ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[massweathernet]

The eye has become slightly eroded on the western side since the new convection has fired up. Hopefully it'll recover!

You sure you want that? Even if it slammed into New England?

Well if the eyewall does fully recover, it'll be short lived before it begins to interact with cooler and then colder waters.

[Derek Ortt]

URNT15 KNHC 210350
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 14 20090821
034100 2459N 06434W 6970 02723 9526 +147 +077 325020 022 033 001 00
034130 2500N 06432W 6965 02724 9514 +149 +079 319014 016 029 001 00
034200 2501N 06431W 6974 02707 9503 +156 +081 335007 011 027 001 03
034230 2502N 06429W 6962 02721 9498 +155 +084 179003 007 024 002 00
034300 2503N 06428W 6970 02704 9490 +161 +087 161013 016 025 000 03
034330 2504N 06426W 6967 02709 9484 +165 +090 148023 027 026 002 00
034400 2506N 06425W 6967 02710 9493 +158 +093 147032 034 035 001 00
034430 2507N 06424W 6970 02710 9499 +157 +096 145041 044 043 003 00
034500 2509N 06422W 6963 02727 9511 +152 +098 138049 051 053 004 03
034530 2510N 06421W 6967 02729 9523 +148 +100 139059 063 067 004 00
034600 2511N 06420W 6965 02743 9542 +142 +100 142075 080 078 001 03
034630 2512N 06418W 6968 02756 9568 +131 +100 143090 092 092 000 00
034700 2513N 06417W 6967 02774 9589 +130 +099 143098 100 091 008 00
034730 2515N 06416W 6959 02801 9628 +110 +097 147107 115 090 021 00
034800 2516N 06414W 6975 02800 9666 +095 +091 146124 128 090 021 00
034830 2517N 06413W 6966 02829 9691 +090 +082 145123 124 089 021 00
034900 2518N 06412W 6982 02830 9727 +080 +073 144121 123 085 024 00
034930 2519N 06411W 6964 02876 9751 +078 +064 142119 122 080 025 00
035000 2520N 06409W 6975 02880 9767 +082 +057 141120 122 080 022 00
035030 2521N 06408W 6958 02917 9786 +082 +052 141118 122 078 017 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 210400
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 15 20090821
035100 2523N 06407W 6973 02911 9803 +082 +049 142112 113 079 009 00
035130 2524N 06406W 6965 02938 9816 +086 +045 143108 108 078 007 00
035200 2525N 06404W 6968 02944 9820 +094 +041 143105 106 075 005 00
035230 2526N 06403W 6967 02958 9828 +099 +039 143101 102 075 004 00
035300 2527N 06402W 6967 02967 9831 +105 +038 143099 100 072 001 00
035330 2528N 06400W 6967 02976 9835 +111 +037 143097 097 074 000 00
035400 2530N 06359W 6967 02984 9848 +108 +039 144097 099 074 000 00
035430 2531N 06358W 6965 02995 9862 +103 +041 145097 098 072 001 00
035500 2532N 06356W 6969 02998 9873 +101 +043 146097 098 070 002 00
035530 2533N 06355W 6967 03006 9883 +100 +044 145096 097 069 002 00
035600 2534N 06354W 6967 03016 9891 +100 +044 145095 096 070 001 00
035630 2536N 06352W 6964 03023 9896 +101 +045 146093 094 069 002 00
035700 2537N 06351W 6970 03026 9909 +096 +045 147091 094 067 006 00
035730 2538N 06349W 6963 03037 9926 +086 +045 147094 096 066 008 00
035800 2539N 06348W 6973 03028 9932 +083 +043 147096 098 068 015 00
035830 2541N 06347W 6967 03036 9944 +077 +042 145097 098 070 015 00
035900 2542N 06345W 6969 03042 9949 +077 +041 145096 100 067 013 00
035930 2543N 06344W 6967 03045 9958 +074 +040 145100 102 065 014 00
040000 2544N 06343W 6968 03051 9958 +078 +039 149096 099 065 009 00
040030 2545N 06341W 6964 03060 9959 +083 +038 149092 093 066 008 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 210410
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 16 20090821
040100 2547N 06340W 6967 03062 9966 +081 +037 149091 093 063 009 00
040130 2548N 06339W 6968 03062 9970 +080 +035 148094 096 064 007 00
040200 2549N 06337W 6967 03065 9976 +079 +035 147095 096 064 009 00
040230 2550N 06336W 6966 03075 9986 +077 +035 145095 096 064 008 00
040300 2552N 06334W 6968 03075 9994 +073 +034 143092 093 062 008 00
040330 2553N 06333W 6967 03084 0006 +067 +034 142095 097 062 009 00
040400 2554N 06332W 6965 03087 0014 +065 +033 140097 097 062 007 00
040430 2555N 06331W 6967 03088 0016 +066 +030 139097 098 060 007 00
040500 2556N 06329W 6970 03089 0029 +059 +028 140097 097 060 006 00
040530 2557N 06328W 6965 03100 0037 +057 +026 141097 097 059 006 00
040600 2558N 06327W 6969 03097 0036 +062 +023 142096 096 059 006 00
040630 2600N 06325W 6964 03109 0030 +070 +021 143093 093 057 006 00
040700 2601N 06324W 6970 03103 0029 +074 +019 141089 091 058 006 00
040730 2602N 06323W 6965 03115 0025 +082 +018 139085 086 058 007 00
040800 2603N 06321W 6964 03118 0026 +084 +018 138085 086 057 007 00
040830 2604N 06320W 6969 03117 0037 +076 +019 140086 086 057 007 00
040900 2605N 06319W 6966 03123 0047 +072 +020 142085 086 060 009 00
040930 2607N 06317W 6971 03117 0051 +070 +020 142082 083 060 008 00
041000 2608N 06316W 6968 03123 0057 +066 +020 143081 082 058 008 00
041030 2609N 06315W 6966 03129 0047 +078 +019 141079 079 057 006 00
$$
;

