ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[The Eye Wall]

Keep in mind folks that Bill is on the verge of being absolutely huge in size and fetch. The official pressure as of 5pm is 969 mb--a "typical" category 3 hurricane. An example of this is Hurricane Alicia in 1983 with a pressure of 962 mb. But the scope of Bill again is absolutely huge. It'll take a lot lower pressure for winds to corrispond to category 3 and 4. The MSLP gradient isn't going to be nearly as steep as with other notable hurricanes of similar pressure readings, i.e, Alicia (a small cane). Bill will very much be like Ike and have a pressure of 952 mb and winds only about 100 to 110 mph.

For us Houstonians on this board, it takes a lot longer to go around the beltway than it does the 610 loop. See what I mean?

[thetruesms]

Too bad we're losing the visible just as Bill's starting to build a nice, strong inner core

[ConvergenceZone]

regardless if it misses the usa or not, , it should stir up some good sized waves along the east coast.

[Brent]

[thetruesms]

Keep in mind folks that Bill is on the verge of being absolutely huge in size and fetch. The official pressure as of 5pm is 969 mb--a "typical" category 3 hurricane. An example of this is Hurricane Alicia in 1983 with a pressure of 962 mb. But the scope of Bill again is absolutely huge. It'll take a lot lower pressure for winds to corrispond to category 3 and 4. The MSLP gradient isn't going to be nearly as steep as with other notable hurricanes of similar pressure readings, i.e, Alicia (a small cane). Bill will very much be like Ike and have a pressure of 952 mb and winds only about 100 to 110 mph.

For us Houstonians on this board, it takes a lot longer to go around the beltway than it does the 610 loop. See what I mean?

truth. It is about time for that annual ''It's not the pressure, but the pressure gradient" lesson

[artist]

hmmmmm

Hmmmm indeed.

I'm waiting for some more runs before I get too worked up.

You do know that the straight purple line bringing him right into the FL Straights is just the extrapolated line, right? There's no model suggesting that path.

nope, looking at the 2 models labelled the NGXI and the CGUN there.

[Gustywind]

Call it big baby or Big Bill is an euphemisma...





But we have fish games for you BILL as all the Carib is looking at you including our US friends... go fishing guy:spam:

[CourierPR]

Hey, maybe the models will start trending back to the left. Wouldn't that be scary?

[The Eye Wall]

Does anybody else think Bill is the identical twin to Wilma? I'm thinking Bill will have one of those 5 nautical mile wide eyes!

Wilma (from wikipedia)



Bill:

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm just happy we have a nice sized storm to track and feeling better that at least it SHOULD recurve...Hopefully it will miss bermuda as well...

[Derek Ortt]

a reminder... storms that hit Canada are NOT FISH

[cycloneye]

Also lets not forget the beautiful island of Bermuda.

[Blown Away]

I guess the NHC didn't see the W shift of some of the models during the 12z as a big deal, because they only made a slight W shift of their track.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[cpdaman]

as bill passes the longitutde of the weakness in the central atlantic ridge around 40-50West.......without too much pull NW....why would he not start turning back more west on tuesday as he passes that weakness ....even wednesday as well...leaving a threat to the northern most leeward's (antigua...barbuda...etc) ...until the effects of the EC trough curve him up.

what am i missing

[deltadog03]

I said hmmm...cuz, the models had shifted west today on the 12z runs. Dosn't mean that they can't go back right either.

[HouTXmetro]

Are those two models which Turn Bill West credible? That would be a scary scenario for the East coast if that played out.

[ConvergenceZone]

a reminder... storms that hit Canada are NOT FISH

Derek, I think when people say "fish" what they mean is a "fish" to the USA.....That's how I take it anyway...

[The Eye Wall]

I guess the NHC didn't see the W shift of some of the models during the 12z as a big deal, because they only made a slight W shift of their track.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/gr ... p_5W.shtml

As we've seen time and time again, the NHC is not going to make huge corrections to the cone. It shows the public irresponsibility and may call into question practices by the center itself. The storm is days and days away from the Carolina's, if indeed Bill is headed there. There is more than enough time for correction. If you remember Hurricane Ike's cone last year, it looked like a windshield wipper. That's something should be avoided.

I'll also say that there are a number of mets even on here who, while not out of the realm of possibility, strongly feel, i assume, that if Bill bypasses the weakness, the trough on the E. CONUS is the backup that will shove Bill north.

[KWT]

Models shifting westwards somewhat, looks like a NE US/Canada threat if you ask me depending a lot on the exact orientation of the trough...

Plus Bermuda has to be a big risk as well...

[artist]

when do the models run again?
and thanks deltadog03!