ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Blown Away]

I don't know what the Ukmet sees sending Bill west, it has Bill as a strong hurricane just like the other models!

Ukmet:
TROPICAL STORM BILL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 40.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.08.2009 13.2N 40.3W MODERATE
12UTC 17.08.2009 14.5N 44.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.8N 48.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.8N 51.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 15.2N 54.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 57.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2009 16.9N 59.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 18.2N 62.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2009 19.3N 64.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 20.9N 67.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.08.2009 22.8N 69.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2009 24.9N 71.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2009 26.8N 73.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

[KWT]

The UKMO cam sometimes be very poor with forecasting the strength of weakness in highs, I've seen xountless times where the models has under done it, thats probably is why the UKMO has it still moving westwards.

[Normandy]

It would be absolutely hilarious if all the models shifted back in accordance with the UKMET. Not saying it'll happen but it would be ironic.

[Emmett_Brown]

Per the 5am advisory, Bill continued accelerating last night, and is moving rapidly WNW at 22 mph. I don't think the models had Bill moving this fast, so interested to see if Bill keeps up this pace today, and if so, will adjustments to the W be needed to correct for short term motion.

[KWT]

It would quite impressive if the UKMO was right but its been to the south every single run cycle. Still the ECM has done very well so no reason to think it won't be right this time round.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track=85 kts

Moving 285 degrees at 14kts.

AL, 03, 2009081712, , BEST, 0, 139N, 446W, 85, 977, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Bam Models

WHXX01 KWBC 171245
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC MON AUG 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090817 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090817 1200 090818 0000 090818 1200 090819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 44.6W 15.0N 47.5W 15.9N 50.3W 16.9N 52.8W
BAMD 13.9N 44.6W 14.8N 47.4W 15.7N 49.9W 16.7N 52.2W
BAMM 13.9N 44.6W 15.0N 47.5W 16.0N 50.2W 17.1N 52.5W
LBAR 13.9N 44.6W 14.8N 47.4W 15.6N 50.3W 16.3N 53.1W
SHIP 85KTS 96KTS 102KTS 107KTS
DSHP 85KTS 96KTS 102KTS 107KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090819 1200 090820 1200 090821 1200 090822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 55.2W 21.6N 60.0W 26.0N 64.2W 31.0N 64.1W
BAMD 17.7N 54.5W 20.6N 59.1W 24.3N 63.1W 28.8N 65.0W
BAMM 18.3N 54.9W 21.4N 59.5W 25.8N 63.3W 30.7N 63.1W
LBAR 17.0N 55.9W 19.5N 61.3W 24.0N 64.9W 34.8N 62.2W
SHIP 110KTS 113KTS 108KTS 99KTS
DSHP 110KTS 113KTS 108KTS 99KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 41.3W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 105NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 125NM

[KWT]

So now Bill is a category-2, not all that shocking though its been upgraded maybe a little faster then I thought it would be.

Still looking very grand and still just about below 14N.

[BatzVI]

According to those numbers, cyclone...it only moved .1 north and .6 west.....that worries me a little.....hopefully we'll see a bit more of northerly track soon.....

[KWT]

285 degrees overall it looks, pretty much what the models are expecting it to be moving at this stage in the game so nothing to be worried aobut so far, if it holds that heading for another 24hrs then things change but long way to go.

Biggest threat still be far has to be for Bermuda...

[Emmett_Brown]

The 15N 50W benchmark that Luis mentioned a few days ago is coming up, interesting to see if Bill slides under it later tonight and tomorrow morning...

[KWT]

Looks like it will go over that benchmark at the moment Emmett but wobbles will be important to watch at this stage to see if it does go under that benchmark. Most models get this north of 15N at that time as well bar the UKMO.

[cycloneye]

Looking from Puerto Rico,I forget the models and better look in real time how is Bill tracking.That 15N-50W is crucial in terms of the islands getting more effects from it even if it bypasses the NE Caribbean,because the system overall is a big one.

[caribepr]

Looking from Puerto Rico,I forget the models and better look in real time how is Bill tracking.That 15N-50W is crucial in terms of the islands getting more effects from it even if it bypasses the NE Caribbean,because the system overall is a big one.

Exactly, Luis. The whole time we were being blasted by Ana (Vieques is getting that little tail end effect right now, slammed), the reports were...oh, it's south of St. Croix. Well, yeah, but it was here too. sort of like that thing on car mirrors...the storm is bigger than it looks on the screen (and the islands are smaller).

[Gustywind]

Here is the BIG BILL...maybe stronger than BIG BEN in UK



The system overall is a big vs the islands...

[deltadog03]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

A great shot of what is going on with the WV in the ATL. Its a pretty big file, it does take a second...

[eastcoastFL]

I am not sold on the total recurve yet. At least untill I see Bill start to move more to the north.

[KWT]

Very impressive looking hurricane, the northern quadrant isn't all that impressive mind you but apart from that looks like a textbook hurricane, and certainly does look like a category-2 as well, center looks like its around 14-14.1N right now.

[BigB0882]

Those models are very tightly clustered!

[sandyb]

how reliable is the ukmet?