ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, the GFS had Bill coming into the Gulf late last week and part way into the weekend if memory serves, I remember it had Bill south of LA as a large TC at one point.

[Weather Watcher]

it is just me or it is becoming annular?

No, it's not even close to becoming annular. Annular hurricanes look like a doughnut, with a typically large eye surrounded by a ring of squalls (no banding). See here for some info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hu ... cteristics

Oh, and welcome to the forum!

I am always learning something new from this forum. Thanks for showing me about annular. I never knew about it.

Thanks again wxman57

Steve

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES...
1395 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 75SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 120SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.7N 50.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 55SE 40SW 65NW.
34 KT...145NE 105SE 75SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.9N 52.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.1N 55.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 145NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.7N 57.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 105SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 105SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 28.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 34.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 48.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009

BILL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE
HURRICANE IS GENERATING VERY DEEP...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME EVIDENT ASYMMETRIES. SATELLITE PICTURES ALSO REVEAL
AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY...SUGGESTIVE OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED AN ABSENCE
OF INNER CORE FEATURES...BUT A 2229 SSMIS PASS SUGGESTS THAT BILL
MAY BE FINALLY FORMING AN INNER CORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND
5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.

THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO PREVENT BILL FROM INTENSIFYING
FURTHER DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES
ON AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. PERHAPS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
FLUCTUATIONS WITHIN THE INNER CORE FOR WHICH THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO
FORECAST SKILL. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BILL
SHOULD REACH A PEAK IN INTENSITY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND AFTER
72 HOURS.

RECENT CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/15. THE
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS ALONG 50-55W IS
FORECAST TO ERODE A LARGE PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINNING AS SOON AS 24 HOURS FROM NOW. AS A
RESULT...THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT BILL HAS
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...BILL SHOULD BE STEERED
ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TRACK WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN
ENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...WITH ONLY COSMETIC
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. BILL IS FORECAST TO GROW A LITTLE MORE IN
SIZE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BECOME EVEN LARGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 48.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 50.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.9N 52.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 18.1N 55.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 19.7N 57.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 23.5N 62.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 28.5N 66.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 34.5N 68.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

Eye is not seen after it popped out for a couple of hours.

[deltadog03]

[Brent]

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that while GFS was poor with the overall synoptic pattern, it did well forecasting the formation of Bill and Ana, and also predicted Ana's dissipation.

[lonelymike]

True. But the GFS is still Good for when predicting tropical cyclones. Euro is still the king.

[CronkPSU]

cat 2 now...100 mph

[Weather Watcher]

Does anyone know where we can find the latest microwave imagery? I'm really curious to get a good look at the inner structure.

don't know if this is what you are looking for or not -

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Thats a cool look at a hurricane. Cool site

Steve

[Normandy]

That track is very close. Gonna be an interesting time for the NE US watching Bill. Assuming that Bill does not take a sharp NE curve at the end of that track, it might get close to reaching 70 W.

[RL3AO]

That track doesn't look comforting for the Northeast/Nova Scotia, or Bermuda.

[bzukajo]

I flew into Houston the day before Ike arrived. I experienced a hell of a storm and an eye opening aftermath. When I flew back, on approach to Providence, I took note of all the neigborhoods that were under a canopy. I could not see any houses, just small indentations in the trees. I remeber very well the six hours of sustained winds during Ike. Houston was without power for over two weeks. The trees in Houston are small compared to here....and not many of them. Here in New England, the trees dominate the landscape. If this area had sustained winds like we had in Houston during Ike, I cannot imagine how difficult the recovery would be.

[lonelymike]

How far north can Bill go and maintain major hurricane strength?

[Derek Ortt]

their NOAA missions, not Air Force. P3s depart from Barbados

[bucman1]

My amatuerish opinion is that once the storm gets past the gulfstream further north the water temps drop considerably and I believe the most it possibly could continue at is a cat 2 max 3.

[Derek Ortt]

The Gulfstream data is what I'm particularly interested in at this point. Will the GF data be ingested into the 12z models tommorow morning? And will the GF data ingested be enough to give us a pretty definitive track?

Also, all of the models seem to indicate at least some level of threat to Atlantic Canada and millions live there. So, even if CONUS is spared...

From Wiki:

The population of the Atlantic provinces was 2,332,535 in 2007.[1]

So Atlantic Canada is HEAVILY populated.

I believe the data is ingested into the models. However, this is not a targeted synoptic surveillance flight of the G-IV. The G-IV are flying in support of the P3

[deltadog03]

I am a little suprised it hasn't crossed 15 north yet...looks like its just scooting underneath it. pretty close to 48w now.

[Brent]

That track doesn't look comforting for the Northeast/Nova Scotia, or Bermuda.

That's what I thought. It almost looks like it's too late for a total miss for at least Canada.

[Normandy]

For the past 6 hours or so Bill has displayed a long term WNW motion. The NHC forecast path has Bill turning more northwestward starting pronto, and increasing by tomorrow. Considering the ridge position right now and its strength, I think Bill will probably pass south of the guidance tonight IMO (not by much tho, barely south). As Derek said earlier, the chances of this being a fish are very low right now and at the least MA up towards Canada needs to watch Bill closely.

Side Note:
Interestingly I am actually going to Boston Wednesday and coming back Saturday, unfortunately I will miss it if it hits.