URNT12 KNHC 210414
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 21/03:42:30Z
B. 25 deg 02 min N
064 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2672 m
D. 73 kt
E. 239 deg 13 nm
F. 329 deg 84 kt
G. 240 deg 15 nm
H. 951 mb
I. 14 C / 3046 m
J. 17 C / 3046 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E33/40/30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.2 nm
P. AF300 0703A BILL OB 05
MAX FL WIND 84 KT SW QUAD 03:38:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 03:48:10Z
;

pressure now 951mb. It has weakened again just a little. don't have the extreme FL winds

[HurricaneHunter914]

Bill still appears to be shrinking and now the eye is ragged.

[btangy]

The remainder of the publicly available guidance: 00Z NOGAPS has shifted a bit right with Bill's track, 00Z CMC is a bit N at first, then comes back to the 12Z position just E of 70W and then is slightly right of its previous track after 48 hours. Both still show significant threat for Nova Scotia. Both appear to support the NAM's depiction of the trough.

[Macrocane]

Poor Bill, seems like he is having a hard time righ now. I don't understand why is he struggling like that. SST are warm, there is little dry air mostly at his south but he has been in a drier environment before, the only thing a can think it's affecting Bill is some wind shear but it was supposed to be low at this time.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210420
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 17 20090821
041100 2610N 06313W 6967 03129 0053 +077 +019 140078 078 057 004 00
041130 2611N 06312W 6966 03133 0050 +078 +020 143078 079 056 004 00
041200 2613N 06311W 6967 03136 0048 +082 +023 144078 078 056 004 00
041230 2614N 06309W 6966 03135 0043 +090 +025 145076 077 057 004 00
041300 2615N 06308W 6966 03142 0047 +088 +029 146076 076 057 005 03
041330 2616N 06306W 6969 03143 0052 +085 +032 148075 075 056 005 00
041400 2617N 06305W 6965 03144 0055 +085 +034 147074 075 056 005 00
041430 2619N 06304W 6968 03148 0058 +085 +036 147075 076 056 004 03
041500 2620N 06302W 6967 03147 0063 +081 +038 145071 072 056 004 03
041530 2621N 06301W 6962 03154 0070 +077 +040 145070 071 057 004 00
041600 2622N 06259W 6969 03148 0071 +076 +042 148071 072 053 004 00
041630 2624N 06258W 6965 03158 0074 +078 +043 147073 073 054 005 03
041700 2625N 06257W 6967 03154 0078 +076 +044 145072 072 054 003 03
041730 2626N 06255W 6967 03155 0079 +075 +044 146072 072 053 004 03
041800 2627N 06254W 6966 03158 0079 +077 +044 146069 071 054 006 00
041830 2629N 06252W 6971 03154 0078 +079 +043 147070 071 054 005 03
041900 2630N 06251W 6966 03164 0079 +079 +043 147069 070 051 004 00
041930 2631N 06249W 6968 03159 0079 +081 +043 147068 069 050 003 00
042000 2632N 06248W 6968 03161 0080 +082 +044 146068 069 049 005 00
042030 2634N 06247W 6969 03164 0085 +080 +045 142074 081 049 003 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210430
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 18 20090821
042100 2635N 06245W 6966 03167 0091 +075 +045 138082 082 047 004 00
042130 2636N 06244W 6972 03171 0119 +060 +044 137078 081 046 005 03
042200 2636N 06244W 6972 03171 0126 +056 +043 137074 075 999 999 03
042230 2638N 06247W 6965 03175 0118 +060 +040 137074 076 045 005 03
042300 2638N 06249W 6968 03163 0100 +070 +037 137078 080 049 003 03
042330 2638N 06251W 6968 03163 0088 +077 +036 137071 073 050 004 00
042400 2638N 06254W 6966 03166 0086 +077 +035 140071 071 050 004 00
042430 2638N 06256W 6969 03160 0077 +083 +035 142069 070 052 003 00
042500 2638N 06258W 6967 03162 0080 +080 +036 142068 069 051 004 00
042530 2638N 06301W 6962 03166 0081 +077 +037 138064 065 050 004 00
042600 2639N 06303W 6967 03161 0079 +077 +038 133063 065 050 003 00
042630 2639N 06305W 6969 03159 0091 +068 +038 135066 067 051 003 00
042700 2639N 06308W 6967 03155 0097 +062 +037 135068 069 051 005 00
042730 2639N 06310W 6966 03153 0086 +068 +035 134069 069 051 004 00
042800 2639N 06313W 6969 03152 0085 +068 +033 135069 069 049 004 00
042830 2640N 06315W 6967 03151 0093 +061 +031 136067 068 049 005 00
042900 2640N 06317W 6968 03147 0079 +071 +029 136067 068 049 005 00
042930 2640N 06320W 6962 03152 0074 +074 +028 136070 070 050 004 00
043000 2640N 06322W 6969 03145 0070 +075 +027 137069 070 051 004 00
043030 2640N 06325W 6966 03147 0068 +075 +026 135068 068 053 003 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210440
