Will it miss the leeward islands?

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cycloneye
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Will it miss the leeward islands?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2003 6:27 am

It is moving WNW now but as we know that tracks of tropical systems varies with some wobbles and about this system if it wobbles a little to the left it well may make landfall in the norhern leewards meaning Antigua,Barbuda,St Martin but hopefully it misses all the islands..
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2003 7:46 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

12.5n-46.9w the SSD puts the position in their latest dvorak update so it has to climb much more in latitud to then miss all the islands..
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#3 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 02, 2003 7:52 am

Don't think it will miss them. The high is anchored over Bermuda for the next several days and the flow is east to west. I think it is feeling out the ridge and seeing how far north it (the ridge) will let it go. The northern islands, PR, VI really need to watch this.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2003 8:30 am

The models are iniciating the 12:00 UTC run at 12.6n-46.9w so that area SW of the convection is where we have to look.
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#5 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Aug 02, 2003 10:26 am

WREL model maps show it going Just N. http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
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