ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cpdaman]

that could be a west of Halifax landfall. Remember, the actual track will curve. That looks like SW NS

Yeah, the NHC only forecasts 24hr points connected with straight lines. Besides, it's 4 days from landfall there. Forecasts can be off by a mile or two that far out.

funny ......Wxman 57 do you think the steering flow in the short term will keep bill at 305-310 or more like 320 over nite.

i swear i heard lyons on TWC says NW even NNW in response to the ULL

[RattleMan]

UZNT13 KWBC 200258
XXAA 69227 99194 70570 04297 99968 24800 ///// 00790 ///// /////
92397 22200 18584 85132 19600 20581 70788 110// 19585 88999 77999
31313 09608 82148
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 24
62626 REL 1937N05703W 214822 SPG 1944N05699W 215203 WL150 18074 0
90 DLM WND 19581 966696 MBL WND 18580 LST WND 015=

XXBB 69228 99194 70570 04297 00968 24800 11963 24400 22818 18000
33730 13803 44695 104//
21212 00968 ///// 11966 17568 22965 18074 33950 18576 44941 18588
55929 18583 66906 19589 77782 20576 88695 20086
31313 09608 82148
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 24
62626 REL 1937N05703W 214822 SPG 1944N05699W 215203 WL150 18074 0
90 DLM WND 19581 966696 MBL WND 18580 LST WND 015=

[Derek Ortt]

where ever Bill makes landfall likely will have can winds for less than 3 hours, despite it going to be very large. This likely will be moving about 40 mph at landfall

[massweathernet]

that could be a west of Halifax landfall. Remember, the actual track will curve. That looks like SW NS

how much of a threat do you think it will be to cape cod, if any???

think the models will come back east tonight and tomorrow???




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

THE CAPE?! Yikes, that'd be a little too close for comfort here in Boston haha.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200305
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 09 20090820
025600 2039N 06128W 4324 06969 0342 -102 -156 016036 039 999 999 03
025630 2041N 06128W 4555 06573 0317 -080 -130 018042 043 999 999 03
025700 2043N 06127W 4798 06175 0297 -058 -104 020043 044 999 999 03
025730 2045N 06126W 5020 05816 0272 -038 -081 016042 043 999 999 03
025800 2047N 06125W 5248 05460 0248 -026 -050 017041 042 999 999 03
025830 2049N 06124W 5484 05110 0225 -014 -027 022041 041 999 999 03
025900 2051N 06124W 5727 04763 0043 +001 -008 026041 041 999 999 03
025930 2053N 06123W 5972 04404 0056 +015 +004 034040 040 999 999 03
030000 2055N 06122W 6234 04090 0076 +038 +013 040039 039 999 999 03
030030 2057N 06121W 6501 03745 0080 +056 +024 037040 041 999 999 03
030100 2058N 06121W 6780 03398 0082 +074 +045 032040 042 999 999 03
030130 2100N 06120W 6957 03183 0078 +087 +062 034042 043 032 002 03
030200 2101N 06119W 6969 03164 0074 +089 +060 037041 042 034 002 00
030230 2103N 06117W 6968 03165 0075 +087 +062 040043 043 035 001 00
030300 2104N 06116W 6968 03167 0074 +087 +068 041044 045 035 000 00
030330 2105N 06115W 6967 03172 0077 +084 +074 043045 046 035 001 00
030400 2106N 06114W 6967 03166 0072 +087 +066 042046 046 036 000 03
030430 2107N 06113W 6961 03171 0070 +086 +068 042049 050 035 002 00
030500 2108N 06111W 6966 03167 0074 +086 +064 041047 048 035 002 03
030530 2110N 06110W 6967 03164 0070 +090 +063 039046 047 035 001 00
$$
;

Now at operational altitude.

[vacanechaser]

that could be a west of Halifax landfall. Remember, the actual track will curve. That looks like SW NS

how much of a threat do you think it will be to cape cod, if any???

think the models will come back east tonight and tomorrow???




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

THE CAPE?! Yikes, that'd be a little too close for comfort here in Boston haha.

lol... i hear ya... some of the models today brushed the cape, so i was just wondering... may be headed that way if it looks like it may brush the cape... will know more tomorrow i guess...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

right now, I think there may be TS winds for the USA (CC and MA). The best bet for the cane is Nova Scotia

That said, there is more forecats uncertainty than usual and is why I hate the static cone. Hopefully in about 2 years, I have a much better product ready

[vacanechaser]

right now, I think there may be TS winds for the USA (CC and MA). The best bet for the cane is Nova Scotia

That said, there is more forecats uncertainty than usual and is why I hate the static cone. Hopefully in about 2 years, I have a much better product ready

thanx... guess it all hinges on what they show tomorrow and what the forecast is at that time on whether we, i, head north...



headed to bed



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[storms NC]

I don't know what you all see but the last 4 -5 frames Bill has been moving west not north west. But we know he will jump back to the north.

