ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[MGC]

Bill looks to be moving just north of west tonight. I belive the ridge to Bill's north is stonger than the models forecast. The trough that will turn Bill to the north is quite evident on WV. IMO Bill will track a bit west of current forecast passing between Bermuda and the EC. It will be a threat to Canada though. Bill should hit Cat-3 tomorrow and possibly flirt with Cat-4 intensity.....MGC

[bzukajo]

Who here has this thing visiting MA

[Derek Ortt]

How far north can Bill go and maintain major hurricane strength?

to Canada if it has the trough support

[Cainer]

The Gulfstream data is what I'm particularly interested in at this point. Will the GF data be ingested into the 12z models tommorow morning? And will the GF data ingested be enough to give us a pretty definitive track?

Also, all of the models seem to indicate at least some level of threat to Atlantic Canada and millions live there. So, even if CONUS is spared...

From Wiki:

The population of the Atlantic provinces was 2,332,535 in 2007.[1]

So Atlantic Canada is HEAVILY populated.

One thing to note about the Atlantic provinces is that majority of the population is pretty locally concentrated - Halifax accounts for about 15% of the population of the Atlantic provinces, and Saint John's a further 8%. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, especially, are mostly rural. Which is probably good, as those two provinces are the ones that jut out right in the paths of incoming hurricanes. Still, I'm not trying to downplay the threat of Bill to the Atlantic provinces - as a resident of Southwest Nova Scotia myself, and having gone through Hurricanes Noel and Kyle and seeing the damage caused by Juan in Halifax, I know from experience the effects a tropical system in Atlantic Canada. Just saying that the target zones where things could potentially be very bad are rather small here in the Maritimes; hopefully Bill won't wind up being a needle-threader like Juan.

[Duffy1966]

I remember I had a friend in Halifax around the time that Juan Hit and they got alot of Damage....it was pretty bad.
I live along the Maine Coast, I guess I can't completely write this off yet either eh?

[CrazyC83]

The Gulfstream data is what I'm particularly interested in at this point. Will the GF data be ingested into the 12z models tommorow morning? And will the GF data ingested be enough to give us a pretty definitive track?

Also, all of the models seem to indicate at least some level of threat to Atlantic Canada and millions live there. So, even if CONUS is spared...

From Wiki:

The population of the Atlantic provinces was 2,332,535 in 2007.[1]

So Atlantic Canada is HEAVILY populated.

One thing to note about the Atlantic provinces is that majority of the population is pretty locally concentrated - Halifax accounts for about 15% of the population of the Atlantic provinces, and Saint John's a further 8%. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, especially, are mostly rural. Which is probably good, as those two provinces are the ones that jut out right in the paths of incoming hurricanes. Still, I'm not trying to downplay the threat of Bill to the Atlantic provinces - as a resident of Southwest Nova Scotia myself, and having gone through Hurricanes Noel and Kyle and seeing the damage caused by Juan in Halifax, I know from experience the effects a tropical system in Atlantic Canada. Just saying that the target zones where things could potentially be very bad are rather small here in the Maritimes; hopefully Bill won't wind up being a needle-threader like Juan.

St. John's is probably an easier target than Halifax considering the angle it is coming in. To hit Halifax head-on, it would need to make landfall near Peggy's Cove, and at that angle would lose the Gulf Stream a lot sooner.

[Brent]

[PTrackerLA]

It's been so long since the NE has taken a big hit by a hurricane. Wouldn't it be something if it happens during this El Nino year. I would be pretty concerned about Bill in the NE but I bet alot of residents have become complacent over the past few decades. I'm sure Fox News and CNN will take care of the hype though if it ever actually becomes an imminent threat lol.

[floridasun78]

their have one during day? or only one at 4am?

[deltadog03]

about to head to bed, but this thing looks like its still running due west along 15n. We'll have to see how long that lasts.

[btangy]

Not much change in the synoptic reasoning of the GFS in the 00Z run. Still indicates a fairly sizable dent in the mid to upper level ridge caused by an upper level low just off the DelMarVa and a upper level trough (high potential vorticity tail) sneaking in clockwise around the ridge to the N. This provides enough height falls 10 degrees either side of 60W to induce a more NW-ly motion 24-72 hours out. GFS has support from the 12Z GFS ensemble and ECMWF ensemble.

[deltadog03]

One last thing....Here is the 3z steering chart. I know its current steering only, and that is suppose to change tomorrow, but here ya go!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I would interpret it as...