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 19 20090821
043100 2641N 06327W 6967 03145 0069 +075 +028 133068 069 054 004 00
043130 2641N 06330W 6967 03143 0066 +075 +031 132069 069 054 004 00
043200 2641N 06332W 6966 03145 0064 +080 +034 131068 069 054 004 00
043230 2641N 06335W 6969 03139 0060 +078 +037 130069 069 053 005 00
043300 2641N 06337W 6969 03138 0053 +080 +039 130070 070 053 005 00
043330 2642N 06340W 6966 03139 0053 +080 +040 128070 070 054 005 00
043400 2642N 06342W 6961 03149 0057 +078 +041 127071 071 055 006 03
043430 2642N 06345W 6966 03138 0055 +075 +041 126071 071 055 007 03
043500 2642N 06347W 6966 03135 0056 +075 +040 124071 071 055 007 00
043530 2642N 06350W 6967 03132 0054 +075 +038 122072 072 055 008 00
043600 2642N 06353W 6967 03130 0054 +074 +035 120072 072 056 007 00
043630 2642N 06355W 6966 03131 0049 +075 +033 119072 073 056 007 00
043700 2642N 06358W 6967 03126 0049 +075 +031 118072 072 057 007 00
043730 2642N 06400W 6966 03129 0055 +070 +030 117073 074 057 007 00
043800 2642N 06403W 6969 03125 0047 +074 +029 115074 075 056 009 00
043830 2643N 06406W 6969 03121 0043 +075 +028 114074 074 056 008 00
043900 2643N 06408W 6967 03120 0041 +080 +027 114074 074 056 010 00
043930 2643N 06411W 6965 03126 0042 +075 +027 114075 075 056 009 00
044000 2643N 06414W 6967 03123 0041 +077 +026 114074 075 056 008 00
044030 2643N 06416W 6969 03119 0041 +076 +026 114073 074 056 008 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210450
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 20 20090821
044100 2644N 06419W 6966 03121 0036 +080 +026 113074 075 056 008 00
044130 2644N 06422W 6967 03118 0034 +080 +026 112074 074 055 008 00
044200 2644N 06424W 6969 03120 0031 +083 +026 110074 074 055 008 00
044230 2645N 06427W 6965 03121 0027 +085 +027 109074 074 055 007 00
044300 2645N 06430W 6969 03119 0030 +084 +027 108072 072 056 007 00
044330 2645N 06432W 6963 03122 0035 +081 +028 107072 072 055 008 00
044400 2645N 06435W 6971 03115 0040 +076 +029 106072 073 056 008 00
044430 2646N 06438W 6963 03123 0045 +071 +029 103073 074 055 009 00
044500 2646N 06441W 6967 03121 0040 +077 +030 103071 073 056 008 00
044530 2646N 06443W 6968 03121 0042 +075 +030 102068 069 055 008 00
044600 2646N 06446W 6967 03122 0046 +072 +030 099068 069 054 008 00
044630 2647N 06449W 6966 03124 0043 +074 +030 098070 070 055 007 00
044700 2647N 06451W 6967 03122 0051 +068 +030 097069 070 055 009 00
044730 2647N 06454W 6969 03122 0039 +077 +029 095071 071 054 007 00
044800 2647N 06457W 6968 03122 0035 +080 +030 094070 071 054 006 00
044830 2647N 06459W 6965 03126 0031 +084 +030 094070 071 054 006 00
044900 2647N 06502W 6970 03120 0034 +082 +031 094070 072 054 007 00
044930 2648N 06505W 6966 03125 0027 +088 +032 093072 072 053 007 00
045000 2648N 06507W 6966 03125 0029 +087 +034 091070 070 053 005 00
045030 2648N 06510W 6968 03122 0035 +083 +035 091070 070 052 005 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210500
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 21 20090821
045100 2648N 06513W 6965 03130 0037 +083 +037 087067 068 052 005 00
045130 2648N 06515W 6969 03124 0040 +081 +038 087064 064 052 005 00
045200 2649N 06518W 6966 03129 0037 +083 +040 088064 064 052 005 00
045230 2649N 06521W 6967 03127 0039 +084 +042 089063 063 053 004 00
045300 2649N 06523W 6967 03129 0045 +080 +043 088062 063 052 005 00
045330 2649N 06526W 6967 03130 0044 +080 +044 080065 066 053 005 00
045400 2649N 06528W 6967 03133 0040 +085 +046 082063 063 054 004 00
045430 2649N 06531W 6967 03133 0044 +083 +048 079060 061 053 005 00
045500 2650N 06534W 6967 03134 0045 +082 +050 079060 060 051 004 00
045530 2650N 06536W 6970 03129 0044 +084 +053 080060 061 053 006 00
045600 2650N 06539W 6966 03140 0042 +087 +055 082058 059 053 006 00
045630 2650N 06541W 6967 03136 0038 +090 +056 079057 058 054 005 00
045700 2650N 06544W 6969 03139 0035 +094 +058 078052 053 054 005 00
045730 2650N 06546W 6966 03141 0042 +091 +058 076049 051 053 005 00
045800 2650N 06549W 6967 03147 0042 +094 +058 070047 048 053 006 00
045830 2651N 06551W 6965 03149 0051 +087 +057 069046 047 053 005 00
045900 2651N 06554W 6969 03145 0055 +085 +056 070047 047 054 006 00
045930 2651N 06556W 6969 03144 0054 +086 +055 071048 049 054 005 00
050000 2651N 06559W 6966 03148 0052 +088 +054 069048 049 053 006 00
050030 2651N 06601W 6966 03148 0061 +082 +053 066047 047 054 006 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210510
