area but rather something from the ITCZ currently around 50W. The models seem to be split about this area but if it doesn't pick up as much latitude as some models are expecting then things could become interesting.

[Meso]

192 hour CMC