ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[wxmann_91]

the NHC track is nearly identical to the HWRF

Most guidance is well west of their track

I've notice that also. Why are they sticking so stubbornly to a track based mainly upon that one model, anyone know?

Its not the HWRF they're following, its the Euro, which has performed best with Bill so far.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

the NHC track is nearly identical to the HWRF

Most guidance is well west of their track

I've notice that also. Why are they sticking so stubbornly to a track based mainly upon that one model, anyone know?

Its not the HWRF they're following, its the Euro, which has performed best with Bill so far.

Thanks for clearing that up.

[cycloneye]

Cantore is in Bermuda.

Why? He won't be able to get up to Nova Scotia in time. I guess he's going to give the glory of being blown over by hurricane strength wind gusts in Yarmouth/Cape Cod/Halifax to one of the others like Stephanie Abrams or Mike Seidel.

In a slow season, you can be sure TWC will devote every resource imaginable to this one. Kind of like the NHC is doing with all the research missions actually. Everyone knows this might end up being the only chance to capture a major all season.

Yeah,all resources scattered,Cantore,Bermuda,Sidel /Abrahams,Cape Cod.

Cantore will start to report tonight.

[wxman57]

the NHC track is nearly identical to the HWRF

Most guidance is well west of their track

That's a ton of faith in the HWRF...can't wait for the 0z models with recon input tonight...

HWRF has been the far right model on every storm this season. It turned Bill out to sea to the north almost immediately after it formed. That said, HWRF misses Newfoundland (mostly). NHC is left of HWRF but right of the consensus model (TVCN) and GFDL.

[yzerfan]

Forget the TWC crew, the real question is whether Fox News is sending Geraldo Rivera into the heart of the storm to 'report',

[KWT]

It'll be interesting to see where this one ends up Wxman57, I think the HWRF will be too far east and a track more like the GFDL seems more reasonable IMO, esp given thats not far off from the consensus, I suspect the NHC may shift a touch west next advisory if the next cycle show similar results.

[Derek Ortt]

again, the euro has had 200NM errors at 48 hours. However, some here refuse to face this FACT, and instead go with unquantitative soundbites or past performance

CMC also struggled with those problems. For all its long-term problems, GFS/GFDL has had the short term good for this storm, and we are now entering the short term

[craptacular]

The NOAA plane is heading north and sending data:
000
URNT15 KWBC 202218
NOAA3 WX03A BILL6 HDOB 03 20090820
220830 1623N 06012W 5491 05152 0274 -020 -154 177020 020 999 999 03
220900 1625N 06013W 5491 05152 0275 -022 -137 177019 019 999 999 03
220930 1628N 06013W 5492 05152 0275 -020 -157 176019 020 999 999 03
221000 1630N 06014W 5492 05152 0275 -021 -147 176019 020 999 999 03
221030 1633N 06015W 5491 05152 0275 -022 -148 176018 018 999 999 03
221100 1635N 06015W 5492 05151 0275 -022 -166 175019 020 999 999 03
221130 1637N 06016W 5492 05151 0275 -022 -151 178020 020 999 999 03
221200 1640N 06017W 5493 05149 0274 -018 -206 176019 019 999 999 03
221230 1642N 06017W 5492 05150 0274 -017 -254 176019 020 999 999 03
221300 1645N 06018W 5493 05149 0274 -018 -249 176019 019 999 999 03
221330 1647N 06019W 5494 05147 0274 -018 -243 177019 019 999 999 03
221400 1650N 06019W 5494 05148 0274 -020 -243 177018 018 999 999 03
221430 1652N 06020W 5493 05148 0274 -020 -249 179018 018 999 999 03
221500 1654N 06021W 5494 05147 0274 -019 -244 177019 019 999 999 03
221530 1657N 06022W 5494 05148 0274 -016 -249 177019 019 999 999 03
221600 1659N 06022W 5494 05148 0275 -015 -247 181018 019 999 999 03
221630 1702N 06023W 5494 05148 0275 -015 -245 180019 019 999 999 03
221700 1704N 06024W 5495 05147 0275 -016 -247 180019 019 999 999 03
221730 1707N 06024W 5495 05148 0276 -015 -248 178018 018 999 999 03
221800 1709N 06025W 5495 05148 0276 -012 -264 174017 017 999 999 03

[tolakram]

I've captured some of the rapid scan loop and put a video (HD available) on youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHmLfogM2NY

[Derek Ortt]

new GFS is slightly faster, but has same track

[taurus10]

most of SE new england mets are not worried about bill they say the most that we see is high surf and severe riptides they said the chances of bill are decreasing about 5% each 6hours they said that most comp models are useless and are used just to give NHC starting point to project the exact track and say NHC is correct 90% of the time on there forecast local mets have indicated the the recent comp model west motion is over and should start seeing the models shifting east later tonight or friday........i will keep watching but if something strange happens to the forcast in 12 hours it does not give SE new england time to prepare as most indications are if it were to hit it would be sat night.

