Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend??? AGAIN???

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Saw a few posts yesterday in the ex-ana thread about models developing a system in the northern gulf in 5-7 days. Well our morning nws afd also mentions possible cut-off low or trough developing as well. Remember they talked about gulf development last week and we had claudette. So lets see what happens. Here is an exerpt from the discussion...

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
B/T THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH A MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
WHILE THIS OCCURS A PIECE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CUT OFF OVER THE
NRN GULF AND THIS COULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AND IF THERE
IS A WEAKNESS/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NRN GULF RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE. IN ADDITION TO THAT LL TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. /CAB/

[srainhoutx]

Actually there are several WFO's that mention the feature this morning. Lake Charles as well as Houston/Galveston talk about rain chance increasing mid to late week as the cut off low moves westbound and a strong return flow of tropical moisture after our "cool front" from the GOM.

[StormClouds63]

Is the front expected to push all the way into the Gulf waters? If so, the tail end will have to be watched for any development. I think Alicia (1983) formed from similar type of scenario.

I suspect development in the next 10-14 days (if any) would be something in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, or GOM. The Atlantic train appears to have dried up at least temporarily.

Rode out Danny (1985) here in Louisiana ... very beneficial rains with little damage. Juan, later that year, caused many more problems, including substantial coastal erosion.

[srainhoutx]

Is the front expected to push all the way into the Gulf waters? If so, the tail end will have to be watched for any development. I think Alicia (1983) formed from similar type of scenario.

I suspect development in the next 10-14 days (if any) would be something in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, or GOM. The Atlantic train appears to have dried up at least temporarily.

Rode out Danny (1985) here in Louisiana ... very beneficial rains with little damage. Juan, later that year, caused many more problems, including substantial coastal erosion.

Alicia did form along an old boundry/trough. The kick was a MCV that moved S from MS/AL into the GOM. I always tend to watch carefully this type of setup as they have been known to spin up "home grown" systems.

[KWT]

Worth watching these features, I'm watching this as well as the front that is down the western part of the Atlantic.

[Ptarmigan]

Definetely should keep an eye on the Gulf after that front passes.

[KatDaddy]

Austin/San Antonio:

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


Corpus Christi:

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
(WHICH WILL PINCH OFF FROM A SHEAR AXIS LEFT BEHIND IN THE BASE OF
THE EAST COAST TROUGH) RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE WEST GULF ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE COASTAL BEND JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

[KWT]

Its something to watch though I'm personally watching the West Atlantic closer for the next development as a tropical wave moves towards a stalled frontal boundary.

[srainhoutx]

HPC mentions this feature in early prelim disco...snipet...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
705 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

VALID 12Z MON AUG 24 2009 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2009



FARTHER S AND E... REMAINING INITIAL ERN TROF ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND BE DIRECTED TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF REGION IN RESPONSE TO EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST. OVER THE WRN ATLC EXPECT HURCN BILL TO BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY DAY 3 SUN... WITH MANUAL FCST BASED ON
THE 06Z TPC ADVISORY.

[Sanibel]

Convection was over the Gulf this morning with none over land.

The Gulf is favorable for development.

[KatDaddy]

Corpus Christi Afternoon AFD excerpt:

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD GFS WANTS TO RETROGRADE A ROGUE CUTOFF
LOW WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS VERIFIES...LATE NEXT
WEEK COULD SEE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL PAINT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES AND WAIT FOR MODEL
CONTINUITY TO BE ANY MORE ADVENTUROUS.

[Nederlander]

Brownsville/Corpus area sure could use it...

[Pearl River]

From afternoon NOLA AFD:

AS WITH ANY FRONTAL
ADVANCES INTO THE WARM GULF WATERS NEAR THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE
SEASON...THE GULF WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS CAN
BE A SLOW PROCESS AND PROBABLY NOT A CONCERN UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW A PIECE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BREAKING OFF THE MEAN FLOW AND SETTLING INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF. A TOP-DOWN DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR BUT
SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO REMAIN COGNIZANT FOR NEXT WEEK.

[MGC]

Anytime a front makes it to the GOM and stalls in August you have to watch for potential development. Lets hope nothing forms......MGC

[bayoubebe]

Anything new to report on this?

[jinftl]

As of now, the Gulf is one of the few areas that models are not showing possible development in the next week...of course, things change so this time of year, a watchful eye is always in order.

Anything new to report on this?

[lrak]

The BOC looks interesting this morning. I sure wish a cold front would suck all that moisture up over deep S. TX.

[Big O]

A met on another weather forum has stated that the GOM has to be monitored for development of a low pressure system mid to late next week. The reason being that a big cool high over the Ohio Valley and Northeast should assist in generating a tropical low in the GOM via a trough split.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Big O"]A met on another weather forum has stated that the GOM has to be monitored for development of a low pressure system mid to late next week. The reason being that a big cool high over the Ohio Valley and Northeast should assist in generating a tropical low in the GOM via a trough split.[/quote]


I wonder if this snippet from the Tallahasse NWS is referencing the same idea:

THE EURO SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THIS SAME TIME (next Tues / Wed) AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE BOUNDARY.

[StormClouds63]

After Rita, Humberto, Edouard, Gustav, and Ike, we need a break. Doesn't appear any long trackers (CV storms) would make it this far west before re-curve (if the current pattern persists). Thus, we probably have to look closer to home for any possible development. Current conditions are not favorable for any development of this type. However, stay focused and don't let your guard down ... still 5-6 weeks to go.