ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[btangy]

3 model grand global ensemble from 8/18/09 at 12Z (12Z MOGREPS-UKMET members were not available to me when I made this graphic). Ensemble members are converging on a track between 65-70W, though I should mention that the 18Z GEFS members were slightly further southwest through 120 hours. It'll be interesting to see if the 00Z deterministic runs continue shifting west or have converged.

[cycloneye]

I saw at TWC an interview with a goverment official in Bermuda and he said major preparations haved started.I haved heard that they prepare very well as they haved had many landfalling or close calls of strong hurricanes.

[MGC]

125mph is no suprise here. Bill's eye contracted quite a bit this afternoon and convection is impressive in all quads. SFMR only samples the ocean directly under the recon aircraft, it has a rather narrow beamwidth. The ouflow in the west quad does look a bit restricted. All in all a beautiful hurricane....MGC

[jaxfladude]

I saw at TWC an interview with a government official in Bermuda and he said major preparations have started.I have heard that they prepare very well as they have had many land-falling or close calls of strong hurricanes.

Prayers for Bermuda.

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190108
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 31 20090819
005830 1454N 05144W 6429 03846 0056 +072 +003 202040 042 999 999 03
005900 1456N 05143W 6428 03847 0045 +070 +069 199038 043 035 015 03
005930 1458N 05142W 6434 03839 0048 +069 +065 201038 042 035 005 03
010000 1500N 05141W 6406 03873 0055 +063 +063 199040 041 999 999 03
010030 1503N 05139W 6428 03845 0058 +064 +054 201043 043 999 999 03
010100 1505N 05138W 6411 03868 0062 +063 +033 199044 044 999 999 03
010130 1507N 05137W 6438 03833 0060 +067 +030 198044 045 999 999 03
010200 1510N 05136W 6436 03833 0060 +066 +026 199044 045 999 999 03
010230 1512N 05135W 6437 03832 0053 +072 +008 197045 045 026 000 03
010300 1514N 05134W 6437 03832 0052 +073 -002 194046 046 024 000 03
010330 1517N 05134W 6435 03835 0052 +073 -001 194046 046 999 999 03
010400 1519N 05133W 6436 03834 0051 +073 +009 195046 046 999 999 03
010430 1522N 05133W 6435 03834 0050 +072 +012 195047 048 999 999 03
010500 1524N 05132W 6435 03834 0054 +070 +015 195048 048 999 999 03
010530 1527N 05132W 6437 03832 0052 +071 +015 195049 049 999 999 03
010600 1529N 05131W 6437 03831 0050 +072 +011 195049 049 999 999 03
010630 1532N 05130W 6437 03831 0049 +073 +011 193049 049 999 999 03
010700 1534N 05129W 6438 03829 0050 +072 +015 192049 049 022 000 03
010730 1537N 05128W 6436 03831 0051 +071 +018 191050 050 999 999 03
010800 1539N 05127W 6436 03831 0053 +068 +024 190051 051 999 999 03

[MGC]

Pray for everyone in the path of Bill.....MGC

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT12 KWBC 190039
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/0020Z
B. 16 DEG 55 MIN N
53 DEG 4 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2742 M
D. 100 KT
E. 330 DEG 20 NM
F. 055 DEG 120 KT
G. 327 DEG 26 NM
H. EXTRAP 955 MB
I. 11 C/3070 M
J. 20 C/3062 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 OB 11
MAX FL WND 120 KT NNW QUAD 0013Z.
SUR PRESS EXTRAP FROM 10 K FEET

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190118
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 32 20090819
010830 1541N 05126W 6435 03832 0053 +068 +023 188051 051 999 999 03
010900 1544N 05125W 6435 03831 0051 +069 +026 188052 052 999 999 03
010930 1546N 05124W 6435 03831 0055 +066 +031 187051 051 999 999 03
011000 1549N 05124W 6435 03832 0058 +064 +036 188051 051 999 999 03
011030 1551N 05123W 6437 03828 0059 +063 +034 186052 052 999 999 03
011100 1554N 05122W 6436 03829 0058 +064 +033 185052 052 999 999 03
011130 1556N 05121W 6436 03829 0052 +067 +034 184050 051 999 999 03
011200 1559N 05121W 6436 03829 0050 +068 +033 182051 051 999 999 03
011230 1601N 05120W 6436 03828 0048 +069 +031 182052 052 999 999 03
011300 1604N 05119W 6437 03827 0049 +069 +032 182053 054 999 999 03
011330 1607N 05119W 6436 03828 0052 +067 +030 181054 054 999 999 03
011400 1609N 05118W 6437 03827 0052 +066 +031 180054 054 999 999 03
011430 1612N 05117W 6435 03829 0052 +066 +031 181054 054 999 999 03
011500 1614N 05116W 6438 03825 0055 +064 +034 179055 055 999 999 03
011530 1616N 05115W 6437 03827 0059 +061 +039 179054 056 029 000 03
011600 1618N 05113W 6435 03831 0061 +061 +039 175053 054 025 000 03
011630 1620N 05112W 6436 03831 0066 +058 +043 173053 054 999 999 03
011700 1622N 05110W 6437 03831 0061 +063 +036 174053 054 999 999 03
011730 1624N 05109W 6438 03830 0055 +069 +020 176054 055 999 999 03
011800 1626N 05107W 6437 03833 0054 +072 +005 174055 055 999 999 03

[Emmett_Brown]

Noticeable flattening of the CDO on the left side, and it seems like Bill is slowing just a tad. Some W shear perhaps?

