ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[wxman57]

Oh, I'd also saved the 9-day ECMWF forecast from August 14th. Here it is, with the NHC's forecast position for Bill this Sunday morning. Pretty darn close!



Compare to the GFS 9-day forecast from August 14th - over south Florida on its way to New Orleans. The GFS has been TERRIBLE with Bill. No reason to think it's good now.

[DreamworksSKG]

Right but I mean --I still think the hurricane center took this storm a bit too lightly I mean if it had just jogged a bit south or west --it'd be heading straight for the Virgin Islands---I know they're fine now, but still I think they underestimated this storm a bit and the tracks.-

I also think they should revise in the future once they do get better at track forecasting the watch--to be more like 48 hours in advance. (at least up here past North Carolina) because storms move much quicker up here. Hurricane Bob moved from NC to almost New England in just over a day -
that'd never happen south of NC
I think 36 hours isn't enough time to get people thinking about preparations
up here North of NC-

I think it should be revised on when to issue a general watch for North of SC-NC

I think it should be like 48 hours out here. (a general watch) if they think it might hit land. (a general area)

36 should be fine for the SE--and GUlf and such but the storms move quicker up here

[caribepr]

Bill is very impressive. I wonder if it could become a Category 5 hurricane?

Doesn't appear likely, as it's already making the NW turn. Enhanced IR imagery showing warming cloud tops now. May be peaking today. Doesn't really look THAT big, just a bit above average in size. Way smaller than Ike as far as the core and hurricane force wind field.

I hear that there are super rapid-scan satellite images of Bill available from 19Z (now) to 23:15Z today:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... isloop.asp

Well, when Culebra could fit inside the eye about 20 or more times (I haven't checked on the latest size of the eye, but we're 3 miles x 7)...seems big to us!

[thetruesms]

Just to clarify, I'm not arguing that the Euro hasn't been better - it clearly has. I'm just arguing that it hasn't been the perfect model it's being hyped up to be. It's had its own issues, too, primarily in the short term.

[Derek Ortt]

0Z fcst from Aug 15

EC 48 hour center: 12.4N 37.6W. BT position 13.1N 41.3W

That is a 48 hour forecast error of close to 240NM! That's poor for the 1980's!

[Derek Ortt]

Right but I mean --I still think the hurricane center took this storm a bit too lightly I mean if it had just jogged a bit south or west --it'd be heading straight for the Virgin Islands---I know they're fine now, but still I think they underestimated this storm a bit and the tracks.-

I also think they should revise in the future once they do get better at track forecasting the watch--to be more like 48 hours in advance. (at least up here past North Carolina) because storms move much quicker up here. Hurricane Bob moved from NC to almost New England in just over a day -
that'd never happen south of NC
I think 36 hours isn't enough time to get people thinking about preparations
up here North of NC-

I think it should be revised on when to issue a general watch for North of SC-NC

I think it should be like 48 hours out here. (a general watch) if they think it might hit land. (a general area)

36 should be fine for the SE--and GUlf and such but the storms move quicker up here

watches are only issued when there is a real chance of hurricane conditions. They are not "just in case" products. That would severely reduce their effectiveness

[southerngale]

Second post only and now I have opinions lol!

I agree - a lot can change in just 1 day never mind 6 days, but I must also say my hackles/ instinct/ gut are making warning noises here. Perhaps its that a little information can be dangerous, perhaps it's something more ... For me Tomorrow and 2 or 3 more model runs will tell for me. so until then I'll wait - but be sure that if I need to act I'm ready. I dare say its all anyone can do!

Where are you located?

If you want, you can put your location in your profile and it will show up when you post, and then the rest of us will know where you are when you mention things like maybe needing to act.

Just click on "User Control Panel" in the top right corner of the page. Then click on "Profile" on the left. You can add your location there.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...BILL REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...NOW
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
535 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 970 MILES...1565
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.8N 57.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC WED AUG 19 2009

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 330SE 240SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 56.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.1N 59.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.0N 62.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.2N 64.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.9N 66.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 42.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 51.5N 50.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 57.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BILL IS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE
WITH MESOCYCLONES NOTED IN THE EYE...CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN. AN FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER RECENTLY MEASURED 135 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH
SFMR WINDS OF 103 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 947 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WAS AN SFMR MEASUREMENT OF 106 KT FROM THE NOAA
MISSION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION ARE 127 KT FROM
TAFB/SAB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT AS A
COMPROMISE OF ALL THESE DATA.

