ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Thunder44]

From 11AM discussion:

A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
REMNANTS OF ANA HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY INTO BILL THIS AFTERNOON.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE HURRICANE.

When this flight takes off, I will only be posting obs from this mission this afternoon. Unless there's a drop in the inner core from the NOAA3 mission

[CrazyC83]

When is the AF takeoff, 1800Z?

[Derek Ortt]

NOAA 43 is not synoptic surveillance. It flies through the hurricane as well

[hurricanefloyd5]

Looks like Bill is forming a stadium eye to me. Hopefully Bill goes fishing....

I saw that on the last 1-2 frames the eye has a stdium structer to it LOL BLAZIN BILL is on the move!!!!!!!!!!

[btangy]

There is an important difference between the 00Z and 12Z NAM though. The 12Z NAM has more energy rounding the base of the trough as it forms in the Midwest, digs it deeper, and slows it down. It seems each run has been doing this more and more. With this split jet pattern, blocking and cutoffs can develop, so the evolution of the trough that's supposed to ultimately recurve Bill is still uncertain with regards to amplitude and progression. Nevertheless, the current run of the NAM shows the trough progressive enough to probably keep Bill away from New England, but not Canada.

[captmrwill]

12z NAM just finished, not too much out of the ordinary, compared to the previous run at 78/84 hours Bill is slightly more south on the latest run due to a stronger ridge in place, but the NAM continues to bring the fairly strong trough off the coast near the same period.

Bill is entering the model domain via boundary conditions and isn't actually analyzed in the NAM domain yet @ t=0 (it's basically entering the southeastern edge of the full NAM-12 domain), so while the synoptic elements developing over/off the CONUS have some validity, anything related to Bill's track itself should generally be taken with a grain of salt.

[Thunder44]

AF mission has begun:

[meteorologyman]

Okay I am confused. Yes I would love for this storm to be fish, but I don't quite understand this map.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm4.GIF

There is weakness just north or Northeast of Bill and its not going that way, and there his a strong huge highpressure to North and northwest which tells me I can only see this moving west. and I know that weather patterns change so it may be a little different now.

[hiflyer]

http://www.royalgazette.com/siftology.r ... ctionId=60

They are still mellow about it in Bermuda...grin.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181538
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 06 20090818
152900 1739N 06155W 3759 08077 0457 -194 -413 068017 017 026 001 03
152930 1739N 06152W 3759 08069 0451 -195 -413 069017 017 999 999 03
153000 1739N 06150W 3759 08032 0437 -193 -414 069017 018 999 999 03
153030 1739N 06147W 3759 08051 0440 -191 -414 066018 018 999 999 03
153100 1739N 06144W 3759 08074 0464 -191 -414 065018 018 999 999 03
153130 1739N 06142W 3759 08078 0461 -191 -414 065018 018 999 999 03
153200 1739N 06139W 3759 08076 0460 -190 -414 062017 018 999 999 03
153230 1739N 06137W 3758 08082 0461 -190 -414 063017 017 999 999 03
153300 1739N 06134W 3759 08085 0461 -190 -415 066017 018 025 001 03
153330 1739N 06131W 3758 08082 0462 -190 -416 066017 017 026 000 03
153400 1739N 06129W 3759 08083 0462 -190 -418 067017 017 999 999 03
153430 1739N 06126W 3759 08085 0462 -190 -419 069017 017 999 999 03
153500 1739N 06124W 3759 08083 0464 -191 -420 067017 017 022 002 03
153530 1739N 06121W 3758 08084 0463 -194 -420 068017 017 999 999 03
153600 1739N 06119W 3759 08084 0467 -192 -419 068017 017 999 999 03
153630 1739N 06116W 3751 08111 0463 -195 -419 071019 019 024 001 03
153700 1739N 06113W 3759 08083 0462 -190 -420 070017 017 023 001 03
153730 1739N 06111W 3759 08081 0462 -190 -422 069017 017 026 000 03
153800 1739N 06108W 3759 08082 0462 -193 -424 070017 017 025 001 03
153830 1739N 06106W 3759 08079 0463 -195 -425 069017 017 025 001 03
$$

[storms NC]

This is JMO only

I was just about to say it was moving about 280 290 then read the out look they came out at 11 AM. it is moveing 285 so not a bad guess. It is moving more west than north. then it jumps north a little. So I still say close to the Islands but not a hit maybe some bands. then the turn to more to the north. how much I don't know cause of the trough that will be or should be comeing off the coast. Now I have always been told that a hurricane will go to a front but not a High. So it comes down to timing and what Bill wants. A fish he will be. But could come close to the EC and ride it up. Just my 2 cents

