Will it miss the leeward islands?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Will it miss the leeward islands?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2003 6:27 am

It is moving WNW now but as we know that tracks of tropical systems varies with some wobbles and about this system if it wobbles a little to the left it well may make landfall in the norhern leewards meaning Antigua,Barbuda,St Martin but hopefully it misses all the islands..
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2003 7:46 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

12.5n-46.9w the SSD puts the position in their latest dvorak update so it has to climb much more in latitud to then miss all the islands..
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#3 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 02, 2003 7:52 am

Don't think it will miss them. The high is anchored over Bermuda for the next several days and the flow is east to west. I think it is feeling out the ridge and seeing how far north it (the ridge) will let it go. The northern islands, PR, VI really need to watch this.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2003 8:30 am

The models are iniciating the 12:00 UTC run at 12.6n-46.9w so that area SW of the convection is where we have to look.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
chadtm80

#5 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Aug 02, 2003 10:26 am

WREL model maps show it going Just N. http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: abajan, Hurricane2022, riapal, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker and 52 guests