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190128
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 33 20090819
011830 1628N 05105W 6436 03836 0052 +075 -013 172054 054 999 999 03
011900 1630N 05104W 6436 03835 0056 +070 +021 172052 052 999 999 03
011930 1632N 05103W 6437 03835 0051 +074 +023 171052 053 999 999 03
012000 1634N 05102W 6436 03836 0050 +073 +028 171053 054 033 000 03
012030 1636N 05101W 6438 03833 0047 +075 +028 173052 055 999 999 03
012100 1639N 05059W 6437 03833 0050 +073 +035 172056 060 999 999 03
012130 1641N 05058W 6435 03837 0055 +071 +030 170057 058 999 999 03
012200 1643N 05057W 6437 03836 0062 +068 +018 171055 056 999 999 03
012230 1645N 05055W 6437 03838 0066 +064 +048 171054 054 999 999 03
012300 1647N 05054W 6436 03842 0075 +060 +039 170053 054 999 999 03
012330 1649N 05052W 6436 03842 0070 +065 +026 168055 055 999 999 03
012400 1651N 05051W 6436 03843 0070 +066 +020 167055 055 999 999 03
012430 1653N 05049W 6438 03841 0073 +064 +031 162054 054 999 999 03
012500 1655N 05048W 6437 03843 0079 +059 +045 162052 052 999 999 03
012530 1657N 05047W 6437 03844 0078 +061 +048 161050 051 999 999 03
012600 1659N 05045W 6437 03844 0076 +061 +054 158050 051 999 999 03
012630 1701N 05044W 6437 03843 0073 +065 +034 156050 051 999 999 03
012700 1704N 05045W 6438 03841 0071 +064 +045 157052 053 999 999 03
012730 1705N 05048W 6437 03841 0071 +064 +043 158051 051 999 999 03
012800 1705N 05050W 6437 03841 0073 +063 +037 157053 053 999 999 03

[Macrocane]

I noticed that the strongest convection is not surrounding the center but another ring of weaker convection, is Bill doing another EWRC as someone mentioned before? If it is, then the intensification will stop for a while or even Bill will weaken a little, though I don't think that the NHC will reduce the intensity on the next advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Upper-level shear is about 15 kt from west to east. Mid-level shear isn't much at all.

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KWBC 190138
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 34 20090819
012830 1705N 05052W 6438 03839 0068 +066 +031 157054 054 999 999 03
012900 1705N 05055W 6437 03839 0071 +064 +030 157053 054 999 999 03
012930 1705N 05057W 6438 03836 0075 +060 +033 158053 054 999 999 03
013000 1705N 05059W 6437 03837 0067 +065 +022 159055 057 999 999 03
013030 1705N 05102W 6437 03835 0068 +063 +023 161056 056 999 999 03
013100 1705N 05104W 6438 03833 0068 +060 +043 163051 056 999 999 03
013130 1705N 05106W 6442 03828 0062 +064 +040 159049 050 999 999 03
013200 1705N 05108W 6433 03835 0057 +064 +044 154053 054 999 999 03
013230 1705N 05111W 6419 03857 0062 +061 +037 153057 059 999 999 03
013300 1705N 05113W 6415 03856 0057 +064 +030 158055 056 999 999 03
013330 1705N 05116W 6416 03855 0058 +061 +039 160058 059 999 999 03
013400 1705N 05118W 6413 03858 0059 +059 +040 160059 060 999 999 03
013430 1705N 05121W 6414 03854 0058 +057 +047 160060 061 999 999 03
013500 1705N 05123W 6414 03853 0048 +061 +061 161059 060 999 999 03
013530 1705N 05125W 6415 03851 0046 +063 +048 160062 063 999 999 03
013600 1705N 05128W 6415 03848 0040 +067 +033 164065 066 999 999 03
013630 1705N 05130W 6414 03846 0032 +070 +036 162064 065 999 999 03
013700 1705N 05132W 6414 03843 0035 +065 +039 160066 067 999 999 03
013730 1704N 05135W 6414 03841 0038 +061 +044 158067 068 999 999 03
013800 1704N 05137W 6415 03838 0035 +061 +053 156068 068 999 999 03

