ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bill is very impressive. I wonder if it could become a Category 5 hurricane?

Doesn't appear likely, as it's already making the NW turn. Enhanced IR imagery showing warming cloud tops now. May be peaking today. Doesn't really look THAT big, just a bit above average in size. Way smaller than Ike as far as the core and hurricane force wind field.

I hear that there are super rapid-scan satellite images of Bill available from 19Z (now) to 23:15Z today:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... isloop.asp

Still stunning none the less...

[wxman57]

Recent colorized image:

[cycloneye]

In Halifax they are taking it very seriously.

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/682973

[bzukajo]

Every time I check in here I see a another nudge west. Am I being paranoid?

[btangy]

12Z GEFS has continued to up the ante showing a significant cluster of tracks moving even further W with landfall over RI/ Cape Cod. Such a track would bring hurricane force conditions to portions of New England.



Each white thin line is an ensemble member, gray dashed line is the ensemble mean, and magenta dashed line is the 12Z GFS deterministic run. Colors are the probabilities of Bill passing within 150km for the GEFS ensemble only.

[Emmett_Brown]

Judging from the last few IR frames, looks like Bill is east of the NHC path

[wxman57]

the track was too slow for a long time when this first became a cyclone. Some of the errors for the first 72 hours were quite high (some 24 hour errors were over 100NM)

For my blog post last week, I showed a comparison of the various long-range model forecasts. Here's the ECMWF's August 14th 144hr forecast valid 12z tomorrow. I estimate it had the center near 21.5N/61W. NHC's forecast for tomorrow morning at 12Z is 21.7N/61W. So very, very close from 144hrs out. I don't see the timing error on the August 14th run, that's for sure.

ECMWF August 14th valid 12Z August 20th:


Here's the GFS valid 12Z tomorrow from August 14th. Way off:


And the Canadian, also way off:

[btangy]

12z ECMWF hits Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

Consistent with the trends in the other models, the European is a bit deeper with the energy rounding out the base of the Midwest trough and has it almost cutting off from the N stream near Lake Ontario. As a result, it shifts the track of Bill a bit W, but not as far W as the remainder of the model consensus. Still, the threat to New England and Nova Scotia continues to increase with each run.

[wxman57]

EC's track is about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. Close enough for some 30-40 mph winds there. As long as it stays beyond 50-100 miles offshore, the impact won't be too significant in MA.

[JPmia]

I have friends vacationing in Providence, Cape Cod until this weekend. They leave Saturday morning. The models are showing Bill nearing there around Sunday? Right? Any thoughts on timing *IF* it gets close to them?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Judging from the last few IR frames, looks like Bill is east of the NHC path

thats tricky because NHC updates the paths many times throughout the day. So often it appears its right on track but if you plotting at home its apparent they just shift the red circle around

[Sanibel]

Was going to post the same thing. Slightly right of trop points.

[wxman57]

Judging from the last few IR frames, looks like Bill is east of the NHC path

Just remember that due to satellite parallax, the surface center will be near the lower left of the visible eye.

[OuterBanker]

Well looks like Bill will pass 20 n around 57 west, east of 60w in other words, another landmark. I am feeling pretty secure about us here on the Outer Banks. The northeast is still not out of the woods yet I'm afraid. Still a slim chance.

Should be west enough of Bermuda not to cause extensive damage. Besides they actually build their homes with hurricanes in mind.

Most homes in Bermuda are stucco (block homes with plaster applied) and the island itself is the top of a mountin range.

By contrast the Outer Banks consists thousands of stick built homes on a sand bar.

Please, no three pigs quotes.

[DreamworksSKG]

With a Cat 4 hurricane so close to the islands? Why haven't they at least issued a Watch? I mean --they shouldn't close the islands for business, but one jog west. and it could have been a different story---
Its a lot closer than earlier models showed.

I also think they should post a watch for SE and E new England in Fri. just because if it does shift west people need to know this and not be so complacent about it.

they should also warn mariners not to go out and stay in port esp fishing fleets the next few days (remember what happened in the no name storm-perfect storm)

I think they're being a little bit light on the warning people thing

people are already shrugging this storm off around here in NE and not paying attention to it anymore as a miss.

So what happens if the west trends continue and it takes a path Bob did.
what if it doesnt weaken as fast as they think and is a Cat 3 just off the Cape and backs in?

What if..---

I know these are what ifs but the models are still trending west

just yesterday - they had Bill hitting E Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

Today its Western-Centeral Nova Scotia, some models, now about half of them have it closer to Nantucket-Martha's Vineyard-GUlf of Maine...and even about 10 of the late cycle Models show
over E-mass.

I think the Hurricane center when this is done is going to have to look at this storm and rethink the way they make forecasts in the future. and about issuing watches-warnings

Why hasn't a hurricane watch gone up for Bermuda yet? Just in case.?

[Brent]

I have friends vacationing in Providence, Cape Cod until this weekend. They leave Saturday morning. The models are showing Bill nearing there around Sunday? Right? Any thoughts on timing *IF* it gets close to them?

It'll be Sunday whatever happens, whether it hits or misses.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

With a Cat 4 hurricane so close to the islands? Why haven't they at least issued a Watch? I mean --they shouldn't close the islands for business, but one jog west. and it could have been a different story---
Its a lot closer than earlier models showed.

I also think they should post a watch for SE and E new England in Fri. just because if it does shift west people need to know this and not be so complacent about it.

they should also warn mariners not to go out and stay in port esp fishing fleets the next few days (remember what happened in the no name storm-perfect storm)

I think they're being a little bit light on the warning people thing

people are already shrugging this storm off around here in NE and not paying attention to it anymore as a miss.

So what happens if the west trends continue and it takes a path Bob did.
what if it doesnt weaken as fast as they think and is a Cat 3 just off the Cape and backs in?

What if..---

I know these are what ifs but the models are still trending west

just yesterday - they had Bill hitting E Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

Today its Western-Centeral Nova Scotia, some models, now about half of them have it closer to Nantucket-Martha's Vineyard-GUlf of Maine...and even about 10 of the late cycle Models show
over E-mass.

I think the Hurricane center when this is done is going to have to look at this storm and rethink the way they make forecasts in the future. and about issuing watches-warnings

Why hasn't a hurricane watch gone up for Bermuda yet? Just in case.?

Its all speculation. Bill is still thousands of miles/6 days away. Im sure watches will come. No need for any panic mongering

[Derek Ortt]

there is no need for a watch for the carib as hurricane conditions just are not possible

[ronjon]

Looks like the 12Z GFS operational run is on the east side of the ensemble guidance. In fact, the mean of the ensemble runs is very close to cape cod - say 50 miles offshore. The 00Z runs will be interesting tonight.

[Shaun2453]

Second post only and now I have opinions lol!

I agree - a lot can change in just 1 day never mind 6 days, but I must also say my hackles/ instinct/ gut are making warning noises here. Perhaps its that a little information can be dangerous, perhaps it's something more ... For me Tomorrow and 2 or 3 more model runs will tell for me. so until then I'll wait - but be sure that if I need to act I'm ready. I dare say its all anyone can do!