ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[kat61]

Well, I think it was a very responsible item warning surfers about the high waves. Lots of rookie surfers will be out there trying to ride those big waves, and could get more than they bargained for.

The local media have become much more careful about warning the public since Juan 6 years ago.

As for track, the CBC weather forecast 1 hour ago still calls for this storm to remain offshore and not to make landfall until it reaches NFLD, at which point it'll be pretty much blown out.

I haven't seen any forecast that puts landfall near Halifax, which is the most densely pop. area.

thats because the graphics are INCORRECTLY connecting forecast points with a straight line. How many times does this have to be repeated? A very simple cubic spline of the NHC track has this coming into eastern Nova Scotia. I ran models last night and 4 of them showed a significant threat to Halifax (these same models showed the EWRC today). I'll see what tomorrow brings before making any final conclusions where this makes landfall. However, to say Halifax is not at risk of a direct landfall is beyond absurd! You must not quite grasp the concept of forecast uncertainty (and it is not just you... many people have trouble getting this concept and I don't believe the cone explains the real uncertainty)

Derek, thanks for all your insight and professional wisdom! anyone who minimizes anothers potential threat is irresponsible. you do a great job of clarifying our amature thoughts and concerns with respect. keep on!

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

new GFS has shifted somewhat... basically on top of the nwhhc track near Halifax

[HURAKAN]

519
URNT15 KNHC 220424
AF303 1103A BILL HDOB 22 20090822
041430 3214N 06709W 6963 03032 9902 +096 +096 148102 103 062 014 00
041500 3215N 06708W 6966 03036 9900 +103 +103 149100 100 061 010 00
041530 3216N 06706W 6968 03038 9917 +096 +096 149100 100 063 012 00
041600 3217N 06705W 6967 03045 9921 +098 +094 149098 099 062 012 00
041630 3218N 06703W 6967 03052 9936 +090 +090 150096 096 063 012 00
041700 3220N 06702W 6969 03055 9939 +093 +093 150094 095 064 011 00
041730 3221N 06700W 6962 03067 9942 +095 +095 148093 095 064 009 00
041800 3222N 06659W 6967 03067 9947 +096 +096 149093 093 064 007 00
041830 3223N 06657W 6968 03069 9950 +097 +097 150092 093 062 004 00
041900 3225N 06656W 6964 03078 9953 +097 +097 150090 090 061 005 00
041930 3226N 06654W 6967 03080 9961 +095 +095 151089 091 057 013 00
042000 3227N 06652W 6969 03077 9990 +083 +999 152092 093 060 016 01
042030 3228N 06651W 6961 03088 9990 +082 +999 152093 095 060 016 01
042100 3230N 06649W 6970 03082 9990 +081 +999 150095 095 061 014 01
042130 3231N 06648W 6962 03097 9969 +091 +091 151090 092 060 009 01
042200 3232N 06646W 6959 03105 9975 +093 +093 155096 099 060 009 01
042230 3234N 06645W 6969 03097 9990 +088 +999 154099 102 058 013 01
042300 3235N 06643W 6972 03095 9990 +081 +999 152098 099 058 014 01
042330 3236N 06641W 6967 03109 9990 +078 +999 150097 101 057 011 01
042400 3237N 06640W 6967 03110 0005 +083 +083 145091 092 057 010 01
$$
;

[Derek Ortt]

couple of key points

the recon report is quite a bit west. Not sure if that is still the small remnant eye or not. 2. This thing is not weakening. FL winds are higher than earlier today

[HURAKAN]

214
URNT15 KNHC 220434
AF303 1103A BILL HDOB 23 20090822
042430 3238N 06639W 6967 03112 0006 +089 +089 144091 092 055 008 00
042500 3240N 06637W 6962 03122 0002 +096 +096 144087 089 054 008 00
042530 3241N 06636W 6969 03117 0011 +092 +092 145087 087 053 008 00
042600 3242N 06634W 6965 03125 0006 +099 +090 147087 087 053 007 00
042630 3243N 06633W 6970 03123 0010 +100 +093 147084 084 053 005 00
042700 3244N 06631W 6967 03130 0009 +103 +085 148085 085 053 004 00
042730 3246N 06629W 6966 03133 0015 +101 +087 149084 085 052 004 00
042800 3247N 06628W 6968 03133 0019 +100 +087 148087 089 052 003 00
042830 3248N 06626W 6969 03134 0018 +101 +081 147087 089 050 004 00
042900 3249N 06625W 6965 03142 0022 +102 +081 148085 087 048 003 00
042930 3251N 06623W 6970 03138 0027 +100 +083 150087 087 048 003 00
043000 3252N 06622W 6965 03145 0032 +097 +086 150085 086 048 003 00
043030 3253N 06620W 6965 03145 0039 +092 +087 150083 084 047 003 00
043100 3254N 06619W 6970 03143 0044 +090 +090 151084 084 049 005 00
043130 3256N 06617W 6967 03149 0042 +094 +082 150085 086 048 005 00
043200 3257N 06616W 6968 03150 0046 +095 +078 150084 084 046 005 00
043230 3258N 06614W 6969 03152 0048 +095 +073 151083 083 045 004 00
043300 3259N 06612W 6963 03160 0051 +094 +069 153083 083 044 005 00
043330 3301N 06611W 6970 03153 0056 +092 +076 153083 084 044 004 00
043400 3302N 06609W 6954 03176 0058 +092 +077 152081 082 044 001 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

