ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Yeah I think Frank is right, even if it keeps its current heading its heading to the north of PR. However it does seem like far Eastern Canada and possibly even far NE US still need to keep a careful eye on this one, models have trended your way.

[KWT]

Yep it is impressive cycloneye, the eye has closed up a little again as deeper convection develops. Looks like its steadily strengthening at the moment.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF hits Nova Scotia.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

That looks like it hits Newfoundland, not Nova Scotia.

My bad,yes Newfoundland.

[Macrocane]

It has not recovered completely from the EWRC IMO. It looks pretty good on visible but not that good on IR, only the data from the mission can tell at this moment if it is already a major or not.

[mattpetre]

When Ike was projected to recurve up the FL coast or most westwardly strike FL, were the models in much less agreement than they are currently or is there the possibility in this case of a big surprise like with Ike?

[Thunder44]

000
URNT12 KNHC 181945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 18/19:20:40Z
B. 16 deg 22 min N
052 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 2784 m
D. 82 kt
E. 051 deg 29 nm
F. 140 deg 114 kt
G. 051 deg 28 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 9 C / 3087 m
J. 18 C / 3076 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 1234 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0103A BILL OB 11
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 19:12:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 056 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
;


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:20:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°22'N 52°04'W (16.3667N 52.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 553 miles (890 km) to the ENE (66°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,784m (9,134ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 140° at 114kts (From the SE at ~ 131.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 963mb (28.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,087m (10,128ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,076m (10,092ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:12:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center

[Thunder44]

I'm going to take a break from posting the obs. Someone else can take over:



000
URNT15 KNHC 181948
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 31 20090818
193900 1537N 05252W 6954 03114 9982 +096 +083 312039 041 041 001 00
193930 1535N 05253W 6951 03119 9984 +098 +081 313040 041 040 001 00
194000 1534N 05255W 6950 03121 9984 +099 +074 314037 037 040 001 00
194030 1532N 05257W 6948 03130 9994 +093 +076 314039 040 040 001 00
194100 1531N 05258W 6951 03125 9998 +092 +077 317041 041 041 000 00
194130 1529N 05300W 6953 03126 0000 +090 +074 322042 042 040 000 00
194200 1527N 05301W 6953 03133 0008 +089 +079 319041 041 038 000 00
194230 1526N 05303W 6953 03131 0010 +087 +082 319040 040 039 000 00
194300 1524N 05305W 6951 03138 0013 +090 +080 320038 038 038 000 00
194330 1522N 05306W 6952 03139 0017 +086 +085 317037 038 038 000 00
194400 1521N 05308W 6953 03138 0022 +085 +085 316038 039 037 000 00
194430 1519N 05309W 6963 03127 0021 +085 +085 314037 038 038 000 00
194500 1518N 05311W 6943 03152 0024 +084 +084 318039 039 036 000 00
194530 1516N 05312W 6951 03143 0025 +085 +085 320038 039 035 001 00
194600 1515N 05314W 6949 03151 0025 +089 +080 319037 038 034 000 00
194630 1513N 05315W 6950 03151 0029 +086 +078 321037 038 033 000 00
194700 1512N 05317W 6949 03151 0027 +088 +076 323036 036 033 000 00
194730 1510N 05318W 6942 03159 0029 +085 +074 322037 038 034 001 00
194800 1509N 05319W 6941 03163 0033 +082 +082 320035 036 035 003 00
194830 1508N 05321W 6949 03151 0034 +083 +083 320034 035 037 001 00
$$
;

[HurricaneQueen]

I found this loop of Bill amazing. It's almost as if he blows up right in front of your eyes. WOW

Please give it time to load fully: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Lynn

Second: I certainly wouldn't want to be sitting in the Northern Antilles right now watching him barrelling down and waiting for the turn- "Now, darn it Now".

Be safe my friends-Barb, MJ, Luis, and so many more. Hopefully, this will just be a dry run.

[KWT]

Its close to major hurricane status if nothing else Macrocane, I'd imagine it won't be long before it makes it.

[Thunder44]

Should post this drop in the SW eyewall, before I break. Surface winds were 82kts. But MBL was 102kts:

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 18th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 16.2N 52.3W
Location: 534 miles (860 km) to the ENE (66°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 042 (About)


Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
969mb (28.61 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
25.4°C (77.7°F)
25.1°C (77.2°F)
290° (from the WNW)
82 knots (94 mph)
1000mb
-280m (-919 ft)
Other data not available.
925mb
408m (1,339 ft)
23.8°C (74.8°F)
22.0°C (71.6°F)
315° (from the NW)
104 knots (120 mph)
850mb
1,148m (3,766 ft)
20.4°C (68.7°F)
20.2°C (68.4°F)
330° (from the NNW)
78 knots (90 mph)
700mb
2,816m (9,239 ft)
15.0°C (59.0°F)
15.0°C (59.0°F)
305° (from the NW)
57 knots (66 mph)


Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:24Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall. (225 - This is either the radians or degrees to the eye center. Our system cannot tell the difference.)

