ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[OuterBanker]

Norfolk to Bermuda would be one to really avoid.

[OuterBanker]

KWT, I'm suprised at another recon with a system that is so far away and not much of a threat to conus.

Of course it is a beauty, a great training flight.

[CrazyC83]

If Recon finds a major hurricane, it will likely be too late for a special advisory - they'd probably issue a Tropical Cyclone Update around 2:30 to 3:00 pm.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Meteorologyman - The above is more proper for a soon to be major. Well its slightly higher level. In that you can see the break beginning in the HP near the gulfstream. This weakness is progged to move east, thus the hole Bill finds. (at least I think)

[artist]

KWT, I'm suprised at another recon with a system that is so far away and not much of a threat to conus.

Of course it is a beauty, a great training flight.

there are the US Virgin Islands in the area as well as Puerto Rico, not too too far away.

[Thunder44]

Just made the pass through the eye. Lowest extrap pressure 961.5mb. FL wind max 94kts, SFMR max 85kts



000
URNT15 KNHC 181748
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 19 20090818
173900 1631N 05202W 6937 02976 9816 +089 +060 045088 090 076 024 00
173930 1630N 05201W 6945 02952 9803 +086 +060 049092 094 080 035 00
174000 1629N 05200W 6927 02960 9787 +083 +060 050090 092 082 029 00
174030 1628N 05159W 6941 02919 9757 +094 +060 060080 086 083 018 00
174100 1627N 05157W 6957 02883 9728 +104 +060 056063 065 084 014 03
174130 1626N 05156W 6923 02916 9698 +118 +060 044055 058 085 009 00
174200 1624N 05155W 6926 02905 9659 +148 +060 046043 046 079 004 00
174230 1623N 05154W 6918 02912 9637 +162 +060 043029 033 078 000 00
174300 1622N 05152W 6938 02876 9625 +165 +060 046021 023 061 002 03
174330 1620N 05151W 6944 02867 9628 +159 +060 048018 018 036 001 03
174400 1619N 05150W 6938 02873 9626 +159 +060 043014 015 032 000 03
174430 1618N 05148W 6936 02873 9615 +169 +060 041012 013 028 000 03
174500 1617N 05147W 6942 02864 9616 +166 +060 054009 010 029 000 03
174530 1615N 05146W 6930 02876 9622 +161 +060 063004 007 031 001 00
174600 1614N 05145W 6941 02863 9621 +160 +060 110002 003 029 002 00
174630 1612N 05143W 6939 02867 9627 +156 +060 206002 003 028 002 00
174700 1611N 05142W 6942 02864 9631 +151 +060 230008 010 028 001 00
174730 1610N 05141W 6939 02867 9635 +151 +060 223014 015 029 002 03
174800 1609N 05140W 6943 02864 9635 +153 +060 219020 021 031 002 00
174830 1607N 05138W 6943 02870 9640 +151 +060 217026 031 034 002 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

NW quad supports 85 kt (the NE quad is next?). Pressure found to be 962mb.

[KWT]

Recon just found a central pressure of roughly 961mbs and winds of probably about 80-85kts in the NW Eyewall.

[OuterBanker]

Of course, our 51st state and our possessions. Sorry Cycloneye.

[KWT]

Given there was 85kts in the NW seems like Bill probably has strengthened just a touch since the last advisory came out, I'd imagine recon will find 90-95kts, maybe even just enough to justify major hurricane status but we shall see.

[Derek Ortt]

keep in mind they just flew thru the RFQ

[drezee]

vortex soon

keep in mind they just flew thru the RFQ

Being that its moving at about 300degrees (and they flew in about 310-320)....technically he's right...but the strongest winds are likely at about 335-360 (using a compass)

[artist]

Thunder - is it 10% reduction of flight level for the winds?

[skufful]

Meteorologyman - The above is more proper for a soon to be major. Well its slightly higher level. In that you can see the break beginning in the HP near the gulfstream. This weakness is progged to move east, thus the hole Bill finds. (at least I think)

What is the difference in the break in the HP you cite, and the one due North, and thus why would it not already be making a stronger move Northward. Sorry for the ignorance.

[KWT]

I think whatever the case is we've clearly got at least a category-2 here, also pressure still in the 960s.

[Thunder44]

Thunder - is it 10% reduction of flight level for the winds?

They are flying at around 3000 meters or 700mb. So 90% is standard reduction here.

95kt max at flight level, in the SE Quad.



000
URNT15 KNHC 181758
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 20 20090818
174900 1606N 05137W 6938 02880 9642 +152 +060 217038 041 038 000 00
174930 1605N 05136W 6939 02886 9652 +150 +060 220050 056 042 002 00
175000 1604N 05134W 6939 02893 9660 +152 +060 221063 066 045 003 00
175030 1602N 05133W 6955 02885 9684 +143 +060 226073 074 060 001 00
175100 1601N 05132W 6930 02931 9693 +146 +060 228076 079 069 003 00
175130 1600N 05131W 6944 02932 9722 +137 +060 236089 094 076 005 00
175200 1559N 05129W 6946 02953 9741 +143 +060 235093 095 078 005 00
175230 1557N 05128W 6931 02984 9774 +129 +060 228091 093 079 004 00
175300 1556N 05127W 6944 02985 9801 +119 +060 224088 091 076 005 00
175330 1555N 05126W 6938 03008 9851 +088 +060 218088 091 070 011 00
175400 1554N 05124W 6935 03020 9855 +096 +060 215090 092 069 009 00
175430 1553N 05123W 6942 03023 9859 +105 +060 215086 088 069 006 00
175500 1552N 05122W 6940 03036 9874 +101 +060 210084 084 065 000 00
175530 1551N 05121W 6936 03046 9878 +104 +060 207083 084 064 001 00
175600 1550N 05120W 6937 03055 9889 +100 +060 204080 080 062 002 00
175630 1550N 05120W 6937 03055 9905 +093 +060 206077 078 060 003 00
175700 1548N 05118W 6939 03064 9909 +096 +070 207075 075 057 003 00
175730 1547N 05117W 6939 03071 9907 +102 +091 208074 075 056 003 00
175800 1546N 05116W 6940 03073 9911 +102 +085 209073 074 056 003 00
175830 1544N 05114W 6939 03081 9923 +100 +083 210072 072 056 003 00
$$

[Stormcenter]

Why?

If it's going to recurve it better start turning soon.

[artist]

keep in mind they just flew thru the RFQ

Derek, what is the RFQ? Sorry, I don't remember that acronym offhand.

[drezee]

there is always a dip in there....a bit of a upside down bell curve between the 30 sec obs...i would still expect it to be in the 950s.

[The Eye Wall]

keep in mind they just flew thru the RFQ

Derek, what is the RFQ? Sorry, I don't remember that acronym offhand.

Right Front Quadrant.