377
URNT12 KNHC 220438
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 22/03:57:40Z
B. 31 deg 30 min N
067 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. 61 kt
E. 202 deg 29 nm
F. 289 deg 75 kt
G. 202 deg 28 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3047 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. CO16-55
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 1103A BILL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 04:09:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 04:09:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 201 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
INNER EYEWALL COVERAGE 50 PERCENT NE SEMICIRCLE
;

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

Sustained winds at 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph during the last 5 minutes at the reporting station in Bermuda listed below...
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2009

[HURAKAN]

URNT12 KNHC 220438
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 22/03:57:40Z
B. 31 deg 30 min N
067 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. 61 kt
E. 202 deg 29 nm
F. 289 deg 75 kt
G. 202 deg 28 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3047 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. CO16-55
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 1103A BILL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 04:09:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 04:09:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 201 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
INNER EYEWALL COVERAGE 50 PERCENT NE SEMICIRCLE

121 knots. If I remember correctly, the previous vortex message in the NE quadrant measured 111 knots

[HURAKAN]

087
URNT15 KNHC 220444
AF303 1103A BILL HDOB 24 20090822
043430 3303N 06607W 6965 03169 0061 +096 +068 150082 082 043 003 00
043500 3305N 06606W 6966 03169 0057 +101 +059 150084 085 044 002 00
043530 3306N 06604W 6966 03170 0070 +094 +059 152087 088 042 001 00
043600 3308N 06602W 6963 03175 0069 +094 +056 154088 088 043 003 00
043630 3309N 06600W 6967 03172 0077 +092 +058 153085 087 042 002 00
043700 3311N 06558W 6964 03178 0081 +090 +064 154084 085 042 001 00
043730 3312N 06556W 6970 03174 0077 +094 +065 153083 083 040 002 00
043800 3314N 06554W 6967 03177 0082 +091 +060 153081 082 040 002 03
043830 3316N 06555W 6967 03181 0085 +090 +068 150081 084 999 999 03
043900 3317N 06557W 6964 03182 0083 +092 +057 148079 081 999 999 03
043930 3317N 06559W 6981 03161 0080 +096 +059 149075 076 036 005 03
044000 3316N 06602W 6965 03182 0086 +088 +067 148077 077 040 001 00
044030 3316N 06605W 6970 03174 0086 +088 +067 147077 078 042 003 00
044100 3317N 06608W 6967 03175 0084 +086 +062 146078 079 043 001 00
044130 3317N 06611W 6967 03172 0077 +091 +058 147080 080 044 002 00
044200 3317N 06614W 6969 03169 0076 +090 +058 147080 081 045 003 00
044230 3317N 06616W 6962 03176 0073 +090 +062 145080 080 042 003 00
044300 3317N 06619W 6973 03161 0063 +098 +058 144079 079 043 001 00
044330 3317N 06622W 6961 03174 0060 +097 +058 141075 077 045 001 00
044400 3317N 06625W 6967 03164 0060 +096 +067 140075 076 045 003 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

494
URNT15 KNHC 220454
AF303 1103A BILL HDOB 25 20090822
044430 3317N 06628W 6967 03163 0064 +089 +078 140075 076 045 003 00
044500 3317N 06631W 6971 03154 0063 +088 +075 141077 078 046 003 00
044530 3317N 06634W 6962 03163 0060 +090 +075 140077 078 046 004 00
044600 3318N 06637W 6970 03150 0055 +090 +073 140079 079 047 004 00
044630 3318N 06640W 6965 03153 0050 +090 +072 140080 081 046 004 00
044700 3318N 06643W 6970 03147 0045 +092 +082 140079 080 047 004 00
044730 3318N 06646W 6963 03152 0041 +091 +086 140080 081 048 003 00
044800 3318N 06649W 6968 03144 0042 +088 +088 140081 082 047 007 00
044830 3318N 06652W 6970 03137 0039 +090 +084 139080 080 046 003 00
044900 3318N 06654W 6966 03142 0039 +090 +089 137076 078 048 004 00
044930 3318N 06657W 6967 03138 0029 +095 +082 136076 076 047 003 00
045000 3318N 06700W 6968 03135 0029 +094 +081 134076 076 048 006 00
045030 3318N 06703W 6965 03137 0029 +092 +083 133075 076 048 007 00
045100 3318N 06706W 6969 03130 0027 +091 +085 131076 077 047 006 00
045130 3319N 06709W 6966 03132 0022 +094 +090 131076 077 048 006 00
045200 3319N 06712W 6967 03128 0021 +091 +091 130075 076 049 005 00
045230 3319N 06715W 6970 03124 0025 +089 +089 126076 076 048 009 00
045300 3319N 06718W 6964 03128 0019 +091 +079 123074 075 048 011 00
045330 3319N 06722W 6968 03121 0016 +092 +092 123074 075 049 009 00
045400 3319N 06725W 6961 03130 0017 +090 +090 125074 075 050 010 00
$$
;