VERY WARM WATERS ARE ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE SOME SHEAR ON BILL...ONE ALONG
60W AND OTHER AT ABOUT 70W. WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE HURRICANE MUCH...MOST MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING IN A COUPLE DAYS AS A RESULT OF THE
SECOND FEATURE. IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD
OCCUR AT ANY TIME WITH A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM NOTED AT ABOUT 75 N
MI FROM THE CENTER IN AIRCRAFT DATA. REGARDLESS...ALL OF THE
RELIABLE MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THAT
LIKELIHOOD.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER...NOW
305/17. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP BILL ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW
SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
SLOWER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...BILL WOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY
THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 19.8N 57.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 21.1N 59.7W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 23.0N 62.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 25.2N 64.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 27.9N 66.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 42.0N 65.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 51.5N 50.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

[cpdaman]

just for certain .....are there any models that close the weakness in the 55-65 longitudes over the next 12 hours.......i was just noticing a slight 3 hour trend here

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

and yes i realize the EC trough will pick it up............just wondering if there is a mechanism to bend Bill back WNW for another day or so? any promet response would be greatly appreciated

[Robjohn53]

I guess i must be crazy, and might be. I am more confused as to reading the post of which
models are the best. What I'd like to know is this. When Anna and Bill both were named, Channel
13 news on Bright House had them coming straight into East Central Florida. They were way to far away to even suggest,
such a path, Being so far out and not that far from Africa. What models were they watching then? We all know the path changes as the go. To scare everyone here was wrong, being so far away.

Robjohn53

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Well this is my first post of 2009. However Since I am from Portland Maine I have been keeping a very close watch on Hurricane Bill. But yeah this is just my luck. I just really start development on my MMORPG and we could be threatened by a Hurricane which would result in loosing power for a while at the very least.

*NOTE to self* Backup all my design documents and everything on my travel drive before sunday just in case!

[cycloneye]

Below is the paragraph from the 5 PM discussion related to the west shift of the models and what NHC thinks about that.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER...NOW
305/17. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP BILL ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW
SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
SLOWER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...BILL WOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2031.shtml

[RattleMan]

Running again:

URNT15 KWBC 192035
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 01 20090819
202600 1445N 05834W 5712 04805 0048 +018 -148 220015 015 999 999 03
202630 1447N 05833W 5712 04804 0048 +018 -164 220016 017 999 999 03
202700 1449N 05832W 5713 04802 0044 +019 -144 216018 019 999 999 03
202730 1451N 05831W 5714 04799 0044 +019 -156 216018 019 999 999 03
202800 1453N 05830W 5712 04802 0041 +020 -139 217019 019 999 999 03
202830 1455N 05828W 5714 04800 0039 +021 -149 219019 019 999 999 03
202900 1458N 05827W 5714 04800 0041 +021 -158 220018 018 999 999 03
202930 1500N 05826W 5714 04800 0040 +021 -173 219018 018 999 999 03
203000 1502N 05825W 5713 04801 0041 +022 -199 221016 017 999 999 03
203030 1504N 05824W 5715 04799 0037 +024 -203 217017 017 999 999 03
203100 1506N 05824W 5715 04799 0037 +026 -263 213015 016 999 999 03
203130 1507N 05826W 5715 04800 0039 +024 -276 219013 014 999 999 03
203200 1507N 05828W 5715 04799 0040 +024 -289 224012 012 005 000 03
203230 1506N 05829W 5717 04797 0039 +025 -282 222012 013 004 000 03
203300 1504N 05830W 5715 04799 0040 +023 -234 225014 014 004 000 03
203330 1502N 05831W 5716 04798 0037 +024 -233 222014 014 004 000 03
203400 1500N 05832W 5716 04798 0039 +023 -195 222016 016 004 000 03
203430 1458N 05833W 5716 04797 0040 +022 -147 222016 017 004 000 03
203500 1456N 05834W 5716 04798 0041 +021 -143 224015 016 999 999 03
203530 1454N 05835W 5717 04795 0042 +020 -143 224015 016 999 999 03