Takeoff times from Barbados:
18/4AM EDT - P3 & GIV Research Missions
18/4PM EDT - P3 & GIV Research Missions
19/4AM EDT - P3 & GIV Research Missions
19/4PM EDT - P3 & GIV Research Missions
20/4AM EDT - P3 & GIV Research Missions

[Derek Ortt]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 96W.INVEST,

looks like an ewrc has been ongoing and we should see a very large eye emerge

[paintplaye]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?ATCF_NAME=al032009.wrn&SENSOR=&PROD=color&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&SIZE=full&TYPE=tmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&DIR=/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc09/ATL/03L.BILL/tmi/color&CURRENT=20090818.0223.trmm.color.03L.BILL.85kts.967mb.14.8N.47.6W.60pc.jpg&YEAR=2009&MO=Aug&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=03L.BILL&STYLE=table&ACTIVES=09-WPAC-01C.MAKA,09-ATL-02L.ANA,09-ATL-03L.BILL,09-ATL-04L.CLAUDETTE,09-CPAC-10E.GUILLERMO,09-WPAC-11W.VAMCO,05-WPAC-63W.INVEST,05-WPAC-64W.INVEST,09-SHEM-90S.INVEST,09-WPAC-95W.INVEST,09-WPAC-96W.INVEST,

looks like an ewrc has been ongoing and we should see a very large eye emerge

Yea I wonder how well it will be able to support it. This eye is going to be bigger than the convection

[bzukajo]

DAME YO! Totemo!

[cheezyWXguy]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?ATCF_NAME=al032009.wrn&SENSOR=&PROD=color&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&SIZE=full&TYPE=tmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&DIR=/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc09/ATL/03L.BILL/tmi/color&CURRENT=20090818.0223.trmm.color.03L.BILL.85kts.967mb.14.8N.47.6W.60pc.jpg&YEAR=2009&MO=Aug&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=03L.BILL&STYLE=table&ACTIVES=09-WPAC-01C.MAKA,09-ATL-02L.ANA,09-ATL-03L.BILL,09-ATL-04L.CLAUDETTE,09-CPAC-10E.GUILLERMO,09-WPAC-11W.VAMCO,05-WPAC-63W.INVEST,05-WPAC-64W.INVEST,09-SHEM-90S.INVEST,09-WPAC-95W.INVEST,09-WPAC-96W.INVEST,

looks like an ewrc has been ongoing and we should see a very large eye emerge

Yea I wonder how well it will be able to support it. This eye is going to be bigger than the convection

well, as it instensifies, the core should gradually tighten, and then the ewrc will be complete. Im pretty sure the same thing happened in Katrina, though its safe to say there won't be a repeat of that. But Katrina went through an erc pretty early in her lifetime and ended up with a large but tight core that still allowed it to reach a high strength, despite its size.

[Normandy]

It actually reminds me of Ike as it was wrapping up while coming ashore. Very large system with a very sizeable eye. We might get a glimpse of what Ike would have looked like had it had another day or so over water. Its pretty amazing how long it takes these large circulations to wrap up into a very intense storm.

[SETXWXLADY]

I flew into Houston the day before Ike arrived. I experienced a hell of a storm and an eye opening aftermath. When I flew back, on approach to Providence, I took note of all the neigborhoods that were under a canopy. I could not see any houses, just small indentations in the trees. I remeber very well the six hours of sustained winds during Ike. Houston was without power for over two weeks. The trees in Houston are small compared to here....and not many of them. Here in New England, the trees dominate the landscape. If this area had sustained winds like we had in Houston during Ike, I cannot imagine how difficult the recovery would be.

If you ever get to see pictures of Rita's aftermath then you'll know how bad it will be. Well maybe not. The pictures don't begin to show how bad it really was. However, east and SE TX (deep SE TX) is one big pine forest. Probably millions of pine trees bit the dust. But the towering oaks are almost all gone from here now. It is sad. Two of those giants came crashing down in my yard. The ninety foot one went through my house crushing it. The other was bigger. The one in/on the house nearly toppled the crane that was trying to remove it. Sank the stabilizing feet of it into the ground and broke the chain. That was after the rootball and upper branches were removed. So yes we had some big ones here too. What Rita didn't killed, break, topple Ike tried his best to take down. I don't know how many hours we were under Rita's winds. I do know that all along her path everything was knocked over pointing south before her eye ever came through. And in some places the power was out for a couple of months.Rita was a nightmare that I'm glad I missed. And I hope very much that Bill does not affect any landmass. All I can say is to keep tabs on him. And if he is coming your way I don't suggest you stick around to greet him.

[RattleMan]

0600z released about an hour late keeps it at 85kt:

AL, 03, 2009081806, , BEST, 0, 153N, 490W, 85, 967, HU