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 22 20090821
050100 2651N 06603W 6970 03145 0060 +084 +051 067046 047 052 006 00
050130 2651N 06606W 6968 03147 0054 +089 +049 061047 047 050 006 00
050200 2652N 06608W 6966 03147 0052 +089 +047 062049 049 052 003 00
050230 2652N 06611W 6967 03149 0051 +091 +047 058049 050 052 003 00
050300 2652N 06613W 6968 03147 0050 +092 +049 056050 050 051 003 00
050330 2652N 06615W 6966 03150 0051 +091 +052 056051 051 050 003 00
050400 2652N 06618W 6967 03150 0052 +090 +055 056050 051 051 004 00
050430 2652N 06620W 6967 03149 0054 +090 +058 056050 050 051 004 00
050500 2652N 06623W 6967 03153 0060 +085 +060 057050 050 051 004 00
050530 2653N 06625W 6967 03155 0066 +083 +061 057049 049 051 004 00
050600 2653N 06627W 6964 03160 0068 +080 +061 056049 050 051 004 00
050630 2653N 06630W 6967 03155 0064 +084 +061 055048 049 050 004 00
050700 2653N 06632W 6967 03153 0063 +086 +061 057048 048 050 003 00
050730 2653N 06634W 6967 03161 0066 +084 +062 056047 048 052 004 00
050800 2653N 06637W 6967 03156 0068 +087 +062 054046 046 051 003 03
050830 2652N 06638W 6964 03170 0074 +085 +063 053044 045 999 999 03
050900 2651N 06638W 6966 03157 0067 +085 +065 055042 042 048 003 03
050930 2650N 06637W 6967 03152 0063 +085 +066 057042 043 049 004 00
051000 2648N 06635W 6974 03148 0061 +085 +067 057044 044 050 003 00
051030 2647N 06634W 6966 03152 0063 +082 +067 055045 046 050 004 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210520
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 23 20090821
051100 2646N 06632W 6969 03147 0062 +083 +068 055045 047 050 004 00
051130 2645N 06631W 6970 03146 0056 +085 +067 052045 046 051 004 00
051200 2644N 06630W 6963 03151 0046 +090 +067 053044 045 050 004 00
051230 2643N 06629W 6970 03141 0042 +093 +067 052044 044 050 002 00
051300 2642N 06627W 6966 03145 0040 +092 +067 052045 045 050 004 00
051330 2640N 06626W 6970 03140 0038 +095 +068 050044 045 049 004 00
051400 2639N 06625W 6966 03143 0035 +095 +068 047045 046 050 004 00
051430 2638N 06623W 6971 03132 0031 +095 +068 046045 046 050 004 00
051500 2637N 06622W 6963 03142 0029 +095 +068 045046 047 051 004 00
051530 2636N 06621W 6968 03134 0031 +095 +068 045046 047 050 004 00
051600 2634N 06619W 6971 03131 0029 +095 +069 048046 049 051 004 00
051630 2633N 06618W 6968 03132 0026 +095 +069 049043 044 051 004 00
051700 2632N 06617W 6970 03132 0023 +095 +070 050039 040 053 003 00
051730 2631N 06615W 6965 03134 0025 +095 +070 052040 040 053 004 00
051800 2630N 06614W 6970 03125 0029 +090 +070 052040 041 054 004 00
051830 2629N 06613W 6965 03129 0032 +085 +070 049040 040 054 004 00
051900 2627N 06611W 6967 03127 0026 +089 +068 045039 040 054 004 00
051930 2626N 06610W 6971 03119 0017 +095 +067 044041 042 053 004 00
052000 2625N 06609W 6973 03120 0017 +094 +066 044042 043 054 003 00
052030 2624N 06607W 6965 03125 0008 +100 +066 046043 043 053 004 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210530
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 24 20090821
052100 2623N 06606W 6967 03118 0006 +100 +067 048045 046 053 004 00
052130 2622N 06604W 6966 03115 0001 +100 +068 048046 047 053 004 00
052200 2620N 06603W 6966 03115 9991 +102 +068 048047 049 053 004 00
052230 2619N 06602W 6972 03103 9988 +102 +069 049050 050 052 004 00
052300 2618N 06601W 6962 03110 9987 +101 +070 048052 053 053 005 00
052330 2617N 06559W 6970 03096 9980 +101 +072 047052 053 053 005 00
052400 2616N 06558W 6967 03098 9982 +098 +072 045052 053 053 005 00
052430 2615N 06557W 6966 03096 9988 +091 +073 044053 053 054 005 00
052500 2613N 06555W 6973 03084 9996 +081 +073 043052 052 054 007 00
052530 2612N 06554W 6965 03091 9987 +085 +070 044052 055 055 008 00
052600 2611N 06553W 6969 03083 9984 +085 +066 041054 056 055 010 00
052630 2610N 06551W 6968 03079 9974 +091 +061 037053 053 055 009 00
052700 2609N 06550W 6966 03078 9963 +099 +057 037053 055 055 007 03
052730 2607N 06548W 6976 03068 9958 +101 +055 037054 055 056 006 00
052800 2606N 06547W 6961 03084 9955 +102 +053 035053 055 057 011 00
052830 2605N 06546W 6966 03076 9988 +073 +052 035053 055 059 016 00
052900 2604N 06544W 6956 03081 9984 +073 +050 043056 057 059 017 00
052930 2602N 06543W 6973 03058 9964 +085 +049 057060 061 059 013 03
053000 2601N 06542W 6968 03058 9952 +090 +050 058061 062 061 013 00
053030 2600N 06541W 6964 03061 9945 +091 +052 056060 062 065 027 00

[DreamworksSKG]

Guys I'm planning to go down to the Cape Sun Morning (thank god its a sunday so I won't have top fight boston traffic, just construction work zones ) to video and watch the waves . I am wondering where do you think the coolest spot to watch the waves would be -?

Chatham? Marconi Beach in Welfleet, Truro? Highland lighthouse area? or Provincetown? I can't get out to Martha's Vineyard or nantucket.

Also is it safe to go out to the Cape On Sunday or might I be in for a hurricane--and have to scramble to get off at the last second? I am just worried about getting stuck on the Cape if I go out there and people evac'ing at the last minute if it shifts at the last second---

What do you guys think?

Also I plan on going to the beach Sat. would there be any good waves at Hampton beach NH? Sat..?
Thanks!

--Jeff---

WIll hopefully have a good video link for you up in the near future.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210540
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 25 20090821
053100 2559N 06539W 6967 03051 9953 +078 +053 054068 075 066 032 00
053130 2558N 06538W 6950 03059 9945 +075 +054 055080 083 068 027 00
053200 2557N 06537W 6976 03022 9927 +087 +055 065074 078 064 013 00
053230 2556N 06536W 6966 03031 9907 +098 +056 066069 071 063 008 00
053300 2555N 06535W 6970 03020 9895 +105 +057 063062 064 064 006 00
053330 2554N 06534W 6967 03020 9890 +103 +058 061059 060 065 005 00
053400 2553N 06532W 6971 03007 9874 +111 +059 063066 070 063 006 00
053430 2552N 06531W 6953 03027 9870 +110 +061 057074 075 065 008 00
053500 2551N 06530W 6970 03002 9891 +087 +063 056074 075 066 017 00
053530 2550N 06529W 6973 02989 9886 +083 +065 061075 076 067 017 00
053600 2549N 06528W 6965 02989 9879 +083 +065 061070 076 067 015 00
053630 2548N 06527W 6969 02983 9858 +096 +064 058065 066 067 011 00
053700 2547N 06525W 6966 02982 9852 +096 +064 055061 062 065 010 00
053730 2546N 06524W 6968 02970 9838 +103 +063 050064 065 066 008 00
053800 2545N 06522W 6965 02968 9829 +105 +063 046065 066 071 004 00
053830 2544N 06521W 6965 02964 9826 +101 +063 042064 064 069 003 03
053900 2544N 06519W 6971 02948 9817 +101 +064 043063 065 063 003 00
053930 2543N 06518W 6963 02949 9803 +106 +066 042067 069 066 001 00
054000 2542N 06516W 6966 02933 9786 +109 +069 039072 073 065 000 00
054030 2541N 06515W 6970 02919 9766 +117 +072 040072 073 065 005 00

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210550
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 26 20090821
054100 2541N 06514W 6972 02901 9742 +124 +074 039073 074 067 006 00
054130 2540N 06512W 6966 02893 9728 +120 +076 038073 074 069 009 00
054200 2539N 06511W 6969 02877 9721 +112 +078 037077 080 074 013 00
054230 2538N 06509W 6963 02863 9698 +113 +078 038082 083 075 015 00
054300 2538N 06508W 6962 02844 9689 +101 +077 039079 081 076 016 00
054330 2537N 06506W 6975 02806 9661 +105 +077 036078 079 078 032 00
054400 2536N 06505W 6974 02776 9633 +103 +078 029076 081 083 023 00
054430 2535N 06503W 6948 02794 9601 +117 +080 032057 063 082 014 00
054500 2535N 06502W 6964 02765 9567 +137 +082 041042 047 069 002 03
054530 2534N 06500W 6973 02742 9548 +144 +085 050034 038 051 003 00
054600 2533N 06458W 6966 02741 9534 +149 +088 057028 030 041 003 03
054630 2532N 06457W 6966 02731 9522 +147 +093 053023 026 038 002 03
054700 2531N 06456W 6970 02717 9504 +158 +097 046017 020 041 004 03
054730 2529N 06454W 6963 02720 9491 +167 +103 037009 011 039 002 03
054800 2528N 06453W 6967 02716 9489 +165 +108 355003 004 033 004 03
054830 2527N 06451W 6965 02715 9489 +161 +113 268007 010 041 005 00
054900 2527N 06449W 6975 02700 9490 +160 +118 234014 017 043 006 03
054930 2526N 06447W 6967 02716 9494 +160 +122 206023 025 050 002 03
055000 2525N 06446W 6967 02723 9496 +166 +125 203032 035 052 003 00
055030 2523N 06445W 6966 02733 9503 +166 +127 204042 046 051 001 00

949.0 mb extrapolated

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

...BILL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...STILL HEADING QUICKLY NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 465 MILES...
750 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 925 MILES...1490 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND BILL COULD REGAIN
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BERMUDA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES GENERATED BY BILL.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.5N 64.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210600
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 27 20090821
055100 2522N 06444W 6967 02745 9516 +163 +129 209053 056 054 005 00
055130 2521N 06443W 6969 02752 9534 +158 +132 211061 064 062 003 00
055200 2520N 06441W 6960 02779 9553 +155 +133 215073 076 070 000 03
055230 2519N 06440W 6965 02791 9576 +153 +134 219081 086 074 001 03
055300 2518N 06439W 6972 02807 9606 +150 +134 220093 095 073 000 00
055330 2517N 06438W 6963 02846 9641 +142 +132 221092 096 075 003 00
055400 2516N 06437W 6967 02863 9665 +143 +130 222092 093 078 002 00
055430 2515N 06435W 6967 02886 9692 +137 +126 219088 090 073 006 00
055500 2513N 06434W 6965 02901 9724 +123 +122 219087 088 071 006 03
055530 2512N 06433W 6962 02916 9732 +129 +116 218090 090 073 005 03
055600 2511N 06432W 6978 02913 9753 +124 +109 214091 092 066 002 03
055630 2510N 06431W 6965 02935 9781 +110 +104 215091 091 069 004 03
055700 2509N 06430W 6964 02949 9796 +107 +098 214092 094 065 005 03
055730 2508N 06429W 6969 02946 9809 +104 +093 213092 093 999 999 03
055800 2507N 06428W 6963 02960 9813 +108 +090 213090 091 063 004 03
055830 2506N 06427W 6970 02964 9821 +109 +088 212091 092 062 005 03
055900 2505N 06426W 6967 02971 9827 +107 +087 214090 091 060 003 00
055930 2504N 06424W 6967 02977 9835 +108 +087 216088 089 060 002 00
060000 2503N 06423W 6966 02987 9846 +105 +086 216088 089 058 003 00
060030 2502N 06422W 6968 02989 9856 +105 +086 216087 088 056 001 00

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210610
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 28 20090821
060100 2501N 06421W 6966 02999 9863 +105 +085 217086 087 056 004 00
060130 2500N 06420W 6971 03000 9866 +105 +085 217085 085 056 004 00
060200 2459N 06419W 6963 03016 9874 +106 +085 216084 085 056 008 03
060230 2458N 06418W 6967 03016 9875 +110 +085 216083 084 055 003 00
060300 2457N 06417W 6969 03019 9883 +109 +086 216084 084 056 002 00
060330 2456N 06415W 6968 03025 9885 +112 +087 216084 084 056 005 00
060400 2455N 06414W 6960 03041 9890 +111 +088 215083 083 055 005 00
060430 2454N 06413W 6967 03038 9898 +110 +089 214081 081 056 006 00
060500 2453N 06412W 6966 03043 9903 +111 +090 213081 081 053 008 03
060530 2452N 06411W 6965 03052 9910 +110 +091 215081 081 053 009 03
060600 2450N 06410W 6966 03050 9915 +107 +091 214081 081 051 010 00
060630 2449N 06409W 6970 03051 9919 +108 +092 215081 081 051 009 03
060700 2448N 06407W 6967 03058 9923 +106 +092 215078 078 051 005 00
060730 2447N 06406W 6970 03058 9928 +107 +092 214077 079 052 004 00
060800 2446N 06405W 6962 03069 9924 +113 +092 216075 077 050 005 00
060830 2445N 06404W 6962 03074 9935 +109 +091 215074 074 051 005 00
060900 2444N 06403W 6967 03073 9942 +105 +092 215073 073 054 005 00
060930 2443N 06402W 6967 03077 9940 +108 +091 214073 074 055 004 00
061000 2442N 06401W 6967 03080 9945 +109 +091 215073 074 057 003 00
061030 2441N 06359W 6966 03082 9944 +112 +091 214070 070 056 005 00

