ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[storms NC]

I like this part. Makes you feel really good if you live on the EC

[b]THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

[/b]

[terrapintransit]

Wow Tolakram..That's an interesting perspective I must say!

Looks like he could almost glide ride up the Chesapeake Bay

[CrazyC83]

Wow Tolakram..That's an interesting perspective I must say!

Looks like he could almost glide ride up the Chesapeake Bay

It would be a Hazel scenario that would be the worst for you...

[drezee]

Buoy 41004 is in serious jeopardy...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

[OuterBanker]

That seem a bit strange. 19 ft seas with only 40 kt winds?

[massweathernet]

Anyone else seeing a jog to the west, away from the NHC track?

[DESTRUCTION5]

That seem a bit strange. 19 ft seas with only 40 kt winds?

19 Ft Seas are nothing in the open Atlantic...Especially with a Cat 4 in the vicinity.

[OuterBanker]

Btw, you could have set your watch and your gps by the 19/21z tpc position. Good work.

[StormClouds63]

Probably has reached peak intensity ... but still an amazing sight, especially its size. Westward model trend troubling.

Curious if anyone might know the highest north latitude on record for a Cat5 system (Atlantic basin) and what storm it was?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Anyone else seeing a jog to the west, away from the NHC track?

Nope looks like its right on track. but at this point thats not saying to much since just about half an hour ago everything was updated. Right now the NHCs forecast would have to be very messed up in order to see Bill tracking away from their forecast already.

[OuterBanker]

That was my point. I just wonder if those readings could be a precursor of east coast readings later.

[storms NC]

Bill seem to be slowing down a little.

[greels]

Hurricane Bill is now the "news" here on WCVB Channel 5 in Boston.......it states it "might brush the Cape" and bears watching......

[Ad Novoxium]

Probably has reached peak intensity ... but still an amazing sight, especially its size. Westward model trend troubling.

Curious if anyone might know the highest north latitude on record for a Cat5 system (Atlantic basin) and what storm it was?

According to the Best Track, Dog (50) reached 29.3N and holds the record for northmost Cat 5 to NOT be over land:

34985 08/30/1950 M=19 4 SNBR= 775 DOG XING=0
34990 08/30* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*152 553 60 0*
34995 08/31*157 565 65 0*159 576 70 0*160 587 75 0*162 596 80 0*
35000 09/01*164 603 85 0*169 611 90 0*175 618 95 0*179 623 105 0*
35005 09/02*184 628 110 0*191 636 110 0*198 643 115 0*203 647 115 0*
35010 09/03*207 650 120 0*210 652 125 0*213 655 125 0*216 658 125 0*
35015 09/04*219 661 130 0*222 664 130 0*226 668 135 0*229 672 135 0*
35020 09/05*234 677 140 0*241 681 140 0*248 684 145 0*255 685 145 0*
35025 09/06*262 685 155 0*267 684 160 0*272 683 160 0*279 681 160 0*
35030 09/07*286 679 150 0*293 677 140 0*300 675 130 0*304 674 125 0*
35035 09/08*307 673 115 0*309 674 105 0*312 677 95 0*311 682 90 0*
35040 09/09*310 686 85 0*309 690 85 0*307 695 80 0*306 699 80 0*
35045 09/10*305 702 80 0*305 706 80 0*310 710 85 0*323 717 85 0*
35050 09/11*337 721 85 0*351 723 85 0*365 721 80 0*379 717 75 0*
35055 09/12*393 706 65 0E405 688 65 0E413 669 60 0E419 651 60 0*
35060 09/13E422 634 60 0E424 618 55 0E426 603 55 0E428 583 50 0*
35065 09/14E429 559 50 0E430 532 50 0E431 500 50 0E432 462 50 0*
35070 09/15E434 421 50 0E440 379 50 0E453 336 50 0E471 285 50 0*
35075 09/16E490 232 50 0E509 186 50 0E528 147 50 0E543 116 50 0*
35080 09/17E552 91 50 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*
35085 HR