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181549
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 07 20090818
153900 1739N 06103W 3759 08084 0463 -194 -424 070017 017 026 001 03
153930 1739N 06100W 3758 08082 0464 -194 -423 069016 017 999 999 03
154000 1739N 06058W 3759 08085 0463 -195 -422 066016 016 026 001 03
154030 1739N 06055W 3759 08083 0463 -195 -419 065015 016 026 000 03
154100 1739N 06053W 3759 08081 0463 -195 -417 065016 016 027 000 03
154130 1739N 06050W 3759 08083 0462 -195 -413 063015 015 999 999 03
154200 1739N 06047W 3759 08084 0462 -195 -412 064015 016 999 999 03
154230 1739N 06045W 3759 08081 0462 -195 -412 065015 015 027 000 03
154300 1739N 06042W 3758 08085 0462 -195 -410 067014 014 999 999 03
154330 1739N 06040W 3759 08083 0461 -195 -406 068013 014 027 000 03
154400 1739N 06037W 3759 08086 0462 -195 -403 071013 013 026 000 03
154430 1739N 06034W 3759 08077 0460 -195 -404 075013 013 027 000 03
154500 1739N 06032W 3759 08081 0460 -195 -403 074013 013 028 000 03
154530 1739N 06029W 3759 08086 0460 -195 -402 072013 013 026 000 00
154600 1739N 06027W 3759 08083 0460 -195 -403 071013 013 028 000 00
154630 1739N 06024W 3759 08082 0460 -195 -402 071013 013 028 000 03
154700 1739N 06021W 3759 08075 0460 -195 -403 074012 012 028 000 00
154730 1739N 06019W 3759 08080 0460 -195 -405 077012 012 030 000 03
154800 1739N 06016W 3759 08088 0461 -195 -408 079012 013 029 000 00
154830 1739N 06013W 3759 08079 0460 -195 -408 081012 013 030 000 03
$$

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12z NAM just finished, not too much out of the ordinary, compared to the previous run at 78/84 hours Bill is slightly more south on the latest run due to a stronger ridge in place, but the NAM continues to bring the fairly strong trough off the coast near the same period.

Bill is entering the model domain via boundary conditions and isn't actually analyzed in the NAM domain yet @ t=0 (it's basically entering the southeastern edge of the full NAM-12 domain), so while the synoptic elements developing over/off the CONUS have some validity, anything related to Bill's track itself should generally be taken with a grain of salt.

Indeed once the recon data is entered into the frame work, both for Bill himself & the surrounding oceanic environment, I'll feel much better about the projected long term track of Hurricane Bill.

[Derek Ortt]

12Z GFS is SW of the previous a little through 72 hours

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181558
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 08 20090818
154900 1739N 06011W 3759 08078 0460 -195 -406 079013 013 030 000 03
154930 1739N 06008W 3758 08082 0461 -195 -402 078013 013 030 000 03
155000 1739N 06006W 3758 08082 0461 -195 -403 080013 013 031 000 03
155030 1739N 06003W 3759 08082 0460 -195 -403 082012 013 030 000 03
155100 1739N 06000W 3759 08084 0461 -195 -402 083012 012 031 000 03
155130 1739N 05958W 3759 08079 0460 -195 -401 083012 012 999 999 03
155200 1739N 05955W 3758 08082 0459 -195 -399 082012 012 999 999 03
155230 1739N 05952W 3759 08076 0458 -195 -401 079012 012 029 000 03
155300 1739N 05950W 3758 08078 0458 -195 -404 080013 013 029 000 03
155330 1739N 05947W 3759 08083 0458 -195 -400 080012 012 999 999 03
155400 1739N 05945W 3759 08081 0458 -195 -397 084011 011 999 999 03
155430 1739N 05942W 3759 08077 0459 -195 -392 089011 011 030 000 03
155500 1739N 05939W 3759 08081 0458 -195 -388 089011 011 999 999 03
155530 1739N 05937W 3758 08081 0458 -195 -384 086011 011 030 000 03
155600 1739N 05934W 3759 08073 0457 -195 -383 083010 011 030 000 03
155630 1739N 05931W 3759 08077 0456 -195 -383 077010 010 031 000 03
155700 1739N 05929W 3759 08075 0457 -195 -386 077009 010 030 000 03
155730 1739N 05926W 3758 08076 0455 -195 -388 076010 010 030 000 03
155800 1739N 05923W 3759 08073 0455 -195 -385 074010 010 031 000 03
155830 1739N 05921W 3759 08076 0454 -195 -387 075010 010 031 000 03
$$
;

[OuterBanker]

I don't know if anyone noticed but he was spot on (for you UK people) on the tropical points. But, he was also 3 hrs early. I wonder if that will make a difference? 18z location 15 z arrival.

[storms NC]

Looks like naybe a new eye wall or double?

