New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[KWT]

More then likely CZ, esp if the eastern Atlantic keeps pumping out decent waves like the ones that formed Ana and Bill.

[Stormcenter]

Do you mean from now going forward?

Regardless if this one develops or not, I think there will still be a couple of more waves developing into canes before the end of September...

[ConvergenceZone]

Do you mean from now going forward?

Regardless if this one develops or not, I think there will still be a couple of more waves developing into canes before the end of September...

Yes, meaning that I don't think it will be an abrupt early ending season. I think we should get at least a couple of more canes between now and the end of September.

I'm not sold on the October, November talk. Beause I've heard that before during seasons where every thing seems to shut off by the end of September.... I don't think the activity will die down that early though. Perhaps the hose will shut off late September though, hard to say....

[StormClouds63]

Wave moving off of Africa behind Bill shows some organization (though less impressive than earlier). However, take a look at the next blob following it.

Who knows regarding development. Sometimes those real huge blobs go poof pretty fast; other times, they can develop like we saw with Dean and Bill.

http://image.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

As far as I know, don't think any models picking up this feature up yet.

[Patrick99]

Africa has been pumping out robust waves all season. Wouldn't surprise me at all if there were a couple more storms before the month is out. Nor do I buy the idea that this is a no-landfall season just because one storm appears likely to head north early. How many times have we seen trough after trough, then in late August all through September, a big Bermuda high sets up just when you don't want it to. And then, a big trough comes in October and actually turns the storms toward you instead of away.....hehe

[Gustywind]

[StormClouds63]

The big blob over west Africa indeed went poof! One image it looks huge; the next, it's gone! Looks like after Bill, all is clear as far as Cape Verde systems (at least for a little while).

[KWT]

Just looks like a typical wave axis coming off Africa now. Still could yet see some development down the line.

[Frank2]

KWT,

I haven't had the time to check - when is the positive MJO phase forecast to depart the Atlantic basin?

Thanks

[KWT]

Well the positive phase is ending and probably won't be back till mid September. Saying that I really don't think at the heart of a season its going to make much of a difference to be honest, still should see at least another 3 storms in September I'd imagine.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, tropics are going to be drying up for awhile..... No sign of anything after Bill....

It was fun to watch Bill develop thouigh...Hopefully it will miss burmuda.....

I still think we'll see something in September. The season isn't going to end that quick.

[Frank2]

I don't think so, either, but if this year is similar to the El Nino event of 2006, it might end after September, when strong shear essentially made it impossible for anything else to form...

[Sanibel]

I'd imagine the September MJO phase will be a real show.


Don't write that Africa wave off until it is certain it doesn't refire. There could be a vortex not yet off the coast.

[StormClouds63]

Yes, looks like this pulse of activity may be over for at least the next couple of weeks.

[Meso]

This may be what the models are picking up on

[Aric Dunn]

Euro dvelops this wave and has it in the bahamas at 168 hours.. which seems very fast.. but its a sign of possible development as the gfs also develops this wave..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[KWT]

Yeah the models are developing something there thats for sure, the good news is there still seems to be a weakness present left behind from Bill however we need to watch closely just in case, esp given the time of year, reaching the peak...

[cycloneye]

Euro dvelops this wave and has it in the bahamas at 168 hours.. which seems very fast.. but its a sign of possible development as the gfs also develops this wave..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

And CMC too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

18z shows something in the Cape Verde region again this run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Slower then the ECM run though it seems by quite a way...maybe ECM is developing the wave just west of 60W instead?

[KWT]

Pretty good agreement as it happens from the Euro and the GFS for a wave to get to around 60-70W then start to recurve.