[jinftl]

Accuweather Canada forecast for Halifax on Sunday (as of time of post)

Hurricane conditions, including heavy rain and damaging winds; watch for flooding
Winds: SSW at 73 mph
Wind Gusts: 138 mph
http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=0&fday=3

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

886
URNT15 KNHC 220504
AF303 1103A BILL HDOB 26 20090822
045430 3319N 06728W 6971 03115 0009 +094 +094 121076 078 050 011 00
045500 3319N 06731W 6963 03125 0009 +092 +092 117079 080 051 010 00
045530 3319N 06734W 6967 03119 0007 +093 +093 118079 082 051 009 00
045600 3319N 06737W 6970 03113 0008 +091 +091 118078 079 051 012 00
045630 3319N 06740W 6965 03118 9990 +086 +999 115081 082 052 011 01
045700 3320N 06744W 6964 03116 9990 +081 +999 115078 079 052 011 01
045730 3320N 06747W 6967 03111 9990 +085 +999 114080 081 051 010 01
045800 3320N 06750W 6964 03114 9990 +088 +999 112082 083 049 011 01
045830 3320N 06753W 6967 03109 0007 +081 +081 108084 085 049 010 01
045900 3320N 06756W 6968 03108 0010 +083 +083 103080 082 048 011 01
045930 3320N 06800W 6969 03105 0007 +081 +081 102075 075 049 009 01
050000 3320N 06803W 6967 03107 9990 +076 +999 101076 077 049 008 01
050030 3320N 06806W 6966 03109 9990 +075 +999 102075 076 050 009 01
050100 3320N 06809W 6967 03104 9990 +072 +999 099068 070 048 009 01
050130 3320N 06812W 6974 03096 9990 +077 +999 101061 062 048 010 01
050200 3320N 06816W 6964 03109 9986 +098 +098 102059 060 048 007 00
050230 3320N 06818W 6963 03111 9986 +101 +101 101061 062 046 005 00
050300 3320N 06822W 6974 03099 9981 +105 +099 100061 062 046 004 00
050330 3320N 06825W 6963 03114 9980 +106 +096 100062 063 045 003 00
050400 3320N 06828W 6968 03107 9982 +105 +098 099065 065 046 003 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

097
URNT15 KNHC 220514
AF303 1103A BILL HDOB 27 20090822
050430 3320N 06831W 6968 03108 9983 +104 +097 096063 065 046 003 00
050500 3321N 06834W 6969 03105 9984 +103 +093 094061 061 045 005 00
050530 3321N 06837W 6966 03109 9986 +102 +099 096062 063 047 004 00
050600 3321N 06840W 6963 03114 9989 +100 +100 094062 063 045 005 00
050630 3321N 06843W 6966 03111 9996 +090 +090 093063 065 044 005 01
050700 3321N 06846W 6972 03103 9990 +089 +999 092062 063 044 009 01
050730 3321N 06849W 6966 03113 9990 +089 +999 093062 063 047 008 01
050800 3321N 06853W 6965 03114 9990 +082 +999 090064 066 051 010 01
050830 3321N 06856W 6985 03092 9991 +097 +097 093067 068 049 010 00
050900 3321N 06859W 6963 03113 9990 +099 +099 094067 070 045 008 00
050930 3321N 06901W 6967 03110 9986 +103 +103 093064 065 044 007 00
051000 3321N 06904W 6953 03124 9990 +088 +999 094067 069 042 010 01
051030 3321N 06907W 6969 03108 9988 +094 +094 090066 068 044 010 01
051100 3321N 06910W 6963 03116 9993 +097 +097 087068 070 044 011 00
051130 3321N 06912W 6966 03113 9990 +089 +999 083071 075 044 011 01
051200 3321N 06915W 6970 03110 9994 +094 +094 093062 063 045 010 01
051230 3321N 06918W 6969 03115 9990 +080 +999 088060 061 045 017 01
051300 3321N 06920W 6960 03130 9990 +081 +999 084060 063 045 017 01
051330 3321N 06923W 6962 03127 9990 +082 +999 074043 046 043 016 01
051400 3321N 06925W 6964 03122 9990 +084 +999 068040 044 045 016 01
$$
;

[HURAKAN]