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210620
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 29 20090821
061100 2440N 06358W 6969 03085 9951 +108 +092 215071 072 056 004 00
061130 2438N 06357W 6963 03093 9957 +107 +092 215069 070 057 005 03
061200 2437N 06356W 6970 03087 9962 +108 +091 215067 067 057 005 00
061230 2436N 06355W 6967 03091 9965 +105 +091 215064 065 058 006 00
061300 2435N 06354W 6967 03095 9975 +099 +092 217064 065 058 007 00
061330 2434N 06352W 6965 03101 9980 +098 +089 217061 062 058 008 03
061400 2433N 06351W 6971 03094 9993 +089 +087 219059 060 059 010 00
061430 2432N 06350W 6965 03104 0018 +071 +071 224059 059 059 011 00
061500 2430N 06349W 6969 03097 0021 +070 +070 228063 065 060 020 00
061530 2429N 06347W 6963 03106 0021 +069 +069 229065 066 060 021 00
061600 2428N 06346W 6970 03099 0029 +068 +064 228065 065 063 018 00
061630 2427N 06345W 6972 03100 0035 +065 +060 224067 068 065 019 00
061700 2426N 06344W 6959 03118 0030 +071 +057 213065 067 059 024 00
061730 2425N 06343W 6963 03114 0028 +074 +057 213063 064 055 017 00
061800 2424N 06341W 6964 03119 0034 +070 +057 214069 071 055 016 00
061830 2422N 06340W 6966 03118 0035 +071 +057 211067 068 054 014 00
061900 2421N 06339W 6968 03116 0034 +075 +057 209057 060 054 011 00
061930 2420N 06338W 6967 03121 0029 +081 +056 209052 052 052 009 00
062000 2419N 06337W 6967 03123 0028 +085 +056 207055 056 053 008 03
062030 2418N 06336W 6967 03125 0030 +086 +055 207059 061 999 999 03

[cheezyWXguy]

Poor Bill, seems like he is having a hard time righ now. I don't understand why is he struggling like that. SST are warm, there is little dry air mostly at his south but he has been in a drier environment before, the only thing a can think it's affecting Bill is some wind shear but it was supposed to be low at this time.

probably shear from the ULL to its west.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210630
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 30 20090821
062100 2417N 06334W 6968 03125 0032 +085 +053 209059 060 999 999 03
062130 2416N 06333W 6970 03124 0032 +088 +051 209063 065 999 999 03
062200 2415N 06332W 6962 03135 0036 +087 +049 210065 065 057 009 03
062230 2414N 06331W 6967 03132 0027 +095 +047 210066 066 999 999 03
062300 2413N 06330W 6969 03134 0028 +098 +045 209065 066 049 004 03
062330 2412N 06329W 6967 03136 0031 +095 +047 207065 065 999 999 03
062400 2410N 06328W 6966 03140 0045 +088 +051 204059 060 051 004 03
062430 2409N 06327W 6967 03143 0048 +086 +054 206057 059 052 004 03
062500 2408N 06325W 6967 03144 0040 +095 +057 205054 054 999 999 03
062530 2407N 06325W 6967 03143 0042 +094 +060 203052 052 053 004 03
062600 2406N 06325W 6967 03145 0041 +095 +063 203051 051 047 006 00
062630 2404N 06325W 6965 03148 0046 +089 +065 205050 050 049 005 00
062700 2403N 06325W 6968 03146 0049 +090 +067 207050 050 051 004 00
062730 2401N 06325W 6969 03144 0052 +085 +068 208049 049 051 005 00
062800 2400N 06325W 6970 03140 0051 +088 +069 209048 049 051 005 00
062830 2359N 06325W 6964 03153 0047 +092 +069 211048 048 050 005 00
062900 2357N 06325W 6967 03147 0050 +089 +070 211047 048 050 005 03
062930 2356N 06326W 6957 03162 0041 +095 +070 208047 047 049 006 00
063000 2354N 06326W 6967 03147 0038 +098 +071 209048 048 050 005 03
063030 2352N 06326W 6967 03151 0037 +101 +073 210048 048 049 005 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210641
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 31 20090821
063100 2351N 06326W 6967 03152 0038 +100 +076 213048 048 048 005 03
063130 2349N 06326W 6965 03155 0038 +100 +078 216047 048 048 004 03
063200 2347N 06326W 6968 03153 0038 +103 +080 215049 050 047 005 03
063230 2346N 06326W 6971 03148 0046 +097 +081 214047 048 047 004 00
063300 2344N 06326W 6965 03157 0052 +092 +083 214046 047 049 004 00
063330 2342N 06326W 6965 03158 0055 +090 +083 215046 046 048 004 03
063400 2341N 06327W 6970 03150 0062 +087 +083 216046 047 047 004 03
063430 2339N 06327W 6965 03160 0064 +086 +082 217046 047 048 004 03
063500 2337N 06327W 6965 03161 0062 +089 +081 216044 045 047 004 03
063530 2335N 06327W 6967 03159 0056 +094 +081 218045 046 999 999 03
063600 2334N 06327W 6969 03157 0050 +100 +079 218045 045 045 004 03
063630 2332N 06327W 6967 03158 0053 +095 +079 218043 044 045 004 03
063700 2330N 06327W 6968 03161 0053 +096 +080 220044 044 046 003 03
063730 2329N 06327W 6967 03161 0056 +095 +080 222044 044 999 999 03
063800 2327N 06327W 6966 03163 0057 +095 +081 223043 043 045 003 03
063830 2325N 06328W 6969 03159 0063 +095 +081 224043 043 045 004 03
063900 2323N 06328W 6965 03169 0068 +090 +081 224042 042 999 999 03
063930 2322N 06328W 6970 03162 0074 +086 +080 222041 041 045 003 03
064000 2320N 06328W 6899 03245 0075 +077 +077 221041 041 043 002 00
064030 2318N 06328W 6737 03444 0063 +077 +077 214045 046 041 000 00

