New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[otowntiger]

Definitely worthy of an invest,though the NHC appears busy with some other storm. Convection increasing, circulation increasing, separating form ITCZ. All signs of development.

I know it's obviously early in the game, but any idea of what the synoptics are going to be doing for this storm should it develop? I saw a model yesterday showing a system developing and following Bills path almost exactly. What if anything looks to be different about what could be this system? Its seems to be further north than where Bill was born so I'm guessing that could have impacts on a path as well.

[HURAKAN]

Always great to see wxman57 give the green light and not call bones!!! I think the NHC will mention it at 2 pm.

[wxman57]

Definitely worthy of an invest,though the NHC appears busy with some other storm. Convection increasing, circulation increasing, separating form ITCZ. All signs of development.

I know it's obviously early in the game, but any idea of what the synoptics are going to be doing for this storm should it develop? I saw a model yesterday showing a system developing and following Bills path almost exactly. What if anything looks to be different about what could be this system? Its seems to be further north than where Bill was born so I'm guessing that could have impacts on a path as well.

The 12Z GFS is in through 96 hours. It doesn't initialize the disturbance well, but the flow pattern in advance of it would suggest a NE Caribbean threat in 5-6 days. High pressure in advance of it looks stronger than when Bill passed through.

[KWT]

Yeah I'm a little surprised this hasn't been given a code yellow at the very least, think its going to be an invest soon enough though as has been mentioned...and the ECM, which did so well with Bill in the end (despite short term errors) is progging a Bahamas risk down the line.

So well worthy of watching this one!

[wxman57]

Here's a recent colorized sat pic. I'm seeing strong rotation now near 12.1N/31.8W.

[srainhoutx]

I made this post in the Model thread, but thought it might we worthwhile in this Topic...

Here is a snipet from the HPC this morning...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
847 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 25 2009 - 12Z FRI AUG 28 2009


MONSOONAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN
ROCKIES AT LEAST THRU MID WEEK WHILE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD THRU THE PLAINS
TUES-THURS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
POSSIBLE GULF COAST SHOWERS AND STRONGER COMNVECTION MAY BE
TRIGGERED BY A POTENTIAL RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LOW THAT MAY BREAK OFF
FROM THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF WED-THURS. EWD A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING FL BY FRIDAY. CMC CONTS TO
BE VERY AGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A
STRONG CLUSTERING OF LOWS IN THIS REGION LATE WEEK. CHI VERTICAL
VELOCITY POTENTIAL CHARTS STRONGLY FAVOR THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WITH SOME LESSER BUT STILL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX AND BAHAMAS REGION.
JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

[otowntiger]

Definitely worthy of an invest,though the NHC appears busy with some other storm. Convection increasing, circulation increasing, separating form ITCZ. All signs of development.

I know it's obviously early in the game, but any idea of what the synoptics are going to be doing for this storm should it develop? I saw a model yesterday showing a system developing and following Bills path almost exactly. What if anything looks to be different about what could be this system? Its seems to be further north than where Bill was born so I'm guessing that could have impacts on a path as well.

The 12Z GFS is in through 96 hours. It doesn't initialize the disturbance well, but the flow pattern in advance of it would suggest a NE Caribbean threat in 5-6 days. High pressure in advance of it looks stronger than when Bill passed through.

Thanks wxman57! I know that you are usually not too easily impressed so if you think this one has some potential, it will garner my attention.

[wxman57]

Thanks wxman57! I know that you are usually not too easily impressed so if you think this one has some potential, it will garner my attention.

It does take a lot to impress me. This one impresses me. Surely, the NHC will identify it on the next tropical outlook? And an invest soon? (and I'm not calling you "Shirley").

[Sanibel]

Obvious developer. Don't need WXman for that.


Looks like the season overcame the negative conditions. CV is the source, but anywhere at any time now as far as possibility.


My guess is another recurve, but you know what my guess is worth.