Splash Location: 16.17N 52.22W
Splash Time: 19:28Z

Release Location: 16.22N 52.26W
Release Time: 19:24:49Z

Splash Location: 16.18N 52.22W
Splash Time: 19:28:00Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 305° (from the NW)
- Wind Speed: 102 knots (117 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 320° (from the NW)
- Wind Speed: 74 knots (85 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 695mb to 968mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 300° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 102 knots (117 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
969mb (Surface)
25.4°C (77.7°F)
25.1°C (77.2°F)
948mb
23.6°C (74.5°F)
23.2°C (73.8°F)
884mb
23.2°C (73.8°F)
20.5°C (68.9°F)
850mb
20.4°C (68.7°F)
20.2°C (68.4°F)
798mb
18.2°C (64.8°F)
17.5°C (63.5°F)
771mb
19.0°C (66.2°F)
16.0°C (60.8°F)
729mb
15.4°C (59.7°F)
14.2°C (57.6°F)
714mb
15.2°C (59.4°F)
15.2°C (59.4°F)
705mb
16.6°C (61.9°F)
16.6°C (61.9°F)
695mb
13.4°C (56.1°F)
13.4°C (56.1°F)



Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
969mb (Surface)
290° (from the WNW)
82 knots (94 mph)
966mb
290° (from the WNW)
95 knots (109 mph)
956mb
300° (from the WNW)
108 knots (124 mph)
946mb
305° (from the NW)
110 knots (127 mph)
938mb
305° (from the NW)
103 knots (119 mph)
924mb
315° (from the NW)
104 knots (120 mph)
915mb
315° (from the NW)
96 knots (110 mph)
894mb
320° (from the NW)
107 knots (123 mph)
885mb
320° (from the NW)
99 knots (114 mph)
866mb
325° (from the NW)
94 knots (108 mph)
858mb
330° (from the NNW)
83 knots (96 mph)
850mb
330° (from the NNW)
78 knots (90 mph)
817mb
340° (from the NNW)
69 knots (79 mph)
754mb
325° (from the NW)
47 knots (54 mph)
695mb
305° (from the NW)
57 knots (66 mph)

The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.

---

Dropsonde Diagram:

[Derek Ortt]

there is no reason to increase the winds at all. 85-90KT seems appropriate based upon the SFMR readings

and we probably should stop using the term "major hurricane". Right now, at 90KT if this would cross land, damage would be severe

[bzukajo]

Did that run have Cape Cod under this thing on frames 21 and 22? Looks like Boston too. Did I just see that? Too close for comfort.

[Brent]

Closer to the coast, way too close to call.

[KWT]

Then again those readings may be a touch on the lower side, I can't imagine given the explosive convection its got that there is going to be a good 25-30kts worth of difference from the 114kts found at flight level and those 85-90kts. Still saying that your probably right

As for the term major, I've made a post about that in your thread.

[mattpetre]

Although no one has commented on my comparison to early model runs on then Hurricane Ike (which was quite a bit more north at this longitude than Bill), I just can't see from looking at the trends in the steering products how this could possibly stay as far out to sea as the models are currently predicting. The ridge would either need to split and move (East) more quickly than it currently appears to be doing or it would need to retrograde over the CONUS and let Bill slip into the current weakness just above it. Am I totally missing something? My unprofessional opinion thinks this will make some sort of CONUS landfall (albeit on the E. Coast, not some sort of crazy wishcasted TX hit or anything like Ike was...)

Another analog to Ike was the presence of 3 similarly positioned systems (although of somewhat different strengths) at the time it was at this longitude.

[jasons2k]

Although no one has commented on my comparison to early model runs on then Hurricane Ike (which was quite a bit more north at this longitude than Bill), I just can't see from looking at the trends in the steering products how this could possibly stay as far out to sea as the models are currently predicting. The ridge would either need to split and move (East) more quickly than it currently appears to be doing or it would need to retrograde over the CONUS and let Bill slip into the current weakness just above it. Am I totally missing something? My unprofessional opinion thinks this will make some sort of CONUS landfall (albeit on the E. Coast, not some sort of crazy wishcasted TX hit or anything like Ike was...)

Another analog to Ike was the presence of 3 similarly positioned systems (although of somewhat different strengths) at the time it was at this longitude.

Huge EC trough this time. It's not the same scenario as Ike, although early-on there were some whispers of the ridge building and pushing Bill west for the long haul...but that was a millennium ago in weather time.

[shah8]

eh...
If I'm reading the maps right, the nogaps and euro models does actually impact Nova Scotia. Halifax, actually, is on the hot seat.

[Frank2]

Huh? East of Bermuda?

Derek,

Oops - my error (and that's without TWC or JB)...

P.S. In reading the various discussions, it seems there is a little uncertainty about the strength of the upcoming troughs, so, make that "west of Bermuda" (but east of Cape Hatteras)...

=D

[bob rulz]

there is no reason to increase the winds at all. 85-90KT seems appropriate based upon the SFMR readings

and we probably should stop using the term "major hurricane". Right now, at 90KT if this would cross land, damage would be severe

Even the NHC uses the term major hurricane though...don't see why it's inappropriate or anything.

[bzukajo]

Quote:
Huh? East of Bermuda?


Derek,

Oops - my error (and that's without TWC or JB)...

P.S. In reading the various discussions, it seems there is a little uncertainty about the strength of the upcoming troughs, so, make that "west of Bermuda" (but east of Cape Hatteras)...

=D

mmmm...does that not make it south of Cape Cod? This thing is way too close....If the troughs are weaker than expected....then what?