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190148
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 35 20090819
013830 1704N 05140W 6414 03836 0032 +060 +058 156070 070 999 999 03
013900 1704N 05142W 6414 03831 0027 +060 +059 155071 072 999 999 03
013930 1704N 05144W 6413 03830 0021 +061 +061 154072 073 999 999 03
014000 1705N 05147W 6413 03828 0018 +063 +061 157074 074 999 999 03
014030 1705N 05149W 6415 03825 0019 +061 +057 158076 077 999 999 03
014100 1705N 05152W 6417 03819 0016 +061 +051 158077 078 999 999 03
014130 1705N 05154W 6425 03806 0014 +060 +049 159080 080 999 999 03
014200 1705N 05157W 6427 03799 0011 +061 +049 161081 081 999 999 03
014230 1705N 05159W 6446 03771 0007 +062 +047 162083 084 999 999 03
014300 1706N 05202W 6423 03796 0003 +059 +051 160085 086 999 999 03
014330 1706N 05204W 6422 03792 0003 +053 +052 161079 080 999 999 03
014400 1706N 05207W 6397 03818 0009 +045 +045 163084 088 999 999 03
014430 1707N 05209W 6430 03775 0003 +050 +050 160083 084 051 015 03
014500 1707N 05212W 6433 03763 9994 +051 +051 165081 085 053 025 03
014530 1707N 05214W 6417 03781 9966 +064 +064 176072 073 060 016 03
014600 1708N 05216W 6449 03743 9964 +070 +069 174072 073 999 999 03
014630 1708N 05219W 6488 03688 9960 +072 +071 172074 074 999 999 03
014700 1708N 05221W 6515 03647 9947 +077 +077 175074 077 059 013 03
014730 1709N 05223W 6568 03581 9947 +082 +080 173078 080 056 005 03
014800 1709N 05226W 6655 03466 9944 +086 +086 171076 077 053 001 03

[cjrciadt]

Those FL tracks can go to................................... Not very likely, but still.

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190158
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 36 20090819
014830 1709N 05228W 6732 03367 9947 +088 +087 172079 081 999 999 03
014900 1709N 05230W 6776 03304 9938 +093 +087 174082 083 053 002 03
014930 1709N 05232W 6897 03153 9933 +102 +089 174082 083 051 003 03
015000 1710N 05235W 6962 03067 9928 +104 +092 172084 085 052 001 03
015030 1710N 05237W 6961 03063 9926 +099 +096 170087 088 999 999 03
015100 1710N 05239W 6959 03054 9907 +107 +098 169089 090 058 002 03
015130 1710N 05241W 6961 03045 9901 +106 +089 172094 095 057 000 03
015200 1710N 05244W 6964 03030 9887 +107 +090 171098 099 060 001 03
015230 1711N 05246W 6963 03020 9871 +110 +087 168100 101 061 000 03
015300 1711N 05248W 6960 03011 9863 +105 +094 169103 104 065 000 03
015330 1711N 05250W 6953 03006 9850 +102 +098 168105 107 063 003 03
015400 1711N 05252W 6940 03007 9830 +103 +099 169109 110 071 000 03
015430 1711N 05255W 6964 02960 9800 +113 +098 170114 116 076 008 03
015500 1711N 05257W 6939 02969 9780 +107 +107 171120 123 079 014 03
015530 1710N 05259W 6949 02936 9754 +110 +107 172124 126 074 026 03
015600 1710N 05301W 6938 02925 9715 +120 +120 180117 122 077 027 03
015630 1710N 05302W 6948 02899 9692 +125 +125 181098 106 078 026 00
015700 1710N 05304W 6966 02859 9664 +134 +134 178088 088 079 006 03
015730 1710N 05306W 6985 02818 9634 +148 +134 178077 082 068 000 03
015800 1710N 05308W 6981 02810 9614 +153 +132 177069 072 999 999 03

[CrazyC83]

Latest run had 126 kt FL winds (translates to 113 kt at the surface), and the SFMR was almost entirely flagged.

[The Eye Wall]

I think 125 mph is generous. I agree with Derek. The structure is ok, but has many flaws. Ragged eye, shear encrouching on the west side. Definitely a major, but not high end IMO. I literally drew a line, as shown, on the western flank. The structure is marginal at best. Also pointing out again, as said earlier, that it will soon start a more northerly course as being indicated by the clouds being pulled off to the north (the arrows). That's always a good indication of future direction. Bill should become very elongated eventually.

Keep in mind that as Bill heads up the east coast, it will accelerate and will likely become almost extratropical looking as it's caught up in the trough. It's eye will likely be exposed on the southern side by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes. You'll have to add forward momentum to whatever the given wind is at that time.

[CrazyC83]

Good thing this is on crack tonight...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2009 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 17:16:46 N Lon : 53:01:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 923.1mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.0 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +16.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF