ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Yup I know theres probably a recon thread, but for those watching in here - a screenie of an eye crossing.

[Gustywind]

BIG BABY BILL

[KWT]

there is always a dip in there....a bit of a upside down bell curve between the 30 sec obs...i would still expect it to be in the 950s.

We will see on the next recon pass whether it comes in any lower. Should be noted that is just an extrap pressure as well.

[CrazyC83]

Stronger winds in the SE quad than the NW quad - weird...

[Derek Ortt]

RFQ = right front quadrant

[artist]

thanks, that's what I meant - said it backwards!

[The Eye Wall]

RFQ = right front quadrant

WOW, I missed that one. I'm thinking severe weather.

[KWT]

CMC rakes Newfoundland with its northern quadrant. Will be probably be going extra-troical, or at least starting to but could still be a very big hit if thats the case.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

TABLE 2. Recommended operational wind adjustment factors for adjusting reconnaissance flight-level winds

Code: Select all

Flight level           Eyewall    Outer vortex (convection)   Outer vortex (not in convection)
700 hPa                 0.90                 0.85                       0.80
850 hPa                 0.80                 0.80                       0.75
925 hPa                 0.75                 0.75                       0.75
1000 ft (305 m)         0.80                 0.80                       0.80

From: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?req ... O%3B2&ct=1

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

What is the difference in the break in the HP you cite, and the one due North, and thus why would it not already be making a stronger move Northward. Sorry for the ignorance.

For starters its moving the wrong way. canes cannot lurch around and take a 120 degree turn to follow it. Bill is following the periphery of that ridge, and as the weakness to the north moves to the east - it's already missed it. HP is again building in, and we should actually expect Bill to pick up a bit of steam when we see a bit more of a turn to the NW.

[KWT]

Its probably because the southern side is better formed, the northern side hasn't been looking the strongest IMO over the last few hours, a little bare.

Also looks like models are getting closer to Newfoundland each run...looks to be the biggest threat since Juan up there thats for sure.

[drezee]

there is always a dip in there....a bit of a upside down bell curve between the 30 sec obs...i would still expect it to be in the 950s.

drop gives 962

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181808
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 21 20090818
175900 1543N 05113W 6941 03084 9928 +100 +083 211070 071 055 003 00
175930 1542N 05112W 6939 03094 9933 +100 +086 212068 069 054 003 00
180000 1541N 05111W 6941 03093 9937 +099 +094 212068 069 054 003 00
180030 1540N 05110W 6938 03103 9945 +096 +096 210069 071 054 006 00
180100 1539N 05109W 6939 03103 9947 +096 +096 210070 071 054 006 00
180130 1538N 05108W 6941 03108 9956 +093 +093 211070 071 054 006 00
180200 1537N 05106W 6941 03108 9961 +088 +088 211069 073 055 006 01
180230 1536N 05105W 6934 03125 9990 +076 +999 218068 073 052 010 01
180300 1534N 05104W 6939 03120 9977 +087 +087 214072 072 051 005 00
180330 1533N 05103W 6941 03122 9990 +081 +999 210068 070 050 005 01
180400 1532N 05102W 6939 03128 9984 +082 +082 207064 065 049 005 01
180430 1531N 05101W 6944 03122 9982 +092 +086 203066 067 046 005 00
180500 1530N 05100W 6938 03137 9984 +094 +077 203066 067 047 003 00
180530 1529N 05059W 6941 03135 9992 +092 +082 202065 066 048 003 00
180600 1528N 05057W 6943 03135 9994 +092 +088 200064 064 048 004 00
180630 1527N 05056W 6940 03140 9996 +091 +091 197066 067 048 005 00
180700 1526N 05055W 6938 03143 9999 +090 +088 196064 066 046 007 00
180730 1525N 05054W 6939 03143 9997 +093 +087 199066 067 048 006 00
180800 1524N 05053W 6940 03146 9992 +101 +080 199064 065 048 005 00
180830 1523N 05052W 6940 03145 9995 +100 +071 197063 063 046 007 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Just confirms the extrap pressure of 961.5mbs really doesn't it.

[floridasun78]

Why?

If it's going to recurve it better start turning soon.

you got leedward islands to it west

[Thunder44]

Eye Drop pressure 962mb:

Code: Select all

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.22N 51.74W
Splash Time: 17:50Z

Release Location: 16.22N 51.73W
Release Time: 17:46:17Z

Splash Location: 16.22N 51.74W
Splash Time: 17:50:13Z

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 694mb to 970mb

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
962mb
26.2°C (79.2°F)
26.0°C (78.8°F)
865mb
21.6°C (70.9°F)
20.4°C (68.7°F)
850mb
22.0°C (71.6°F)
18.5°C (65.3°F)
842mb
22.4°C (72.3°F)
Approximately 17°C (63°F)
704mb
18.2°C (64.8°F)
Approximately 9°C (48°F)
694mb
15.6°C (60.1°F)
Approximately 6°C (43°F)



Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
970mb
260° (from the W)
2 knots (2 mph)
957mb
140° (from the SE)
9 knots (10 mph)
920mb
130° (from the SE)
5 knots (6 mph)
862mb
90° (from the E)
10 knots (12 mph)
850mb
85° (from the E)
7 knots (8 mph)
694mb
165° (from the SSE)
3 knots (3 mph)

 

[Thunder44]

VDM decoded below:

000
URNT12 KNHC 181818
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 18/17:46:10Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
051 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2793 m
D. 85 kt
E. 315 deg 16 nm
F. 049 deg 94 kt
G. 315 deg 22 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 9 C / 3076 m
J. 17 C / 3078 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E06/40/30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0103A BILL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 97 KT SE QUAD 17:51:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 97 KT SE QUAD 17:51:50Z
;


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 18:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 17:46:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°14'N 51°44'W (16.2333N 51.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 570 miles (917 km) to the ENE (68°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,793m (9,163ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 49° at 94kts (From the NE at ~ 108.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 962mb (28.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,076m (10,092ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,078m (10,098ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 60° to 240° (ENE to WSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:51:50Z

[thetruesms]

RFQ = right front quadrant

WOW, I missed that one. I'm thinking severe weather.

I was about to say - sounds like some kind of crazy mashup between Right Front Quadrant and Rear Flank Downdraft

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181808
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 21 20090818
175900 1543N 05113W 6941 03084 9928 +100 +083 211070 071 055 003 00
175930 1542N 05112W 6939 03094 9933 +100 +086 212068 069 054 003 00
180000 1541N 05111W 6941 03093 9937 +099 +094 212068 069 054 003 00
180030 1540N 05110W 6938 03103 9945 +096 +096 210069 071 054 006 00
180100 1539N 05109W 6939 03103 9947 +096 +096 210070 071 054 006 00
180130 1538N 05108W 6941 03108 9956 +093 +093 211070 071 054 006 00
180200 1537N 05106W 6941 03108 9961 +088 +088 211069 073 055 006 01
180230 1536N 05105W 6934 03125 9990 +076 +999 218068 073 052 010 01
180300 1534N 05104W 6939 03120 9977 +087 +087 214072 072 051 005 00
180330 1533N 05103W 6941 03122 9990 +081 +999 210068 070 050 005 01
180400 1532N 05102W 6939 03128 9984 +082 +082 207064 065 049 005 01
180430 1531N 05101W 6944 03122 9982 +092 +086 203066 067 046 005 00
180500 1530N 05100W 6938 03137 9984 +094 +077 203066 067 047 003 00
180530 1529N 05059W 6941 03135 9992 +092 +082 202065 066 048 003 00
180600 1528N 05057W 6943 03135 9994 +092 +088 200064 064 048 004 00
180630 1527N 05056W 6940 03140 9996 +091 +091 197066 067 048 005 00
180700 1526N 05055W 6938 03143 9999 +090 +088 196064 066 046 007 00
180730 1525N 05054W 6939 03143 9997 +093 +087 199066 067 048 006 00
180800 1524N 05053W 6940 03146 9992 +101 +080 199064 065 048 005 00
180830 1523N 05052W 6940 03145 9995 +100 +071 197063 063 046 007 00
$$

[hurricanetrack]

FWIW- the new UKMET gets Bill to 70.8w before fading back to the east. Closer and closer to the U.S. with each run on most of these models- not all, but most.