[brunota2003]

THE NOAA AND THE 53RD AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE 0000
UTC MODEL RUN.

[brunota2003]

For these missions, from 5 pm EDT discussion:

THE NOAA AND THE 53RD AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE 0000
UTC MODEL RUN.

[wxman57]

again, the euro has had 200NM errors at 48 hours. However, some here refuse to face this FACT, and instead go with unquantitative soundbites or past performance

CMC also struggled with those problems. For all its long-term problems, GFS/GFDL has had the short term good for this storm, and we are now entering the short term

Derek,

I know you're not a fan of the Euro. However, it was the best-performing model of 2008, beating the TVCN consensus and even the FSSE in all times, from 12 through 120hrs. Yes, there were a couple ECMWF runs in which the EC appeared to have problems at the start, but it has consistently outperformed other dynamic models with Bill's track. I certainly took note of it when I posted a model comparison in my blog on August 14th. The EC's 9-day forecast was dead on while the GFS had Bill moving across the Caribbean and hitting New Orleans. I"ve certainly been quite impressed with the ECMWF's performance this year, acknowledging that it was a bit slow and even too far right on a few runs for Bill.

[cpdaman]

looks like a bit more TRUE NW motion last few images (maybe even 320 ish) ....IMO lets see if this wiggles back WNW next

ok well i posted this at 330 and was told not to watch each frame......

Wxman have you plotted the latest 3 and 6 hour positions

i think it is clear the angle has turned a good 10 to 15 degrees more NW since 2pm or so

[carolina_73]

Bill is looking good.

[wxman57]

As there has been some question about the EC's ability to handle storms n the short term, I went back to the 00Z/19th EC run and plotted the 48hr forecast (below). The crosshair represents Bill's position just an hour before that verification point. I don't think you could argue that the EC had a problem with its short term forecast with that kind of accuracy.



In fairness, the GFS also did an amazing job at 48hrs:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What do you guys make of the below discussion?


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 23 2009 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2009

MULTI-DAY MEANS BASED ON LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN GUIDANCE MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY IN DEPICTING A STABLE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A FAIRLY DEEP NERN PAC TROF... CNTRL
NOAM RIDGE... AND EXTREME ERN NOAM TROF. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FLOW FAVORS A CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE FCST.

OVER THE WEST... THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING WITH A SHRTWV
THAT SHOULD REACH THE PAC NW/WRN CANADA BY DAY 5 TUE. HOWEVER THE
GFS BRINGS LOWER HGTS INTO THE WEST COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS BY DAY 7 THU. AHEAD OF THIS DAYS 5-7
EVOLUTION THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A DAY 3 SUN PAC
NW/WRN CANADA SHRTWV THAT SHOULD TRAVEL ACROSS SRN CANADA/EXTREME
NRN CONUS AND HELP TO RELOAD THE ERN NOAM MEAN TROF... THOUGH AT A
LATITUDE FARTHER NWD THAN THE ERN TROF EXISTING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF THE BEST OPERATIONAL CLUSTER CAPTURES THE
ASSOC LOW PRESSURE WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS LAGGING IN
DEFINITION... ESPECIALLY THE 00Z GEFS MEAN.

OVER THE EAST... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT TWO EXTREMES IN REGARD
TO THE CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY AS OF EARLY DAY 3 SUN. THE ECMWF
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SWD WITH ITS UPPER LOW AT THAT TIME BUT A
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO EJECT ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT EXPECT A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF A FRONTAL WAVE FROM OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST VERSUS THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. BY
DAY 7 THU THE GFS ALSO BECOMES A LITTLE DEEPER WITH PORTIONS OF
THE ERN CANADA/NERN CONUS TROF THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE.
FARTHER S AND E... REMAINING INITIAL ERN TROF ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND BE DIRECTED TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF REGION IN RESPONSE TO EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST. OVER THE WRN ATLC EXPECT HURCN BILL TO BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY DAY 3 SUN... WITH MANUAL FCST BASED ON
THE 06Z TPC ADVISORY.

DAYS 3-5 SUN-TUE START WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN TO CAPTURE THE MOST AGREEABLE ASPECTS OF THAT
PORTION OF THE FCST AND DOWNPLAY LOWER CONFIDENCE DETAILS OF ANY
INDIVIDUAL RUN. THEN DAYS 6-7 WED-THU USE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE
ECWMF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
AT THAT TIME FRAME... AS THE GEFS MEAN LACKS DEFINITION WITH THE
SYSTEM CROSSING SRN CANADA.

12Z GUIDANCE RUNS CONTINUE REASONABLE CONTINUITY. NO CHANGES TO
AFTN FINALS.

TROPICS..HURCN BILL MOVES NWD GETTING AS FAR WEST 68W-69W WITH
VERY HEAVY SWELL AND SURF IMPACTING THE EAST COAST WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AND INTO MARITIME CANADA DAYS
3 AND 4. CHI VELOCITY ANOMALY INDICATES THAT THE ATLANTIC BECOME
RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
CONSENSUS OF A WAVE MOVING THE BAHAMAS REGION LATE PERIOD BUT THE
EPAC WILL BE UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODELS GENERATE
AT LEAST 3 SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME.

A MONSOONAL RAINFALL PATTERN REMAINS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Derek Ortt]

This is NOT from the synoptic surveillance, so someone should post them (I am preparing another podcast for PNJ right now, so don't look to myself

here is where the plane is

URNT15 KWBC 202258
NOAA3 WX03A BILL6 HDOB 07 20090820
224830 1937N 06109W 5496 05147 0276 -009 -173 185022 022 999 999 03
224900 1940N 06110W 5497 05145 0275 -010 -097 180023 023 999 999 03
224930 1942N 06111W 5496 05146 0275 -012 -079 176024 025 999 999 03
225000 1944N 06112W 5497 05144 0275 -015 -070 176025 026 999 999 03
225030 1947N 06113W 5497 05145 0275 -017 -049 178025 026 999 999 03
225100 1949N 06113W 5497 05144 0274 -017 -042 183025 025 999 999 03
225130 1952N 06114W 5497 05142 0274 -015 -048 182025 025 999 999 03
225200 1954N 06115W 5497 05144 0274 -017 -046 184024 025 004 000 00
225230 1957N 06116W 5496 05145 0274 -019 -042 193021 021 005 000 00
225300 1959N 06117W 5498 05141 0273 -020 -033 199021 021 007 000 00
225330 2002N 06117W 5498 05140 0272 -019 -035 202022 023 007 000 00
225400 2004N 06118W 5498 05140 0271 -022 -033 197022 023 008 000 00
225430 2006N 06119W 5499 05137 0271 -023 -034 195022 022 010 000 00
225500 2009N 06120W 5498 05139 0271 -021 -036 199021 022 014 000 03
225530 2011N 06120W 5499 05136 0270 -018 -040 195023 024 999 999 03
225600 2014N 06121W 5499 05136 0270 -019 -046 197023 024 999 999 03
225630 2016N 06122W 5500 05135 0270 -019 -061 199023 023 017 000 00
225700 2018N 06122W 5500 05135 0269 -019 -047 202023 024 020 000 03
225730 2021N 06123W 5499 05135 0269 -014 -069 205022 022 021 000 00
225800 2023N 06124W 5501 05133 0092 -012 -083 209022 023 020 000 00

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 202308
NOAA3 WX03A BILL6 HDOB 08 20090820
225830 2026N 06124W 5499 05135 0269 -010 -091 211023 023 020 000 00
225900 2028N 06124W 5501 05133 0094 -013 -077 205023 023 018 000 00
225930 2030N 06125W 5500 05133 0097 -015 -069 202024 025 018 000 03
230000 2033N 06125W 5500 05134 0097 -014 -073 204024 024 018 000 00
230030 2035N 06126W 5501 05133 0092 -013 -059 209025 026 017 000 00
230100 2037N 06127W 5501 05133 0092 -013 -053 217025 026 010 000 00
230130 2040N 06127W 5502 05131 0092 -011 -086 217026 026 010 000 03
230200 2042N 06128W 5501 05132 0090 -011 -090 213026 026 009 000 00
230230 2044N 06129W 5502 05131 0082 -009 -056 216030 031 014 000 00
230300 2047N 06129W 5501 05133 0082 -005 -116 218029 030 024 001 00
230330 2049N 06130W 5502 05130 0087 -007 -144 216030 030 023 000 03
230400 2052N 06130W 5503 05128 0085 -007 -135 214030 030 014 000 00
230430 2054N 06131W 5503 05128 0095 -014 -096 211029 030 017 000 03
230500 2056N 06132W 5504 05126 0089 -010 -115 210031 032 012 000 00
230530 2058N 06132W 5502 05128 0079 -006 -108 212032 033 015 000 03
230600 2101N 06133W 5503 05125 0074 -003 -118 213033 033 021 000 03
230630 2103N 06134W 5503 05126 0074 -004 -119 213032 033 021 000 03
230700 2105N 06135W 5504 05124 0073 -003 -117 213033 033 021 000 03
230730 2108N 06136W 5503 05126 0066 +000 -097 212034 035 022 000 03
230800 2110N 06136W 5504 05125 0065 -001 -084 213035 035 022 000 03