[KWT]

Well the 12z GFS doesn't even really see this and seems to offer a rather odd looking solution in the end. Whilst there seems to be one weakness after another much does depend on the timing.

[ConvergenceZone]

now, since wxman57 is saying that it COULD be a NE Carib threat if it develops, does that mean that the recurve would happen AFTER it gets to the NE Carib? I know everything is speculation at this point, but just something to talk about...

[KWT]

I'd guess so CZ, thats stil la big if as well, the weakness is there but the GFS develops something (not sure its this wave though given its quite a bit to the NW?) and that helps to strengthen the weakness.

We shall see, I think the ECM idea is a pretty good one with a system coming close to the NE Caribbean then dependant totally on other features.

[wxman57]

now, since wxman57 is saying that it COULD be a NE Carib threat if it develops, does that mean that the recurve would happen AFTER it gets to the NE Carib? I know everything is speculation at this point, but just something to talk about...

Yes. The high is stronger, but it doesn't appear to maintain that intensity after 5-6 days. In fact, GFS indicates a quite weak high to the north of the disturbance after 6 days. So it could turn northward east of the U.S. Kind of early to have much confidence in something that's not initialized well in the models.

[Derek Ortt]

easily could be our next one

[KWT]

Yep Wxman57 it has a nice weakness present around 70W however I can't help but feel the GFS is overdoing that weakness simply because the model is developing something there, be it our wave or something totally different and that is keeping the weakness open for longer then otherwise may be the case?

The fact the ECM also develops something seems to suggest some confidence.

[Sanibel]

I should be more careful and wait to see if it develops first. There's a good swirl but it is a little weak and could poof if negative conditions further on were stronger than it.

My offhand look at this one is that it will develop and entrain that ITCZ energy beneath it into it.


From looking at the east-oriented Atlantic ridge it doesn't look like the kind of set-up as in recent years where a strong ridge extension sets-up in the western Atlantic. My previous guesstimate where those low-trackers would adjust more towards Florida assumed an incremental northward lifting of the steering pattern. Only what happened was a leap to an oceanic recurve pattern. So much for the presumption of logic.

[KWT]

Its the type of pattern that does tend to favor E.Coast hits. Whilst Bill did lift up too soon you can see that it really isn't that far from a NE US risk, so we shall see Sanibel, I think this season has set-up in the Atlantic much closer to 2006 but still pretty early days for Cape Verde storms.

[vbhoutex]

I should be more careful and wait to see if it develops first. There's a good swirl but it is a little weak and could poof if negative conditions further on were stronger than it.

My offhand look at this one is that it will develop and entrain that ITCZ energy beneath it into it.


From looking at the east-oriented Atlantic ridge it doesn't look like the kind of set-up as in recent years where a strong ridge extension sets-up in the western Atlantic. My previous guesstimate where those low-trackers would adjust more towards Florida assumed an incremental northward lifting of the steering pattern. Only what happened was a leap to an oceanic recurve pattern. So much for the presumption of logic.

You got that right!! I remember several talking about Bill early in the game(among them me) and how since he was at such a low latitude he would probably be a Island/Caribbean/possibly GOM storm and Ana would do the recurve. Man were we fooled!!

[alan1961]

I should be more careful and wait to see if it develops first. There's a good swirl but it is a little weak and could poof if negative conditions further on were stronger than it.

My offhand look at this one is that it will develop and entrain that ITCZ energy beneath it into it.


From looking at the east-oriented Atlantic ridge it doesn't look like the kind of set-up as in recent years where a strong ridge extension sets-up in the western Atlantic. My previous guesstimate where those low-trackers would adjust more towards Florida assumed an incremental northward lifting of the steering pattern. Only what happened was a leap to an oceanic recurve pattern. So much for the presumption of logic.

My offhand look at this one is that it will develop and entrain that ITCZ energy beneath it into it

As happened to Bill in his early life, yes i'd go for that Sanibel

[cycloneye]

CMC starts from the same position this is now so is from this wave.It develops a quite strong system just north of Bahamas.See animation at link below.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation