ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[jinftl]

The fact that there has been no drop in pressure....which is a very high 1008mb.....is the sanity check needed otherwise this extra time over water could have been aproblem. My guess is that if Claudette had formed a day earlier, she would have strengthened to a hurricane to the south of her current position, and maintained herself upon approach to the coast. Her proximity to land now is helping to squeeze off some of her ability to grab fuel from the water....a chunk of her inflow channels are over land now.

Dr. Forbes on TWC just said she is moving a bit more north now and that could bring her onshore a bit sooner than forecast. He says only 30-40 miles south of Panama City.

I can not believe that this storm isn't inland yet. It was being called for an early afternoon landfall and here we are 6-7 hours later watching her do her thing. I hope there aren't any more surprises for those of you in the path.

Vacane: Please keep us updated on Jesse as you get the opportunity (and tell him to be careful LOL.)

Lynn

[brunota2003]

I can not believe that this storm isn't inland yet. It was being called for an early afternoon landfall and here we are 6-7 hours later watching her do her thing. I hope there aren't any more surprises for those of you in the path.

Vacane: Please keep us updated on Jesse as you get the opportunity (and tell him to be careful LOL.)

Lynn

Vacane is Jesse Aric Dunn is the one who is out and about...but yes definitely, please keep us updated!

[vacanechaser]

I can not believe that this storm isn't inland yet. It was being called for an early afternoon landfall and here we are 6-7 hours later watching her do her thing. I hope there aren't any more surprises for those of you in the path.

Vacane: Please keep us updated on Jesse as you get the opportunity (and tell him to be careful LOL.)

Lynn

will do and it is aric thats out there... i am jesse.. lol..

it was not forecast from what i remember to be inland this afternoon... except by a few here... the offical forecast had it inland near 8pm... but it went further west than forecast so it is taking longer..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like it is trying to wrap convection on radar, if this keeps jogging off to the WNW at times it could stay over the water a bit longer. Winds are beginning to pick up here in Miramar Bch. just east of Destin.

[Rainband]

looks like a mess to me. Good thing it could have been worse.

[jinftl]

Agree with observation Dr. Forbest made on TWC...appears to be making more of a north or nnw move now....she is running out of water thankfully.

Looking at a longer loop, movement seems to be continuing NW at a constant speed with the center convection scattered around.

[Rainband]

yeah but it was never organized typical lopsided eastern gom flop

[brunota2003]

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Looking at the latest radar data from the NWS, out of Tallahassee, FL...I predict she will make landfall east of Pensacola, west of Panama City, and SSE (just barely, almost due south) of De Funiak Springs, FL...Landfall time should be right around 10:30 or 11 pm EDT. The strongest band surrounding the LLCC should start impacting Panama City in about 90 minutes.

All of this is a guesstimate I made using my own (horrible) eyesight.

[jeff]

yeah but it was never organized typical lopsided eastern gom flop

I have seen much worse looking classified. Looks like a TS to me...small but a TS nonetheless.

[jinftl]

Current Wind Reports - no ts winds being reported at major weather stations below
(as of 8pm edt)
PENSACOLA CALM
PENSACOLA NAS NE7
MILTON NAS CALM
CRESTVIEW E10G17
VALPARAISO E9
MARY ESTHER NE7G21
DESTIN E9G18
PANAMA CITY E15G23
TYNDALL AFB E23G31
APALACHICOLA SE20G35
MARIANNA SE9G20
TALLAHASSEE E9

[artist]

Current Wind Reports - no ts winds being reported at major weather stations below
(as of 8pm edt)
PENSACOLA CALM
PENSACOLA NAS NE7
MILTON NAS CALM
CRESTVIEW E10G17
VALPARAISO E9
MARY ESTHER NE7G21
DESTIN E9G18
PANAMA CITY E15G23
TYNDALL AFB E23G31
APALACHICOLA SE20G35
MARIANNA SE9G20
TALLAHASSEE E9

and I wouldn't expect it to be higher as the center hasn't made landfall yet.

[MGC]

Good, on the move again. Looks like landfall in a couple of hours near the Grayton Beach to Laguna Beach area. Sure do wish I was in Panama City Beach right now. Nice little convective burst. Lets get her ashore ASAP......MGC

[tolakram]

Tyndall AFB




- Mark

[jinftl]

True....but i would expect that only immediate coastal locations may experiene sustained ts winds...most areas will see periodic gusts to weak ts force in heavier squalls. Jim Cantore reporting live at 8pm....assesed it as a breezy to windy night ahead with rain being the main story...didn't expect widespread power outages

Current Wind Reports - no ts winds being reported at major weather stations below
(as of 8pm edt)
PENSACOLA CALM
PENSACOLA NAS NE7
MILTON NAS CALM
CRESTVIEW E10G17
VALPARAISO E9
MARY ESTHER NE7G21
DESTIN E9G18
PANAMA CITY E15G23
TYNDALL AFB E23G31
APALACHICOLA SE20G35
MARIANNA SE9G20
TALLAHASSEE E9

and I wouldn't expect it to be higher as the center hasn't made landfall yet.

[jeff]

True....but i would expect that only immediate coastal locations may experiene sustained ts winds...most areas will see periodic gusts to weak ts force in heavier squalls. Jim Cantore reporting live at 8pm....assesed it as a breezy to windy night ahead with rain being the main story...didn't expect widespread power outages

Current Wind Reports - no ts winds being reported at major weather stations below
(as of 8pm edt)
PENSACOLA CALM
PENSACOLA NAS NE7
MILTON NAS CALM
CRESTVIEW E10G17
VALPARAISO E9
MARY ESTHER NE7G21
DESTIN E9G18
PANAMA CITY E15G23
TYNDALL AFB E23G31
APALACHICOLA SE20G35
MARIANNA SE9G20
TALLAHASSEE E9

and I wouldn't expect it to be higher as the center hasn't made landfall yet.

Sustained TS winds will be found in the deep banding on the SE side of the center and ont he squalls SE of that. Sustained 40-45mph in this small area and away from the convection winds will be 15-20mph. Very typical of a small weak TS...strongest winds above the surface being brought down in the areas of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

hey all.. just giving a update from road ready to enter back into the strong band on the NE side,, my coordiantes are 30.15N 85.58W

i am heading to panama city for landfall.. i plan to set up on the beach for the the strong band then follow it as long as possible,,

I have already experienced gusts over 50 with sustained winds of TS force most at the Indian pass up by Apalachicola. I will probably see the same here maybe a little higher since earlier i missed the strongest part..

[crazycajuncane]

I called my boss earlier. He is on vacation in Destin.

He is the type that doesn't care for the beach and was forced to go with his wife lol.

I called him earlier he didn't even know there was a Tropical Storm. He was very excited to know he can spend more time in the condo hahaha!

[Rainband]

yeah but it was never organized typical lopsided eastern gom flop

I have seen much worse looking classified. Looks like a TS to me...small but a TS nonetheless.

ok
ok

[tolakram]

Loop of Humberto landfall.

http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mc ... 3Sep07.gif

credit: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mc ... ics/radar/

Current radar of Claudette. Thankfully it probably won't make hurricane strength but boy it appears like it's trying.

[The Eye Wall]

To me, looks like landfall is going to be at Ft. Walton Beach. But that's just me. Dry air off the continent and proximity will govern this system all the way to landfall.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes