New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[ROCK]

Also, the wave behind this one looks descent, and they seem far enough apart not to impede one another.

I agree...not to shabby even if MJO is moving out.

[ronjon]

HPCs Discussion on this wave:

EWD A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAY
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING FL BY
FRIDAY. CMC CONTS TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE WHILE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG CLUSTERING OF LOWS IN THIS REGION
LATE WEEK. CHI VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS STRONGLY
FAVOR THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
LESSER BUT STILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX
AND BAHAMAS REGION. LATEST 12Z UKMET/CMC MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
INDICATING A TROPICAL WAVE OR GREATER WILL BE IN THIS REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK. SFC POSITIONS DEPICTED BY DAILY HPC/TPC COORDINATION.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, I just found out about this one via the TWO. Does this system look like it is going to fishing, or head towards the Caribbean, or something else? Is it too early to tell lol?

[Ivanhater]

Ok, looking at the 12z Nogaps. it moves this wave towards the NE Caribbean then hitting S. Florida by 180 hours. Also something in the Southern Caribbean moving through the Yucatan channel.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Doesn't look too good but it has a nice circulation (likely mid-level). The next d-max could be pivotal.

[blp]

12Z GFDL Bill run has a weak surface feature approaching Florida. Looks like our feature.

[otowntiger]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Doesn't look too good but it has a nice circulation (likely mid-level). The next d-max could be pivotal.

Not sure what you mean by "doesn't look too good", but that is one healthy looking wave to me. It may not look too good for a hurricane, lol, but what do you excpect? It's not even an invest yet!

[HURAKAN]

Not sure what you mean by "doesn't look too good", but that is one healthy looking wave to me. It may not look too good for a hurricane, lol, but what do you excpect? It's not even an invest yet!

Convection-wise, which is very important for development, it doesn't look too good.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of action in the Atlantic

[wxman57]

European keeps it NE of the Caribbean and farther east than Bill beyond that, possibly Bermuda threat. Long way out there, though. EC did the best with Bill's long-range track, and even the GFS suggests a weaker high north of this system than with Bill.

[KWT]

Looking at the GFS and the other models I don't think any of them are actually forming this wave...well the CMC and the but the GFS certainly doesn't.

Instead they seem to develop something further west, but there isn't anything really there right now.

For example the GFS has something in the Bahamas in just 72hrs, no chance is it our wave we are watching but something else, quite what I'm really not sure but I guess its coming from the sheared wave to the west which eventually lifts out from the ITCZ.

Wxman57...the 12z ECM doesn't develop this feature IMO...it develops something around 70W in 96hrs, which seems to be very quick indeed IMO, the GFS is even faster with that feature. I don't exactly how far it is to travel but I'd imagine its going to have to really rip across the Atlantic...possible but with a weak high aloft I'm doubting it to be honest?

Still should be interesting to see how it all plays out!

[otowntiger]

Not sure what you mean by "doesn't look too good", but that is one healthy looking wave to me. It may not look too good for a hurricane, lol, but what do you excpect? It's not even an invest yet!

Convection-wise, which is very important for development, it doesn't look too good.

Just took another look via infrared and you are right, there's not much there if anything. Pretty much just a swirl of clouds for now. But perhaps even more importantly the models are more and more saying this thing will be another fish, maybe even more dramatically swerving harmlessly out to sea. Looks like a very uneventful (ok, I'll admit it- BORING) pattern shaping up.

[otowntiger]

[cycloneye]

The 18 UTC surface analysis chart from TAFB shows a 1010 mb low attached to the wave axis.

[Patrick99]

Not a fish until something actually forms. And if something forms further west, chances of a "fish" are reduced. Not ready on 8/21 to write this off as an all-recurve season yet.

[wxman57]

Looking at the GFS and the other models I don't think any of them are actually forming this wave...well the CMC and the but the GFS certainly doesn't.

Instead they seem to develop something further west, but there isn't anything really there right now.

For example the GFS has something in the Bahamas in just 72hrs, no chance is it our wave we are watching but something else, quite what I'm really not sure but I guess its coming from the sheared wave to the west which eventually lifts out from the ITCZ.

Wxman57...the 12z ECM doesn't develop this feature IMO...it develops something around 70W in 96hrs, which seems to be very quick indeed IMO, the GFS is even faster with that feature. I don't exactly how far it is to travel but I'd imagine its going to have to really rip across the Atlantic...possible but with a weak high aloft I'm doubting it to be honest?

Still should be interesting to see how it all plays out!

Yeah, the EC could be developing something ahead of it. The 850mb vorticity isn't in the right spot. But it does indicate a fairly weak Bermuda high to the north - an indication that if something was to develop then it may recurve east of the Caribbean and the U.S. The fact that none of the models is bullish on development may indicate that it'll struggle to develop, if it does at all. All the models certainly did see Bill as developing, and they were right. They were iffy with Ana, and it struggled then dissipated.

[wxman57]

Not a fish until something actually forms. And if something forms further west, chances of a "fish" are reduced. Not ready on 8/21 to write this off as an all-recurve season yet.

Analog seasons suggest about half the storms may recurve northeast of the Caribbean this year.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

373
ABNT20 KNHC 212341
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Sanibel]

Needs to re-fire.

If it does there's plenty of energy in that ITCZ band to its SW.