Camille, however, hit land and was just .1 degree higher in latitude than Dog post-landfall, but still at Cat 5 strength, thus meaning Camille holds the record for being at Cat 5 the most north of any hurricane. Not sure about which was the most northern when reaching it though:

44425 08/14/1969 M= 9 3 SNBR= 955 CAMILLE XING=1 SSS=5
44430 08/14* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*194 820 50 991*
44435 08/15*197 827 55 0*201 833 60 0*207 838 85 970*212 841 100 964*
44440 08/16*223 844 90 0*231 852 105 0*237 859 120 0*242 865 130 908*
44445 08/17*252 872 140 905*260 877 155 0*270 882 160 0*283 887 165 0*
44450 08/18*294 891 165 909*307 896 100 0*322 900 65 0*334 901 50 0*
44455 08/19*347 900 30 0*360 893 30 0*370 880 30 0*377 860 25 0*
44460 08/20*380 848 25 0*374 802 25 0*373 770 25 0*370 751 30 0*
44465 08/21*366 734 40 0*367 709 45 0*373 684 50 0*380 649 55 0*
44470 08/22*392 614 60 0*408 582 55 0*430 540 50 0* 0 0 0 0*
44475 HR LA5 MS5

[cycloneye]

The 00z models package will be very interesting to see if the west shift continues.

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KWBC 192135
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 07 20090819
212600 1757N 05645W 5717 04762 0012 +009 -003 226053 053 030 000 00
212630 1800N 05643W 5717 04761 0006 +012 -006 226055 055 031 000 00
212700 1802N 05642W 5717 04760 0009 +009 -001 223056 057 031 000 03
212730 1804N 05640W 5718 04758 0011 +008 +000 220057 057 032 000 00
212800 1807N 05639W 5725 04746 0011 +008 +003 218056 056 032 000 00
212830 1809N 05637W 5819 04613 0019 +011 +010 217055 055 033 001 00
212900 1811N 05636W 5971 04406 0012 +027 +017 216056 057 034 000 00
212930 1813N 05635W 6161 04149 0009 +044 +033 215056 057 035 001 00
213000 1816N 05633W 6353 03897 0011 +057 +048 212053 054 036 001 00
213030 1818N 05632W 6528 03673 0019 +064 +064 213054 055 037 000 03
213100 1820N 05630W 6716 03439 0024 +075 +074 208052 053 040 000 03
213130 1822N 05629W 6860 03262 0018 +090 +081 209053 054 999 999 03
213200 1824N 05628W 6917 03193 0016 +097 +085 208053 053 999 999 03
213230 1826N 05626W 6938 03169 0015 +098 +086 206054 054 999 999 03
213300 1828N 05625W 6950 03152 0011 +100 +087 204054 055 999 999 03
213330 1831N 05624W 6951 03152 0013 +099 +088 203056 056 999 999 03
213400 1833N 05622W 6950 03152 0012 +100 +087 200056 057 999 999 03
213430 1835N 05621W 6951 03150 0012 +099 +085 199059 059 037 001 03
213500 1838N 05621W 6952 03148 0011 +099 +086 198059 059 038 001 00
213530 1840N 05621W 6952 03147 0012 +097 +090 197060 060 040 002 00

The first three dew points are off because of limitations in my decoding program.

