ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

NHC track seems reasonable but the models are still shifting about, really the NHC is a good middle ground to what the models are suggesting.

Also Bill looks like a huge WPAC system again, watch this one blow up tonight and tomorrow, major hurricane this time tomorrow for sure!

[deltadog03]

18z globals should be running pretty soon.

[Derek Ortt]

a reminder... storms that hit Canada are NOT FISH

Derek, I think when people say "fish" what they mean is a "fish" to the USA.....That's how I take it anyway...

then they could at least use a word that makes sense in either the English or Spanish languages. A fish lives in the water, not in downtown Halifax. Maybe miss would be a better word to describe those storms, but definitely not fish

[KWT]

Totally agree Derek, this one could hit that region very hard, certainly could hit still as a hurricane so we have to be aware.

As for Bermuda, whilst this could be very powerful that island is built for such beasts, I think they have lost only 4 lives since 1926 and that was from a direct hit with hurricane Fabian, which was also a bit of a monster...

[Erick Atencio-Harris]

it is just me or it is becoming annular?

[cycloneye]

The squadron is gearing up to go to Bill starting tommorow.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 19/1800Z
AND 20/0600Z ON HURRICANE BILL.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL BEGIN FLYING 5 RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN A ROW ON HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0800Z WITH THE P-3
AND G-IV. TAKEOFFS WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Blown Away]

What does the W turn of some models indicate? Stall? Trough leaving Bill behind?

[KWT]

Looks like they are seeing this as a good chance to get into Bill Cycloneye, as they may not get a better chance!

Classic big chunky hurricane, also classic evolution you see in the WPAC...granted this one is in the Atlantic!
Reminds me somewhat of Karl 2004.

[cycloneye]

they may not get a better chance!

What do you mean about recon not getting a better chance?

[artist]

ok, I found this on the 2 models showing the back west bend - the NGXI is the nogaps interpolated to 06 hrs, the cgun is Corrected GUNA Consensus Guidance which is AVNI+GHMI+EGRI/2+NGPI

Anyone want to explain more for us?

[ConvergenceZone]

a reminder... storms that hit Canada are NOT FISH

Derek, I think when people say "fish" what they mean is a "fish" to the USA.....That's how I take it anyway...

then they could at least use a word that makes sense in either the English or Spanish languages. A fish lives in the water, not in downtown Halifax. Maybe miss would be a better word to describe those storms, but definitely not fish

I think people just say that for simplicity sake....to make it less complicated (just my opinion)
but I do understand where you are coming from.

[Meso]

The 18z GFS is rolling in and it's looking a touch right of the 12z thus far, and in regards to the trough, it's showing a weaker trough though it seems to be digging slightly further down that the previous run. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run unfolds

[drezee]

Someone stated earlier that Bill was not missing the forecast points at all...not by much...but it is moving faster than predicted 24 hours ago

5pm from yesterday:
24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.2N 45.0W 75 KT
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 46.0W

[artist]

BUT the yellos may actually be the TCCN which is Corrected TCON Consensus Guidance of the which is the
Consensus Track Guidance (AVNI/2+EGRI/2+NGPI/2+GHMI/2+HWRI/2

ok, are we now reallly confused?

[Derek Ortt]

Totally agree Derek, this one could hit that region very hard, certainly could hit still as a hurricane so we have to be aware.

As for Bermuda, whilst this could be very powerful that island is built for such beasts, I think they have lost only 4 lives since 1926 and that was from a direct hit with hurricane Fabian, which was also a bit of a monster...

so is Cayman. They took a direct it with Ivan which was similar to what GFDL/HWRF are showing will be the intensity near Bermuda. it was devastated

[attallaman]

What are the SST's along the upper east coast? Warm enough to fuel Bill if the system does head that way?

[thetruesms]

I think people just say that for simplicity sake....to make it less complicated (just my opinion)
but I do understand where you are coming from.

There's a certain danger in simplifying to the point of being wrong, which is what happens when using something like "fish" to describe their particular area as being out of danger. Somebody reading the thread should not have to glance at someone's location to see what they mean by fish.

And since parts of Quebec can be affected, it may have to make sense in French, too!

[Derek Ortt]

the 72 hour position is very near the 78 hour position of the previous

[drezee]

The 18z GFS is rolling in and it's looking a touch right of the 12z thus far, and in regards to the trough, it's showing a weaker trough though it seems to be digging slightly further down that the previous run. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run unfolds

stronger Ridge

[David in FL]

Hello guys and gals. I was just wondering on what the chances are of Bill suddenly taking a more west track and hitting north florida or the carolinas. I am new to this stuff and was just wondering if these things ever do that? Thanks and loving the site.