ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[CourierPR]

Because WV shows us the uper features which are vital in the track of Bill...in many ways its far more useful then the IR for longer term stuff.

Still does seem to have jogged westwards over the last hour but I'm betting as per normal its stair stepping, 2 north 1 west sort of thing.

With a WNW track wouldn't it be more like 2 west and 1 north?

[cpdaman]

steering flow

correct me if the 500-850 mb level is not right for the steering of a strom of bill's strength (although steering flow for all the other levels is pretty much the same around bill now) when i checked

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html .........why not a turn west

[MGC]

Live by the models, die by the models.....

Far too often the models insist on bringing a TC poleward too soon, this seems to happen every season. Not saying that this will happen with Bill but it is important to keep this in mind. The list of major hurricanes that were progged to recurve by the models but didn't is long. Only time will tell where Bill goes. The way things are looking I would not be surprised if Bill is a Cat-3 sometime tomorrow.......MGC

[Normandy]

Agree with the temporary turn back west. That ridge is pretty noticeable and its hard to imagine Bill gains that much latitude between today and tomorrow morning. The flow is actually WSW ahead of Bill on the eastern flank of the ridge.

[deltadog03]

New 21z Steering map....

[Normandy]

^Good looks.
That map suggests Bill might pass within 100 miles of the Leeward Islands.

[cycloneye]

Dont like that new data at graphic.

[PTrackerLA]

That steering map would not make me feel comfortable if I were in the islands. Hard to see a WNW-NW track occuring in the near future with a map like that.

[tolakram]

Compare this to the steering map. That's why I like to use WV images.



That steering map is just for now. Everything will move east with time, at least as far as i understand. Opening up the northeast route.

[cpdaman]

that is what i have been wondering the whole day

now it's time for a pro-met to chime in and say ...forget about WSW or even W movement for next 24 hours this will be WNW for sure.....you know so that we can calm back down...por favor

[KWT]

The thing is though this will probably be using a higher level given its sheer size and deep convection, if not now then more then likely in the next 12-18hrs.

Upper high is weakening now whilst at mid levels it is strengthening so not an easy call to make, but at higher levels you can see a little weakness around 70W forming which I'm guessing what opens the track to the NW/NNW in about 48hrs.

Still a track towards the west again in the next 12-24hrs does seem possible.

[shah8]

I thought that was ominous. -uneducated speculation->I think the worst thing about this setup is that it makes for a large corner turn instead of an eroding, soft turn and buy time for a continential ridge to grow eastwards.

[caribsue]

:uarrow: Dont like that new data at graphic.

Hmmmmz.... I don't trust Bill at all... just getting way too close for comfort.

[expat2carib]

Message: Hurricane Bill, August 17, 2009, 1400 hrs EDT


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ADVISORY # 1

The Event: At 5:00pm AST, the center of Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 14.6 north, longitude 46.7 west or about 1,570 km (975 miles) east of the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane Bill was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane (Saffir Simpson scale) on Monday August 17, 2009. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Bill could become a major hurricane by Wednesday August 19, 2009.

Bill is moving toward the west-northwest at about 26 kilometres or 16 miles an hour with sustained winds of close to 150 kilometres or 90 miles per hour. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours and should bring the center near the northeast coast of the Leeward Islands by Thursday August 20, 2009.

The Situation: In response to the threat posed by Hurricane Bill to the Lesser Antilles, the local Meteorological Offices have issued Hurricane Advisories for the islands of Antigua & Barbuda, the Virgin Islands (UK) and Anguilla.

National Response:
Virgin Islands (UK)
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in the Virgin Islands (UK) has issued a Hurricane Advisory and placed its national response system on stand-by in preparation for Hurricane Bill. The island was on a Tropical Storm watch this morning in anticipation of Tropical Depression Ana but has since stood-down and reported no damage.

Anguilla
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in Anguilla has issued regular public advisories via the news media to alert persons of the approaching hurricane and is completing readiness actions.

Antigua & Barbuda
The National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) issued a Press Release this morning to warn the public on the on-coming threat of Hurricane Bill. The Minister of Health, the National Disaster Coordinator, the Director of the National Red Cross and the Chief Meteorological Officer were guests on the Television Station this morning to update the public and encourage increased preparatory actions. The national disaster response mechanism is placed on standby.

Regional Response: CDERA has been monitoring Hurricane Bill as it moves towards the region. The Coordinating Unit has established contact with the National Disaster Offices in the threatened area and will continue to provide updated information on the islands’ preparedness actions.

The Coordinating Unit has finalized arrangements for accessing emergency response personnel who will lead specialized teams (Emergency Operations Centre and Assessment Teams), if necessary.

The Coordinating Unit will continue to monitor the situation with Hurricane Bill as it moves towards Caribbean and provide advisories as necessary.

Next Advisory: 1400 hrs Tuesday August 18, 2009

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Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386

[storms NC]

Derek, was feeling good this am because recurve so far east that there were no concerns here. In fact the local weather casters said so. Still looks like we're sefe. But surf could be higher than expected.
Are we out of the woods?

I don't think any weather news casters should tell everyone it is not going to come their way till it is in stone. To many things can happen. Just my 2 cents

[Normandy]

You shouldn't look at that graphic and assume that it means a hit for the islands. It simply means that the ridge is very strong and for the next 24 hours or so, a more westward heading is likely. That alone will take it closer to the islands before the next weakness occurs.

[cpdaman]

also almost looks like he's slowing down a tad in last two frames.....just speculation

[KWT]

Probably in response to reaching the edge of the weakness I suspect, as it goes from one steering system to another, that other being the upper high.

[Evil Jeremy]

It will be interesting to see how his speed changes in response to switching steering systems. This is a strong ridge, and we have seen ridges underestimated and troughs overestimated before. Things change, and these next 24 hours will be interesting to see how Bill's track can change.

[shah8]

It....just....might...tag the 15N50W line. Gotta go straight west though.