From FSU mm5 based on GFS/GFDL blend for initialization...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/

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Smurfwicked wrote:Is it the fact the easterlies are that strong and Ana is so small her forward speed is so high? Just wondering cause it seems that this is one of the factors cause her demise. Or maybe its just that lack of structure & convection is causing an increase in the forward speed?
Results for Dominica (15.53N, 61.3W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.6N, 61.3W or about 2.6 miles (4.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 9.3 hours (Monday, August 17 at 2:18AM AST).
AT 800 PM...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR
Smurfwicked wrote:Is it the fact the easterlies are that strong and Ana is so small her forward speed is so high? Just wondering cause it seems that this is one of the factors cause her demise. Or maybe its just that lack of structure & convection is causing an increase in the forward speed?
expat2carib wrote:Results for Dominica (15.53N, 61.3W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.6N, 61.3W or about 2.6 miles (4.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 9.3 hours (Monday, August 17 at 2:18AM AST).
2.6 miles
Using the stormcarib[url]http:www.stormcarib.com[/url] 'Closest point of approach' tool.
From the 800 PMAT 800 PM...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
From the 800 PMAT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA.
From the 800 PMTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR
Can anybody explain me?
expat2carib wrote:Results for Dominica (15.53N, 61.3W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.6N, 61.3W or about 2.6 miles (4.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 9.3 hours (Monday, August 17 at 2:18AM AST).
2.6 miles
Using the stormcarib[url]http:www.stormcarib.com[/url] 'Closest point of approach' tool.
From the 800 PMAT 800 PM...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
From the 800 PMAT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA.
From the 800 PMTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR
Can anybody explain me?
rrm wrote:any chances of her reforming?
artist wrote:expat2carib wrote:Results for Dominica (15.53N, 61.3W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.6N, 61.3W or about 2.6 miles (4.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 9.3 hours (Monday, August 17 at 2:18AM AST).
2.6 miles
Using the stormcarib[url]http:www.stormcarib.com[/url] 'Closest point of approach' tool.
From the 800 PMAT 800 PM...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
From the 800 PMAT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA.
From the 800 PMTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR
Can anybody explain me?
something must have been entered wrong into the formula as to the speed of Ana. It should be there in about 3 and a half hours, from what I have figured.
expat2carib wrote:Thanks. That explains it. So it will not develop until it has passed Dominica I guess.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
News flash-- Bill hasn't recurved yet!gatorcane wrote:[img]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/img]
I am not expecting Ana to regenerate at this time. As far as I am concerned advisories should be discontinued. Actually I would not have even made this into a tropical storm to begin with as I did forecast it to degenerate anyway. Main reason is dry air, also its just not that organized, likely headed into some large landmass in a few days as well...and its moving to fast. No threat to the CONUS either. With Bill recurving now far away from the Eastern seaboard of the US, I see no threats to the CONUS for the next week at least.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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