[cpdaman]

I don't know what you all see but the last 4 -5 frames Bill has been moving west not north west. But we know he will jump back to the north.

WNW has been the recent movement

lyons said "more northward turn tonite in response to the ULL" so as the nite goes on it may do just that or perhaps lyons has wiped out on his surfboard one too many times

[brunota2003]

You know...I just cant seem to get away from the tropical cyclones...last year one hit NC prior to me leaving for Basic, then during Basic, Gustav passed through Oklahoma (Ft Sill, OK...we had rifle qual's the day he passed through, and because of him, I finally managed to qualify!) Now here I am at Fort Drum, and Bill will be passing off to my east (how close to the east is yet to be determined).

[CrazyC83]

Water temperatures off of Nova Scotia are far warmer than normal, up near 70 degrees. That will surely slow weakening. If it is a Cat 3 when it leaves the Gulf Stream, it should still be a Cat 2 at landfall.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200315
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 10 20090820
030600 2111N 06109W 6967 03165 0066 +094 +055 038049 051 035 001 00
030630 2112N 06108W 6966 03164 0061 +097 +048 035050 051 034 002 00
030700 2113N 06107W 6968 03163 0062 +092 +058 043049 050 034 002 00
030730 2114N 06106W 6960 03169 0067 +087 +064 050049 049 033 001 00
030800 2116N 06104W 6969 03161 0070 +085 +067 052049 050 033 001 00
030830 2117N 06103W 6967 03160 0066 +089 +062 050050 050 034 000 00
030900 2118N 06101W 6967 03164 0069 +087 +065 048050 050 034 000 03
030930 2120N 06100W 6965 03166 0071 +085 +066 047047 047 034 000 03
031000 2121N 06059W 6966 03164 0073 +081 +069 048044 045 034 001 03
031030 2122N 06057W 6970 03156 0071 +085 +066 049044 044 036 001 03
031100 2124N 06056W 6965 03163 0073 +082 +061 050043 044 038 002 00
031130 2125N 06055W 6967 03160 0072 +084 +054 049044 045 038 000 00
031200 2126N 06053W 6967 03161 0070 +085 +061 048045 046 038 000 03
031230 2128N 06052W 6970 03158 0063 +091 +061 046048 049 039 001 03
031300 2129N 06051W 6978 03151 0060 +094 +064 044049 050 039 001 00
031330 2130N 06050W 6967 03159 0060 +093 +061 043051 051 039 002 03
031400 2131N 06049W 6967 03161 0060 +091 +061 043051 051 041 000 00
031430 2132N 06048W 6967 03161 0056 +095 +060 044049 049 041 001 00
031500 2133N 06047W 6967 03156 0056 +095 +069 048049 050 041 002 03
031530 2134N 06046W 6967 03159 0056 +095 +073 048049 052 041 003 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

The latest from Buoy 41044 as of 1050 EDT:
Sustained winds of 56.3 knots
Gusting to 69.9 knots
Pressure is 995 millibars and falling rapidly.

Wave height at 950 EDT was 36 feet, this update does not have a wave height on it.

[RattleMan]

UZNT13 KWBC 200309
XXAA 69237 99194 70586 04298 99993 ///// 29036 00/// ///// /////
92/// 21400 31055 85/// 18200 32561 70/// 116// 31556 88999 77999
31313 09608 82305
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 27
62626 REL 1942N05860W 230541 SPG 1937N05855W 230953 DLM WND 31554
992697=
XXBB 69238 99194 70586 04298 00993 ///// 11991 25802 22952 22600
33865 18800 44779 14806 55715 12650 66697 11437
21212 00993 29036 11991 29536 22987 29543 33949 30555 44928 31054
55911 32065 66904 32060 77841 33059 88765 31048 99697 31555
31313 09608 82305
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 27
62626 REL 1942N05860W 230541 SPG 1937N05855W 230953 DLM WND 31554
992697=


URNT12 KWBC 200309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/0201Z
B. 20 DEG 27 MIN N
58 DEG 41 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2651 M
D. 85 KT
E. 089 DEG 14 NM
F. 171 DEG 114 KT
G. 076 DEG 18 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 12 C/3078 M
J. 21 C/3059 M
K. 6 C/NA
L. OPEN S
M. E03 30 25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 29
CORRECTION TO OB 22 FOR 700 MB HEIGHT AND WIND REMARK
MAX FL WINDS 133 KTS NE QUAD 2323Z

URNT11 KWBC 200319
97779 03194 50157 59900 58100 22009 5588/ /4589
RMK NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 31 KWBC
LAST REPORT