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
20:26:00z   14.45°N   058.34°W   571.2 hPa   4805m   1004.8 hPa   1.8°C   -.8°C   220° @ 015kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:26:30z   14.47°N   058.33°W   571.2 hPa   4804m   1004.8 hPa   1.8°C   -.4°C   220° @ 016kt   17kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:27:00z   14.49°N   058.32°W   571.3 hPa   4802m   1004.4 hPa   1.9°C   -.4°C   216° @ 018kt   19kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:27:30z   14.51°N   058.31°W   571.4 hPa   4799m   1004.4 hPa   1.9°C   -.6°C   216° @ 018kt   19kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:28:00z   14.53°N   058.30°W   571.2 hPa   4802m   1004.1 hPa   2.0°C   -.9°C   217° @ 019kt   19kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:28:30z   14.55°N   058.28°W   571.4 hPa   4800m   1003.9 hPa   2.1°C   -.9°C   219° @ 019kt   19kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:29:00z   14.58°N   058.27°W   571.4 hPa   4800m   1004.1 hPa   2.1°C   -.8°C   220° @ 018kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:29:30z   15.00°N   058.26°W   571.4 hPa   4800m   1004.0 hPa   2.1°C   -.3°C   219° @ 018kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:30:00z   15.02°N   058.25°W   571.3 hPa   4801m   1004.1 hPa   2.2°C   -.9°C   221° @ 016kt   17kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:30:30z   15.04°N   058.24°W   571.5 hPa   4799m   1003.7 hPa   2.4°C   -.3°C   217° @ 017kt   17kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:31:00z   15.06°N   058.24°W   571.5 hPa   4799m   1003.7 hPa   2.6°C   -.3°C   213° @ 015kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:31:30z   15.07°N   058.26°W   571.5 hPa   4800m   1003.9 hPa   2.4°C   -.6°C   219° @ 013kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:32:00z   15.07°N   058.28°W   571.5 hPa   4799m   1004.0 hPa   2.4°C   -.9°C   224° @ 012kt   12kt   5kt   0mm   Suspect
20:32:30z   15.06°N   058.29°W   571.7 hPa   4797m   1003.9 hPa   2.5°C   -.2°C   222° @ 012kt   13kt   4kt   0mm   Suspect
20:33:00z   15.04°N   058.30°W   571.5 hPa   4799m   1004.0 hPa   2.3°C   -.4°C   225° @ 014kt   14kt   4kt   0mm   Suspect
20:33:30z   15.02°N   058.31°W   571.6 hPa   4798m   1003.7 hPa   2.4°C   -.3°C   222° @ 014kt   14kt   4kt   0mm   Suspect
20:34:00z   15.00°N   058.32°W   571.6 hPa   4798m   1003.9 hPa   2.3°C   -.5°C   222° @ 016kt   16kt   4kt   0mm   Suspect
20:34:30z   14.58°N   058.33°W   571.6 hPa   4797m   1004.0 hPa   2.2°C   -.7°C   222° @ 016kt   17kt   4kt   0mm   Suspect
20:35:00z   14.56°N   058.34°W   571.6 hPa   4798m   1004.1 hPa   2.1°C   -.3°C   224° @ 015kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:35:30z   14.54°N   058.35°W   571.7 hPa   4795m   1004.2 hPa   2.0°C   -.3°C   224° @ 015kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect


[terrapintransit]

That's nuts. I have been getting a weird feeling about this one shifting further to the west.