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
21:26:00z   17.57°N   056.45°W   571.7 hPa   4762m   1001.2 hPa   0.9°C   0.3°C   226° @ 053kt   53kt   30kt   0mm   OK
21:26:30z   18.00°N   056.43°W   571.7 hPa   4761m   1006.6 hPa   1.2°C   0.6°C   226° @ 055kt   55kt   31kt   0mm   OK
21:27:00z   18.02°N   056.42°W   571.7 hPa   4760m   1009.9 hPa   0.9°C   0.1°C   223° @ 056kt   57kt   31kt   0mm   Suspect
21:27:30z   18.04°N   056.40°W   571.8 hPa   4758m   1001.1 hPa   0.8°C   0.0°C   220° @ 057kt   57kt   32kt   0mm   OK
21:28:00z   18.07°N   056.39°W   572.5 hPa   4746m   1001.1 hPa   0.8°C   0.3°C   218° @ 056kt   56kt   32kt   0mm   OK
21:28:30z   18.09°N   056.37°W   581.9 hPa   4613m   1001.9 hPa   1.1°C   1.0°C   217° @ 055kt   55kt   33kt   1mm   OK
21:29:00z   18.11°N   056.36°W   597.1 hPa   4406m   1001.2 hPa   2.7°C   1.7°C   216° @ 056kt   57kt   34kt   0mm   OK
21:29:30z   18.13°N   056.35°W   616.1 hPa   4149m   1009.9 hPa   4.4°C   3.3°C   215° @ 056kt   57kt   35kt   1mm   OK
21:30:00z   18.16°N   056.33°W   635.3 hPa   3897m   1001.1 hPa   5.7°C   4.8°C   212° @ 053kt   54kt   36kt   1mm   OK
21:30:30z   18.18°N   056.32°W   652.8 hPa   3673m   1001.9 hPa   6.4°C   6.4°C   213° @ 054kt   55kt   37kt   0mm   Suspect
21:31:00z   18.20°N   056.30°W   671.6 hPa   3439m   1002.4 hPa   7.5°C   7.4°C   208° @ 052kt   53kt   40kt   0mm   Suspect
21:31:30z   18.22°N   056.29°W   686.0 hPa   3262m   1001.8 hPa   9.0°C   8.1°C   209° @ 053kt   54kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
21:32:00z   18.24°N   056.28°W   691.7 hPa   3193m   1001.6 hPa   9.7°C   8.5°C   208° @ 053kt   53kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
21:32:30z   18.26°N   056.26°W   693.8 hPa   3169m   1001.5 hPa   9.8°C   8.6°C   206° @ 054kt   54kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
21:33:00z   18.28°N   056.25°W   695.0 hPa   3152m   1001.1 hPa   10.0°C   8.7°C   204° @ 054kt   55kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
21:33:30z   18.31°N   056.24°W   695.1 hPa   3152m   1001.3 hPa   9.9°C   8.8°C   203° @ 056kt   56kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
21:34:00z   18.33°N   056.22°W   695.0 hPa   3152m   1001.2 hPa   10.0°C   8.7°C   200° @ 056kt   57kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
21:34:30z   18.35°N   056.21°W   695.1 hPa   3150m   1001.2 hPa   9.9°C   8.5°C   199° @ 059kt   59kt   37kt   1mm   Suspect
21:35:00z   18.38°N   056.21°W   695.2 hPa   3148m   1001.1 hPa   9.9°C   8.6°C   198° @ 059kt   59kt   38kt   1mm   OK
21:35:30z   18.40°N   056.21°W   695.2 hPa   3147m   1001.2 hPa   9.7°C   9.0°C   197° @ 060kt   60kt   40kt   2mm   OK


[drezee]

Disclaimer: yes, i know the 18z models are typically garbage...but WOW the 18z NAM has a negatively tilted trough at 84 hours about to suck Bill into New England!! Far east near the Canadian border IMO

[KWT]

Very impressive hurricane right now, plus the models have shifted westwards somewhat and at the very least looks like the odds of a Nova Scotia hit have increased and I think those in the NE should be paying very close attention now even the ECM has shifted westward.

[KWT]

Models have trended west yet further, esp the ECM which isn't really that far away from New England, certainly close enough to need to be prepared for at least possible tropical storm force winds.

Also Nogaps and NAM amazingly seem to have been the first ones to start this westerly trend.

18z runs is going to be very interesting!

[storms NC]

Does any one have that map to where you place the Highs and the hurricane around. I had it but can't find it for my gran daughter who is 6. She like my map on here. I thought she would like it.