UZNT13 KWBC 200318
XXAA 70007 99212 70583 07818 99992 24811 ///// 00569 ///// /////
92614 20805 06605 85344 17201 08112 70986 104// 09600 88999 77999
31313 09608 80016
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 30
62626 REL 2119N05827W 001657 SPG 2117N05838W 002058 WL150 06081 0
88 DLM WND 08100 991696 MBL WND 06086 LST WND 013=
XXBB 70008 99212 70583 07818 00992 24811 11983 24214 22952 22816
33899 19400 44717 10806 55696 102//
21212 00992 ///// 11991 05576 22990 05580 33987 05577 44978 06084
55968 06085 66960 06090 77950 07088 88942 07095 99932 06593 11921
06610 22912 07117 33892 07104 44881 07612 55696 09597
31313 09608 80016
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 30
62626 REL 2119N05827W 001657 SPG 2117N05838W 002058 WL150 06081 0
88 DLM WND 08100 991696 MBL WND 06086 LST WND 013=

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200325
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 11 20090820
031600 2135N 06045W 6968 03158 0059 +089 +088 052055 056 041 004 03
031630 2136N 06044W 6966 03158 0066 +084 +084 052056 057 040 004 03
031700 2137N 06043W 6969 03158 0060 +090 +090 050061 064 041 004 00
031730 2138N 06042W 6966 03160 0058 +090 +088 049064 064 043 002 00
031800 2139N 06041W 6967 03158 0060 +087 +085 054063 064 042 002 00
031830 2139N 06040W 6971 03149 0053 +093 +076 058061 061 042 002 03
031900 2140N 06039W 6965 03162 0053 +092 +092 057062 062 044 000 00
031930 2141N 06038W 6966 03156 0057 +087 +087 054058 059 043 002 03
032000 2142N 06037W 6970 03154 0059 +086 +086 053058 059 044 004 03
032030 2143N 06036W 6973 03153 0060 +083 +083 054064 066 044 004 05
032100 2144N 06035W 6966 03153 0051 +091 +091 060068 070 044 005 00
032130 2145N 06034W 6969 03148 0053 +089 +089 061067 069 044 006 00
032200 2146N 06033W 6967 03154 0058 +083 +083 056067 068 046 005 01
032230 2147N 06032W 6961 03161 9990 +074 +999 058065 067 046 007 01
032300 2148N 06031W 6968 03151 0063 +078 +078 062063 064 046 005 01
032330 2149N 06030W 6967 03152 0062 +082 +082 061064 065 046 005 00
032400 2150N 06029W 6967 03156 0063 +082 +082 059065 066 045 004 00
032430 2150N 06029W 6966 03154 0064 +081 +081 058062 064 046 003 03
032500 2151N 06028W 6963 03159 0074 +074 +074 050060 062 044 003 01
032530 2152N 06027W 6967 03154 0062 +081 +081 048054 055 044 004 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200335
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 12 20090820
032600 2153N 06026W 6963 03158 0054 +089 +088 050056 056 047 003 00
032630 2154N 06025W 6966 03155 0051 +089 +089 055056 056 048 002 00
032700 2155N 06024W 6967 03153 0057 +083 +083 064056 058 047 005 01
032730 2156N 06023W 6968 03146 0057 +080 +080 073057 058 047 012 05
032800 2157N 06022W 6970 03144 9990 +068 +999 074062 066 046 013 01
032830 2158N 06021W 6963 03152 0067 +073 +073 077072 075 045 010 01
032900 2159N 06020W 6967 03146 0056 +081 +081 074074 076 044 010 00
032930 2200N 06019W 6962 03155 9990 +075 +999 074069 072 041 010 01
033000 2201N 06018W 6966 03152 9990 +076 +999 075067 070 045 014 05
033030 2202N 06017W 6983 03134 9990 +067 +999 074069 071 050 022 05
033100 2203N 06016W 6947 03169 9990 +068 +999 078065 066 047 018 01
033130 2203N 06015W 6966 03152 0055 +078 +078 078070 071 046 009 01
033200 2204N 06014W 6970 03153 0053 +091 +088 075073 073 046 006 03
033230 2204N 06013W 6964 03151 0050 +091 +082 072072 072 044 007 03
033300 2203N 06012W 6966 03152 0052 +088 +075 071071 073 045 006 00
033330 2202N 06011W 6971 03143 0052 +085 +078 066069 070 043 003 00
033400 2201N 06010W 6969 03140 0057 +080 +080 065069 070 042 003 00
033430 2200N 06008W 6967 03147 0058 +076 +076 069068 070 042 006 00
033500 2159N 06007W 6961 03145 0048 +082 +082 069069 070 044 007 00
033530 2158N 06006W 6970 03134 0042 +085 +085 069070 070 045 007 00
$$
;

[lonelymike]

If Bill does hit Nova Scotia aren't the buildings there constructed to stand up to this kind of storm pretty well or maybe I'm thinking of Bermuda?

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

If Bill does hit Nova Scotia aren't the buildings there constructed to stand up to this kind of storm pretty well or maybe I'm thinking of Bermuda?

Your thinking of Bermuda. This far North we hardly ever get hit. I don't know about Nova Scotia But here in Maine we aren't prepared at all for a strong Tropical Storm let alone a Hurricane!