New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

Tropics Guy · #21 Postby **Tropics Guy** » Sun Aug 16, 2009 10:14 pm

Models showing any development out of the next two waves coming off of Africa?

otowntiger · #22 Postby **otowntiger** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:52 am

What waves? They've gone poof!

Frank2 · #23 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:05 am

Right - who would've guessed on Friday that by Sunday we'd have 3 named systems (now down to 1), so, those are the uncertainties of life...

Frank

P.S. The positive phase is about 10 days old, so it will be leaving us soon, and it'll be interesting to see what happens after that - we might have seen the entire 2009 hurricane season compacted to 72 hours...

KWT · #24 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:22 am

Highly doubtful Frank, as Bill is showing there are areas out there where conditions are pretty favorable, its just uncertain.

As you say conditions probably aren't going to be that greatin the Atlantic once Bill passes out, but I bet you there will be something else to track by the end of August.

Frank2 · #25 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:00 am

True - I'm surprised some haven't punched me in the stomach for making that statement!

LOL

#26 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:41 am

Wow, that sure went POOF fast right as it emerged into the Atlantic...I guess Sally zapped it?

Lurker · #27 Postby **Lurker** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:45 am

We still have about 24 days to get to the climatological peak but it was nice seeing the models bend away from the US on Bill and watching Ana get torn up.

Frank2 wrote:Right - who would've guessed on Friday that by Sunday we'd have 3 named systems (now down to 1), so, those are the uncertainties of life...

Frank

P.S. The positive phase is about 10 days old, so it will be leaving us soon, and it'll be interesting to see what happens after that - we might have seen the entire 2009 hurricane season compacted to 72 hours...

DanKellFla · #28 Postby **DanKellFla** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:39 pm

Frank2 wrote:True - I'm surprised some haven't punched me in the stomach for making that statement!

LOL

I won't punch you, but how about I rub your belly and make a wish for a mild season?

Frank2 · #29 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 3:01 pm

Nah - that wouldn't work...

But it would be awesome if there wasn't a landfalling hurricane this season, anywhere in the basin - that'd be fine...

Frank

Sanibel · #30 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:22 pm

Looks like some spin to that next wave.

#31 Postby **somethingfunny** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 12:29 am

Frank2 wrote:Nah - that wouldn't work...

But it would be awesome if there wasn't a landfalling hurricane this season, anywhere in the basin - that'd be fine...

Frank

You are the new Ed Mahmoud.
:cheesy:

KWT · #32 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 4:09 am

Wave coming off Africa does look quite interesting, needs to be watched if it stays weak for a little while.

Gustywind · #33 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:23 am

Our newt guest, let's wait and see a bit with the "poof test" :cheesy:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N25W 11N33W 10N37W
14N45W 13N51W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
13W-20W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA

#34 Postby **TampaFl** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:28 am

somethingfunny wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Nah - that wouldn't work...

But it would be awesome if there wasn't a landfalling hurricane this season, anywhere in the basin - that'd be fine...

Frank

You are the new Ed Mahmoud.

Speaking of Ed, where is he? Have not seen him posting the last several days.

Robert 8-)

KWT · #35 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:48 am

Looks like this is the area that the models are at least toying with developing so will be interesting to see what happens.

Gustywind · #36 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:57 am

KWT wrote:Looks like this is the area that the models are at least toying with developing so will be interesting to see what happens.

Tkanks for the info KWT

, could you put the models for this area please?

KWT · #37 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:09 am

Have a look at the model thread. The models don't do a lot with it in general and they are no where as strong as they were with Bill but its something to watch anyway.

Gustywind · #38 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:18 am

KWT wrote:Have a look at the model thread. The models don't do a lot with it in general and they are no where as strong as they were with Bill but its something to watch anyway.

tkanks

Sanibel · #39 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:14 am

That next wave has a curved look like it is starting to curl up.

KWT · #40 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:17 am

What is interesting is the western convection actually developed over water rather then do the opposite.

I think there is at least a reasonable shot this will be our next system over the next 5-6 days or so, don't think it'll develop as quickly as Ana or Bill did but one to watch thats for sure.

New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

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