[TheEuropean]

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
URNT12 KNHC 210606
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 21/05:48:20Z
B. 25 deg 28 min N
064 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2674 m
D. 83 kt
E. 303 deg 13 nm
F. 032 deg 83 kt
G. 303 deg 15 nm
H. 951 mb
I. 12 C / 3045 m
J. 17 C / 3050 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF300 0703A BILL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 03:48:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 05:53:10Z


Sorry, no more time, please someone else take over.

[Meso]

The models are grouping together in more agreement, the latest BAM models have come back from a right bias to more inline with the other models. I'd expect a bit of a left shift in the next NHC advisory

[I-wall]

Wow, this thing has really deteriorated. The eye is cloud filled and cloud tops are still warming. Very interesting given the NHC's forecast for more strengthening.

[lonelymike]

Bill still appears to be shrinking and now the eye is ragged.

EWC cycle I would guess

[TheEuropean]

from this nite:

000
URNT15 KNHC 210641
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 31 20090821
063100 2351N 06326W 6967 03152 0038 +100 +076 213048 048 048 005 03
063130 2349N 06326W 6965 03155 0038 +100 +078 216047 048 048 004 03
063200 2347N 06326W 6968 03153 0038 +103 +080 215049 050 047 005 03
063230 2346N 06326W 6971 03148 0046 +097 +081 214047 048 047 004 00
063300 2344N 06326W 6965 03157 0052 +092 +083 214046 047 049 004 00
063330 2342N 06326W 6965 03158 0055 +090 +083 215046 046 048 004 03
063400 2341N 06327W 6970 03150 0062 +087 +083 216046 047 047 004 03
063430 2339N 06327W 6965 03160 0064 +086 +082 217046 047 048 004 03
063500 2337N 06327W 6965 03161 0062 +089 +081 216044 045 047 004 03
063530 2335N 06327W 6967 03159 0056 +094 +081 218045 046 999 999 03
063600 2334N 06327W 6969 03157 0050 +100 +079 218045 045 045 004 03
063630 2332N 06327W 6967 03158 0053 +095 +079 218043 044 045 004 03
063700 2330N 06327W 6968 03161 0053 +096 +080 220044 044 046 003 03
063730 2329N 06327W 6967 03161 0056 +095 +080 222044 044 999 999 03
063800 2327N 06327W 6966 03163 0057 +095 +081 223043 043 045 003 03
063830 2325N 06328W 6969 03159 0063 +095 +081 224043 043 045 004 03
063900 2323N 06328W 6965 03169 0068 +090 +081 224042 042 999 999 03
063930 2322N 06328W 6970 03162 0074 +086 +080 222041 041 045 003 03
064000 2320N 06328W 6899 03245 0075 +077 +077 221041 041 043 002 00
064030 2318N 06328W 6737 03444 0063 +077 +077 214045 046 041 000 00

000
URNT15 KNHC 210650
AF300 0703A BILL HDOB 32 20090821
064100 2316N 06328W 6481 03773 0059 +065 +065 209046 047 041 000 00
064130 2314N 06328W 6287 04023 0056 +052 +052 210047 047 041 001 01
064200 2312N 06328W 6109 04261 9990 +037 +999 215045 046 040 000 01
064230 2310N 06329W 5940 04457 9990 +019 +999 220043 044 040 000 01
064300 2308N 06329W 5754 04723 9990 -003 +999 223042 043 038 001 01
064330 2306N 06329W 5591 04964 9990 -013 +999 228042 044 039 000 01
064400 2304N 06329W 5444 05181 0242 -011 +999 231042 043 039 000 01
064430 2302N 06329W 5287 05415 0258 -018 +999 228039 040 038 001 01
064500 2300N 06329W 5140 05642 0275 -026 +999 227038 038 037 001 01
064530 2258N 06329W 4999 05865 0290 -041 +999 221037 038 037 000 01
064600 2256N 06329W 4859 06088 0306 -056 +999 220037 037 037 000 01
064630 2254N 06330W 4735 06292 0321 -073 +999 224036 036 037 000 01
064700 2252N 06330W 4620 06483 0333 -086 +999 232034 035 038 000 01
064730 2250N 06330W 4517 06655 0342 -098 +999 235033 033 038 000 01
064800 2248N 06330W 4407 06850 0357 -109 +999 231032 032 039 000 05
064830 2246N 06330W 4307 07024 0370 -125 +999 233031 031 039 000 05
064900 2244N 06330W 4212 07196 0380 -134 +999 240029 030 039 000 01
064930 2242N 06330W 4127 07352 0391 -136 +999 241027 028 039 000 01
065000 2240N 06331W 4042 07515 0403 -149 +999 238028 029 038 000 05
065030 2238N 06331W 3960 07664 0413 -164 +999 242027 028 038 000 01

ascending and mission over