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KWBC 192045
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 02 20090819
203600 1452N 05836W 5717 04797 0043 +020 -143 221015 015 999 999 03
203630 1450N 05837W 5716 04796 0043 +019 -141 218015 015 999 999 03
203700 1448N 05838W 5716 04796 0044 +019 -140 219014 014 999 999 03
203730 1446N 05839W 5717 04796 0044 +019 -140 218014 014 999 999 03
203800 1444N 05840W 5717 04796 0045 +019 -144 219012 012 999 999 03
203830 1442N 05841W 5718 04796 0039 +023 -162 216012 012 999 999 03
203900 1441N 05842W 5718 04797 0039 +024 -161 210011 011 999 999 03
203930 1441N 05845W 5719 04796 0040 +023 -161 204012 012 999 999 03
204000 1443N 05845W 5721 04792 0041 +022 -159 204014 015 999 999 03
204030 1445N 05844W 5722 04788 0043 +020 -152 212016 016 999 999 03
204100 1447N 05843W 5719 04793 0044 +019 -142 213016 016 999 999 03
204130 1449N 05842W 5718 04794 0043 +020 -141 216017 017 999 999 03
204200 1451N 05841W 5718 04794 0039 +022 -150 219017 018 999 999 03
204230 1453N 05839W 5718 04793 0038 +023 -162 220018 018 999 999 03
204300 1455N 05838W 5714 04800 0036 +023 -161 221017 018 999 999 03
204330 1457N 05837W 5716 04796 0038 +022 -158 220018 018 999 999 03
204400 1459N 05835W 5716 04796 0038 +022 -154 219019 020 999 999 03
204430 1502N 05834W 5716 04797 0035 +024 -179 220018 018 999 999 03
204500 1504N 05833W 5715 04796 0036 +024 -201 220017 018 999 999 03
204530 1506N 05831W 5715 04796 0035 +024 -240 221016 017 999 999 03

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
20:36:00z   14.52°N   058.36°W   571.7 hPa   4797m   1004.3 hPa   2.0°C   -.3°C   221° @ 015kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:36:30z   14.50°N   058.37°W   571.6 hPa   4796m   1004.3 hPa   1.9°C   -.1°C   218° @ 015kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:37:00z   14.48°N   058.38°W   571.6 hPa   4796m   1004.4 hPa   1.9°C   -.0°C   219° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:37:30z   14.46°N   058.39°W   571.7 hPa   4796m   1004.4 hPa   1.9°C   -.0°C   218° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:38:00z   14.44°N   058.40°W   571.7 hPa   4796m   1004.5 hPa   1.9°C   -.4°C   219° @ 012kt   12kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:38:30z   14.42°N   058.41°W   571.8 hPa   4796m   1003.9 hPa   2.3°C   -.2°C   216° @ 012kt   12kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:39:00z   14.41°N   058.42°W   571.8 hPa   4797m   1003.9 hPa   2.4°C   -.1°C   210° @ 011kt   11kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:39:30z   14.41°N   058.45°W   571.9 hPa   4796m   1004.0 hPa   2.3°C   -.1°C   204° @ 012kt   12kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:40:00z   14.43°N   058.45°W   572.1 hPa   4792m   1004.1 hPa   2.2°C   -.9°C   204° @ 014kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:40:30z   14.45°N   058.44°W   572.2 hPa   4788m   1004.3 hPa   2.0°C   -.2°C   212° @ 016kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:41:00z   14.47°N   058.43°W   571.9 hPa   4793m   1004.4 hPa   1.9°C   -.2°C   213° @ 016kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:41:30z   14.49°N   058.42°W   571.8 hPa   4794m   1004.3 hPa   2.0°C   -.1°C   216° @ 017kt   17kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:42:00z   14.51°N   058.41°W   571.8 hPa   4794m   1003.9 hPa   2.2°C   -.0°C   219° @ 017kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:42:30z   14.53°N   058.39°W   571.8 hPa   4793m   1003.8 hPa   2.3°C   -.2°C   220° @ 018kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:43:00z   14.55°N   058.38°W   571.4 hPa   4800m   1003.6 hPa   2.3°C   -.1°C   221° @ 017kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:43:30z   14.57°N   058.37°W   571.6 hPa   4796m   1003.8 hPa   2.2°C   -.8°C   220° @ 018kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:44:00z   14.59°N   058.35°W   571.6 hPa   4796m   1003.8 hPa   2.2°C   -.4°C   219° @ 019kt   20kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:44:30z   15.02°N   058.34°W   571.6 hPa   4797m   1003.5 hPa   2.4°C   -.9°C   220° @ 018kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:45:00z   15.04°N   058.33°W   571.5 hPa   4796m   1003.6 hPa   2.4°C   -.1°C   220° @ 017kt   18kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:45:30z   15.06°N   058.31°W   571.5 hPa   4796m   1003.5 hPa   2.4°C   -.0°C   221° @ 016kt   17kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect


URNT15 KWBC 192055
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 03 20090819
204600 1508N 05830W 5716 04796 0036 +024 -270 225016 016 999 999 03
204630 1510N 05829W 5717 04794 0036 +025 -274 223016 016 999 999 03
204700 1512N 05828W 5717 04795 0034 +027 -317 217015 016 999 999 03
204730 1514N 05826W 5718 04794 0036 +026 -313 214016 017 999 999 03
204800 1516N 05825W 5719 04792 0034 +027 -304 211015 016 999 999 03
204830 1518N 05824W 5718 04795 0037 +025 -287 213015 016 999 999 03
204900 1520N 05823W 5713 04802 0036 +025 -273 217013 014 999 999 03
204930 1522N 05821W 5714 04800 0036 +025 -252 217013 014 999 999 03
205000 1524N 05820W 5712 04802 0032 +026 -193 222013 015 999 999 03
205030 1526N 05819W 5714 04800 0039 +024 -260 217015 015 999 999 03
205100 1528N 05818W 5713 04802 0043 +022 -269 218015 015 999 999 03
205130 1530N 05816W 5713 04802 0047 +019 -222 224014 014 999 999 03
205200 1532N 05815W 5713 04801 0048 +012 -042 225013 013 999 999 03
205230 1534N 05814W 5714 04800 0052 +008 -017 220013 013 999 999 03
205300 1536N 05812W 5715 04798 0050 +009 -022 221013 014 999 999 03
205330 1539N 05811W 5713 04798 0045 +011 -028 225014 014 999 999 03
205400 1541N 05810W 5714 04796 0046 +009 -013 229014 014 999 999 03
205430 1543N 05809W 5715 04794 0049 +006 -001 234014 015 999 999 03
205500 1545N 05807W 5715 04795 0054 +004 +001 233014 015 999 999 03
205530 1547N 05806W 5717 04792 0054 +004 -003 231016 017 999 999 03

Negative dew point decodings are off in my decoder; I'll work on them shortly.

Code: Select all

20:46:00z   15.08°N   058.30°W   571.6 hPa   4796m   1003.6 hPa   2.4°C   -.0°C   225° @ 016kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:46:30z   15.10°N   058.29°W   571.7 hPa   4794m   1003.6 hPa   2.5°C   -.4°C   223° @ 016kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:47:00z   15.12°N   058.28°W   571.7 hPa   4795m   1003.4 hPa   2.7°C   -.7°C   217° @ 015kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:47:30z   15.14°N   058.26°W   571.8 hPa   4794m   1003.6 hPa   2.6°C   -.3°C   214° @ 016kt   17kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:48:00z   15.16°N   058.25°W   571.9 hPa   4792m   1003.4 hPa   2.7°C   -.4°C   211° @ 015kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:48:30z   15.18°N   058.24°W   571.8 hPa   4795m   1003.7 hPa   2.5°C   -.7°C   213° @ 015kt   16kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:49:00z   15.20°N   058.23°W   571.3 hPa   4802m   1003.6 hPa   2.5°C   -.3°C   217° @ 013kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:49:30z   15.22°N   058.21°W   571.4 hPa   4800m   1003.6 hPa   2.5°C   -.2°C   217° @ 013kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:50:00z   15.24°N   058.20°W   571.2 hPa   4802m   1003.2 hPa   2.6°C   -.3°C   222° @ 013kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:50:30z   15.26°N   058.19°W   571.4 hPa   4800m   1003.9 hPa   2.4°C   -.0°C   217° @ 015kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:51:00z   15.28°N   058.18°W   571.3 hPa   4802m   1004.3 hPa   2.2°C   -.9°C   218° @ 015kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:51:30z   15.30°N   058.16°W   571.3 hPa   4802m   1004.7 hPa   1.9°C   -.2°C   224° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:52:00z   15.32°N   058.15°W   571.3 hPa   4801m   1004.8 hPa   1.2°C   -.2°C   225° @ 013kt   13kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:52:30z   15.34°N   058.14°W   571.4 hPa   4800m   1005.2 hPa   0.8°C   -.7°C   220° @ 013kt   13kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:53:00z   15.36°N   058.12°W   571.5 hPa   4798m   1005.0 hPa   0.9°C   -.2°C   221° @ 013kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:53:30z   15.39°N   058.11°W   571.3 hPa   4798m   1004.5 hPa   1.1°C   -.8°C   225° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:54:00z   15.41°N   058.10°W   571.4 hPa   4796m   1004.6 hPa   0.9°C   -.3°C   229° @ 014kt   14kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:54:30z   15.43°N   058.09°W   571.5 hPa   4794m   1004.9 hPa   0.6°C   -.1°C   234° @ 014kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:55:00z   15.45°N   058.07°W   571.5 hPa   4795m   1005.4 hPa   0.4°C   1.1°C   233° @ 014kt   15kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
20:55:30z   15.47°N   058.06°W   571.7 hPa   4792m   1005.4 hPa   0.4°C   -.3°C   231° @ 016kt   17kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect


URNT15 KWBC 192105
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 04 20090819
205600 1549N 05805W 5716 04793 0050 +006 +000 238017 018 999 999 03
205630 1551N 05804W 5716 04793 0051 +005 -002 236017 018 999 999 03
205700 1553N 05802W 5717 04791 0046 +008 +001 235018 018 999 999 03
205730 1555N 05801W 5716 04791 0045 +007 +003 234018 018 999 999 03
205800 1557N 05800W 5716 04791 0046 +007 +001 233018 018 999 999 03
205830 1559N 05759W 5717 04790 0045 +008 +002 236018 019 999 999 03
205900 1601N 05757W 5716 04791 0046 +007 +002 235021 023 999 999 03
205930 1603N 05756W 5717 04789 0049 +006 +002 237024 025 999 999 03
210000 1606N 05755W 5717 04789 0050 +006 -013 233022 022 003 000 03
210030 1608N 05753W 5718 04788 0045 +009 -016 234022 023 999 999 03
210100 1610N 05752W 5718 04787 0036 +013 -014 236022 022 999 999 03
210130 1612N 05751W 5718 04786 0035 +013 -013 237021 022 999 999 03
210200 1614N 05750W 5720 04782 0043 +008 -006 237021 022 999 999 03
210230 1616N 05748W 5719 04784 0041 +009 -006 234023 024 999 999 03
210300 1618N 05747W 5718 04785 0043 +008 -009 237024 024 999 999 03
210330 1620N 05746W 5719 04783 0040 +009 -013 237023 024 004 000 00
210400 1622N 05745W 5719 04782 0034 +012 -014 236023 023 004 000 00
210430 1625N 05744W 5719 04781 0033 +013 -020 237023 023 004 000 00
210500 1627N 05743W 5719 04781 0039 +009 -019 239023 023 006 000 00
210530 1629N 05742W 5719 04781 0040 +009 -020 241022 022 011 000 00

