ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

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Evil Jeremy
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#1801 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:58 pm

Big shift to the west on the new HWRF. Its interesting how the models are shifting west right now.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1802 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:03 pm

12z HWRF=Shifts west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Image
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#1803 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:04 pm

Just proves it is never over until it is over. I'll be keeping a close eye on Bill, that is for sure.
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#1804 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:06 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Just proves it is never over until it is over. I'll be keeping a close eye on Bill, that is for sure.

you and me both should keep an eye on Bill
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1805 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:07 pm

Can somebody post a graphic showing a comparison between the 06z and 12z models?
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1806 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:08 pm

MW,here is the 12z UKMET text.

HURRICANE BILL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 44.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2009 13.8N 44.8W MODERATE
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.2N 47.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.08.2009 15.1N 50.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 52.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2009 17.4N 55.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2009 18.5N 58.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 19.7N 60.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2009 21.2N 63.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 23.2N 66.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2009 25.4N 68.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2009 28.2N 69.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2009 31.3N 69.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.08.2009 34.6N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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#1807 Postby shah8 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:11 pm

UKMET better not verify.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1808 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:11 pm

Blown_away wrote:Can somebody post a graphic showing a comparison between the 06z and 12z models?


06z HWRF

Image

12z HWRF

Image
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1809 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:12 pm

not going to take our eyes off it yet here in central Florida either...though I think our chances are still very low of getting an impact from Bill
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1810 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:13 pm

HWRF would send the media into a hysterical frenzy...

I think if this goes way west of Bermuda it's going to at least come dangerously close.

Not convinced though, need more runs to see if it's a trend. Definitely a lot more uncertainty today however.
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#1811 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:14 pm

Some really big shifts West today with the 12z runs. Will it continue?
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1812 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:14 pm

Is this an accurate display of the UKMET model?

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... ne&C2=pmsl
Last edited by tolakram on Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1813 Postby caneseddy » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Can somebody post a graphic showing a comparison between the 06z and 12z models?


06z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... /slp21.png

12z

Image


6z had it about 33.5 latitude and 66.00 longitude
12z has it at 30 degrees latitude and 70.5 longitude

Bit of a shift west

Let's see what the Euro has since that is the one that nailed the recurve at the beginning
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1814 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:MW,here is the 12z UKMET text.

HURRICANE BILL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 44.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2009 13.8N 44.8W MODERATE
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.2N 47.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.08.2009 15.1N 50.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 52.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2009 17.4N 55.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2009 18.5N 58.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 19.7N 60.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2009 21.2N 63.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 23.2N 66.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2009 25.4N 68.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2009 28.2N 69.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2009 31.3N 69.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.08.2009 34.6N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


Wow...the model agreement is getting tight and the trend is to leave more ridge in place for longer. Plus, Bill looks to be moving pretty quickly and is south of where the 0Z UKMET had it yesterday. I wouldn't take my eye off it yet if I were you!

On the phone with Mark now. We are very interested to see if the 12Z Euro has Bill near 30/70 like the other models.

MW
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#1815 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:15 pm

That run of the HWRF would cut it VERY close to the U.S. NE
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1816 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:MW,here is the 12z UKMET text.

HURRICANE BILL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 44.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2009 13.8N 44.8W MODERATE
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.2N 47.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.08.2009 15.1N 50.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 52.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2009 17.4N 55.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2009 18.5N 58.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 19.7N 60.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2009 21.2N 63.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 23.2N 66.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2009 25.4N 68.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2009 28.2N 69.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2009 31.3N 69.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.08.2009 34.6N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


The Ukmet shifts east? Am I reading this correctly?

I guess I did! :darrow:
Last edited by Blown Away on Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#1817 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:16 pm

UKMET shifted east. Models seem to be converging on this making about 70W
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1818 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:17 pm

MWatkins wrote:
cycloneye wrote:MW,here is the 12z UKMET text.

HURRICANE BILL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 44.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2009 13.8N 44.8W MODERATE
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.2N 47.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.08.2009 15.1N 50.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 52.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2009 17.4N 55.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2009 18.5N 58.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 19.7N 60.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2009 21.2N 63.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 23.2N 66.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2009 25.4N 68.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2009 28.2N 69.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2009 31.3N 69.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.08.2009 34.6N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


Wow...the model agreement is getting tight and the trend is to leave more ridge in place for longer. Plus, Bill looks to be moving pretty quickly and is south of where the 0Z UKMET had it yesterday. I wouldn't take my eye off it yet if I were you!

On the phone with Mark now. We are very interested to see if the 12Z Euro has Bill near 30/70 like the other models.

MW



will be calling you guys shortlt... huge shift in the gfdl and hwrf... getting interesting now...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#1819 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:17 pm

Some early info is that the 12z euro is further west through hour 96.
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Re:

#1820 Postby caneseddy » Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:21 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:UKMET shifted east. Models seem to be converging on this making about 70W


I believe earlier run had it about 60 degrees before making the recurve and njow 70 degrees; gonna be very close for New England and Canada

Funny is that the UKMET was the furthest south and west of making the recurve and it seems to be verifying slightly so far
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