So When And Where Is "Danny Boy" Coming?

[cyclonebuster]

Oh Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling

[Frank2]

Aside from any hybrid GOM system (mentioned in the other thread), nothing on the horizon from the Atlantic side ATTM, especially since we are now entering the negative MJO phase, so that really dampers any tropical cyclone formation chances (though not impossible) until the negative phase ends a week or so after Labor Day, though some models have been indicating a CV wave might have a chance at development during the next 10 days or so...

Frank

[StormClouds63]

Just a guess ... September 5 in the western Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll go with September 15th, Carib...

[cyclonebuster]

Aside from any hybrid GOM system (mentioned in the other thread), nothing on the horizon from the Atlantic side ATTM, especially since we are now entering the negative MJO phase, so that really dampers any tropical cyclone formation chances (though not impossible) until the negative phase ends a week or so after Labor Day, though some models have been indicating a CV wave might have a chance at development during the next 10 days or so...

Frank

Thanks Frank for the reply! Prehaps, in my next simulation "Danny Boy" may cross the Gulfstream. Since I physically proved they work in the video the pipes may get their chance.

[KWT]

From the front either in the Gulf or the W.Atlantic, about 26th August, sooner then I think some are thinking...

[cyclonebuster]

From the front either in the Gulf or the W.Atlantic, about 26th August, sooner then I think some are thinking...

That ULL in the EXTERME Western Carribean may also be a player in few days.

[KWT]

Possibly, I'm quite interested in the wave that is heading towards the west Atlantic in about 4-5 days time, with a front stalled down in that region could be the trigger needed for formation, such a classic El nino formation!

[Macrocane]

I agree with KWT there may be something to watch in about 5-6 days.

[Jinkers]

Labor Day weekend..Carribean

[cyclonebuster]

Perhaps today at 13N 31W???




Oh Danny boy, THE PIPES, THE PIPES ARE CALLING
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
The summer's gone, and all the roses falling
'Tis you, 'tis you must go and I must bide.
But come ye back when summer's in the meadow
Or when the valley's hushed and white with snow
'Tis I'll be here in sunshine or in shadow
Oh Danny boy, oh Danny boy, I love you so.

And when you come, and all the flowers are dying
If I am dead, as dead I well may be
You'll come and find the place where I am lying
And kneel and say an "Ave" there for me.
And I shall hear, tho' soft you tread above me
And all my grave will warmer, sweeter be
For you will bend and tell me that you love me
And I shall sleep in peace until you come to me.

[cyclonebuster]

Which one wins out? The one in the center or the one further East? Or do they Both form? Or do they both dissipate to nothing?

[x-y-no]

It gets a mention in the 2pm TWO:

ABNT20 KNHC 211742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cyclonebuster]

WOW! Cape Verde Season is kicking off some good Vorts. off the African coast.

[Derek Ortt]

dont often see development in the Carib in the second half of an el nino year

[KWT]

Lili and I suppose Isodore are the only ones I can think off in recent years.

Saying that thus far this hasn't been very typical of an El nino, I mean Ana and Bill both formed below 20N so I think thus far El nino conditions haven't really bedded in, esp given its still pretty weak and in its formative phase.

[cyclonebuster]

I am confident this will be Danny very soon as he heads for warmer waters! Wind shear may be a problem for him in the next day or two but after that it is clear sailing for him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[vbhoutex]

Gee, sure looks like Hurricane Bill to me. BUSTED!!!!