URNT15 KWBC 192115
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 05 20090819
210600 1631N 05741W 5720 04780 0037 +010 -016 235024 026 013 000 03
210630 1633N 05740W 5720 04780 0037 +009 -008 230030 031 004 000 03
210700 1635N 05739W 5721 04777 0032 +011 -005 231029 031 004 000 03
210730 1637N 05737W 5721 04777 0035 +009 -006 226024 025 999 999 03
210800 1639N 05736W 5719 04778 0032 +009 +004 239024 025 999 999 03
210830 1641N 05734W 5722 04775 0027 +012 +010 239027 029 999 999 03
210900 1643N 05733W 5720 04777 0030 +012 -006 246025 028 004 000 03
210930 1645N 05731W 5722 04776 0033 +011 -023 242025 027 012 000 00
211000 1647N 05730W 5723 04774 0034 +010 -015 245029 029 025 001 03
211030 1649N 05728W 5720 04776 0031 +009 +009 240030 032 026 006 00
211100 1652N 05727W 5717 04779 0030 +009 +008 244030 032 030 005 00
211130 1654N 05726W 5724 04771 0035 +009 -007 245032 033 033 002 03
211200 1656N 05724W 5721 04775 0038 +008 -009 239034 036 031 016 03
211230 1658N 05723W 5721 04774 0035 +008 -007 245035 035 017 000 03
211300 1700N 05721W 5722 04772 0030 +010 -005 244033 034 012 001 03
211330 1702N 05719W 5724 04770 0028 +011 -007 241034 034 015 004 00
211400 1704N 05718W 5723 04770 0036 +007 -005 241034 035 999 999 03
211430 1706N 05716W 5723 04770 0029 +011 -012 240035 035 006 000 00
211500 1708N 05715W 5723 04770 0035 +008 -012 240036 036 005 000 00
211530 1710N 05714W 5712 04785 0040 +004 -014 238037 037 999 999 03

URNT15 KWBC 192125
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 06 20090819
211600 1712N 05713W 5714 04783 0034 +008 -027 237037 037 999 999 03
211630 1715N 05711W 5713 04783 0030 +010 -038 238037 038 004 000 03
211700 1717N 05710W 5713 04781 0026 +012 -040 238038 038 006 000 00
211730 1719N 05709W 5713 04781 0028 +010 -028 237038 038 006 000 03
211800 1721N 05707W 5714 04778 0021 +013 -027 238038 039 006 000 00
211830 1724N 05706W 5715 04776 0021 +012 -028 237039 040 007 000 00
211900 1726N 05705W 5715 04774 0016 +015 -031 235039 039 009 000 00
211930 1728N 05703W 5715 04774 0020 +012 -025 233040 040 008 000 00
212000 1730N 05702W 5715 04774 0015 +014 -022 232041 041 011 000 03
212030 1733N 05700W 5716 04773 0015 +013 -014 231041 041 013 000 03
212100 1735N 05659W 5715 04772 0013 +013 -011 232042 043 017 000 03
212130 1737N 05658W 5716 04771 0011 +014 -010 234044 044 019 000 00
212200 1739N 05656W 5716 04771 0014 +013 -011 232045 045 021 000 00
212230 1742N 05655W 5717 04770 0018 +010 -008 231046 046 022 000 00
212300 1744N 05653W 5717 04769 0020 +008 -006 230047 047 023 000 03
212330 1746N 05652W 5716 04768 0020 +008 -008 230048 049 025 000 00
212400 1748N 05650W 5717 04766 0020 +008 -007 229050 050 025 000 03
212430 1751N 05649W 5718 04764 0020 +007 -006 228051 052 026 000 00
212500 1753N 05648W 5716 04764 0018 +007 -009 227052 052 029 000 00
212530 1755N 05646W 5717 04763 0016 +008 -006 228052 052 030 000 00

[MGC]

I doubt Bill becomes a Cat-5. In fact, I think Bill has likely peaked in intensity. Recon has reported a second wind maxima and the latest vortex message said the SW part of the eye was open...so it appears Bill is on the verge of an eyewall replacement cycle. If Bill does do an EWRC than the wind field should expand quite a bit. Still a threat to Canada, EC should see some big waves.....MGC

[tolakram]

Small shift to the west?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Step back and forth between the last two graphics. My goodness. Let's hope the models are all just going though a phase and in the end it shifts back east.

edit: Actually that left shift is an illusion, they really did only nudge things a tad west, my bad.

[MGC]

The models have a poleward bias.... this happens every season. I thought Bill would go west of forecast a couple of days ago and still believe that will be the case.....MGC

[btangy]

I just had a look at the 12Z ECMWF ensemble (can't post any graphics showing the raw model ouput/tracks here unfortunately), but I can tell you the ensemble envelope has also shifted further W by about (150-200km) at 40N. The deterministic run is on the E side of the ensemble cluster after 84 hours. Only one member shows landfall in New England, and majority target Nova Scotia.