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181608
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 09 20090818
155900 1739N 05918W 3759 08072 0455 -195 -387 071010 010 999 999 03
155930 1739N 05915W 3759 08075 0454 -195 -389 071009 010 999 999 03
160000 1739N 05913W 3758 08077 0454 -195 -387 071009 009 999 999 03
160030 1739N 05910W 3759 08076 0453 -192 -385 069009 009 031 000 03
160100 1739N 05908W 3758 08074 0453 -192 -384 069009 009 031 000 03
160130 1739N 05905W 3759 08071 0452 -190 -386 070009 010 032 000 03
160200 1739N 05902W 3759 08069 0453 -190 -387 069009 009 032 000 03
160230 1739N 05900W 3758 08072 0452 -191 -384 068009 009 033 000 03
160300 1739N 05857W 3760 08071 0452 -190 -382 067008 008 033 000 03
160330 1739N 05854W 3758 08070 0453 -191 -384 073009 010 999 999 03
160400 1739N 05852W 3759 08070 0453 -190 -384 078011 012 029 000 03
160430 1739N 05849W 3758 08075 0453 -190 -390 081011 011 029 000 03
160500 1739N 05846W 3758 08076 0453 -190 -390 083011 011 030 000 03
160530 1739N 05844W 3759 08073 0454 -190 -388 083011 011 999 999 03
160600 1739N 05841W 3759 08072 0453 -190 -387 083011 011 030 000 03
160630 1739N 05838W 3759 08073 0453 -190 -386 082011 011 031 000 03
160700 1739N 05836W 3759 08074 0453 -190 -382 086012 012 030 000 03
160730 1739N 05833W 3758 08071 0454 -190 -383 088012 012 030 000 03
160800 1739N 05831W 3759 08072 0453 -190 -386 083011 012 999 999 03
160830 1739N 05828W 3759 08071 0452 -190 -388 085012 012 029 000 03
$$
;

[knotimpaired]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Folks, the model support indicating it will miss the Leewards is in such excellent agreement not sure we need to keep mentioning or hinting at any possibilities it will move much more west than where the NHC has it going, at least within the next 3-4 days or so -- and I even think that 3-5 day cone should shift more to the right over time as well. There really is no debate with the fact it will miss the Leewards to the north far enough so that all the winds and heavy rain will be far to the north. Additionally I will say those in Florida are safe and probably anywhere south of North Carolina --- very safe from Bill.

If this system can just miss Bermuda and landmasses upstream from that (a pretty decent chance but still not certain), we could have the perfect Atlantic system to track -- a major churning harmlessly in the Atlantic.

Model agreement and what really happens can be quite different and you know that as well as anyone. To say there is NO debate is like saying it's 100 percent certain. I'm sure north is the direction...but for us the when can get mighty close and the difference in being right or wrong can be very serious with a big storm. so please don't go saying people are safe when you (unless you have a lot bigger pull with Mother Nature than anyone in the universe) don't know.

Thank you MJ.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181618
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 10 20090818
160900 1739N 05825W 3759 08072 0451 -190 -389 085011 012 999 999 03
160930 1739N 05823W 3759 08074 0452 -190 -387 083012 012 028 000 03
161000 1739N 05820W 3759 08073 0452 -190 -384 083012 012 999 999 03
161030 1739N 05817W 3752 08078 0452 -194 -395 082014 014 028 000 03
161100 1739N 05815W 3751 08074 0444 -190 -401 085014 014 999 999 03
161130 1739N 05812W 3753 08077 0443 -190 -404 090014 014 029 000 03
161200 1739N 05810W 3759 08065 0449 -185 -406 091013 013 999 999 03
161230 1739N 05807W 3759 08071 0450 -185 -409 090012 012 028 000 03
161300 1738N 05804W 3758 08072 0450 -185 -411 092010 011 999 999 03
161330 1738N 05802W 3759 08067 0449 -185 -413 087010 011 029 000 03
161400 1738N 05759W 3759 08069 0449 -183 -416 087010 010 029 000 03
161430 1738N 05756W 3758 08064 0449 -184 -420 083010 011 029 000 03
161500 1738N 05754W 3759 08064 0448 -184 -422 075010 011 029 000 03
161530 1738N 05751W 3759 08069 0447 -180 -425 075008 008 999 999 03
161600 1738N 05748W 3758 08070 0447 -180 -427 072008 008 029 000 03
161630 1738N 05746W 3759 08071 0448 -180 -430 068008 008 999 999 03
161700 1738N 05743W 3758 08066 0447 -180 -431 061007 007 999 999 03
161730 1738N 05740W 3759 08066 0446 -180 -432 058007 007 999 999 03
161800 1738N 05738W 3760 08068 0446 -180 -433 064007 007 029 000 03
161830 1738N 05735W 3758 08070 0447 -180 -435 070007 008 029 000 03
$$
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