ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[jinftl]

you think? Gone from unclassified to td to ts to now a strong ts in about 30 hours...that's not too shabby!
not to mention how he looks.....symmetrical and unsheared

This is taking forever to ramp up.

[cycloneye]

Lets watch the data at this bouy in the Central Atlantic at 14.5N-46W.

Bouy 41041

[shah8]

GFS has Bill burning rubber! It's mostly really west and then almost a U-turn into the weakness.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just a small adjustment to the south but so far Bill has if anything been trending to the right of the forecast path and models today and this may well continue even though the models are slightly shifting south with it.

I think this is a huge risk to Bermuda, they got a big hit with Fabian and if this places itself correctly this could be as big if not even bigger...

The only reason its gone to the north of the points is because the NHC was too far south in the position this morning. A CDO never really consolidated until later this morning, and up to that point it was harder to locate the exact center. Its true its heading wnw now, but the heading isnt far off of the nhc forecast, its just located a little north because of a slightly too far south center fix. We'll have to see what this does in the future, but UKmet and NOGAPS, along with the other ones trending south may be seeing something. It may never verify, but they can't be discounted because if this ever was to turn more westward, it could become a big problem for the eastern seaboard.

[shah8]

Also, Bill is unresponsive to the break in the ridge in the 18z, the gfs is essentially saying that the euro was right all along and an east coast trough pick Bill up with authoriteh.

[hurricanetrack]

I do not want to steal the thunder from my colleague Mike Watkins but he and I talked and the Euro and GFS seem to get rid of Bill for entirely different reasons.

I hope Mike sees this and posts about it himself. He had a great breakdown of it on the phone this afternoon with Jesse and me.

[alan1961]

starting to look really good on the images being posted.

I know its a long long way out but is their a chance of the uk getting the remnants / tail end of bill?

Every chance of the remnants cookie just in time for the bank holiday weekend get him on the jetstream off newfoundland and he'll be just another nail in our piss poor summer!

[Rainband]

looks like a fish maybe bremuda. Good News

[jinftl]

except for bermuda...lol

(and possibly the canadian maritimes)

looks like a fish maybe bremuda. Good News

[Rainband]

except for bermuda...lol

(and possibly the canadian maritimes)

looks like a fish maybe bremuda. Good News

sorry I meant for the US and the islands

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Winds mantained at 55kts.

AL, 03, 2009081700, , BEST, 0, 132N, 408W, 55, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Bam Models

Moving WNW at 17kts.

276
WHXX01 KWBC 170047
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC MON AUG 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090817 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090817 0000 090817 1200 090818 0000 090818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 40.8W 14.2N 44.1W 14.9N 47.3W 15.3N 50.2W
BAMD 13.2N 40.8W 14.3N 43.7W 15.4N 46.5W 16.4N 49.1W
BAMM 13.2N 40.8W 14.3N 43.9W 15.3N 46.9W 16.2N 49.6W
LBAR 13.2N 40.8W 14.3N 44.1W 15.2N 47.5W 15.8N 50.9W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 75KTS 85KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 75KTS 85KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090819 0000 090820 0000 090821 0000 090822 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 52.5W 19.0N 55.7W 25.0N 59.6W 30.5N 63.9W
BAMD 17.6N 51.4W 20.7N 55.9W 25.1N 59.3W 31.2N 61.5W
BAMM 17.1N 52.0W 19.9N 56.3W 24.1N 59.9W 29.5N 62.6W
LBAR 16.5N 54.2W 18.3N 59.7W 24.7N 61.5W 30.5N 63.4W
SHIP 94KTS 106KTS 105KTS 100KTS
DSHP 94KTS 106KTS 105KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 40.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 37.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 35.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM

[MGC]

Based on IR satellite, I'd conjecture that Bill is approaching hurricane intensity. Still think Bill will be a major hurricane......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

EURO on the board first this season? Jeez, I remember reading posts on here about that mean ol bad EURO...If this turns out to be right, EURO 1, et al 0

for the 200 trillionth time

GETTING SOMETHING RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON IS NOT GETTING SOMETHING RIGHT

Had the ECMWF have been in the clas I TAed last Fall, it would received 1/4 credit. Right answer, AWFUL approach to get there

[Nimbus]

All the models have Bill tracking along a steady recurve of varying degree. I pictured that there might be some ridging building in prior to the east coast trough arriving to save the day? That is the usual pattern the trough breaking down the ridge.

[Macrocane]

Bill managed very well the dry air and it added moisture to its environment, it looks really good and I agree that it has the possibility to become a major, if it becomes a fish hurricane I will be very happy to have something to track without threatening any land masses, hopefully Bermuda will avoid Bill.

[DESTRUCTION5]

EURO on the board first this season? Jeez, I remember reading posts on here about that mean ol bad EURO...If this turns out to be right, EURO 1, et al 0

for the 200 trillionth time

GETTING SOMETHING RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON IS NOT GETTING SOMETHING RIGHT

Had the ECMWF have been in the clas I TAed last Fall, it would received 1/4 credit. Right answer, AWFUL approach to get there

Tell us how you really feel...

[bucman1]

Is there any chance that the Trough won't be as strong and the ridginging will build back in forcing Bill back west or west north west?

[MWatkins]

I'm putting this in my blog tonight, but here's a preview.

Essentially, the 12z and 18Z GFS drop a mid level weakness into the heart of the 588 ridge at roughly 30N and 60W at t+72.

This weakness acts as a magnet to draw Bill up out of the MDR so that when the east coast ridge does break down, Bill is already far enough north to get scooped up.

However, I don't see the same solution from 12/18z NOGAPS. It shows the little hole there at 30/60 but it isn't nearly as strong as the GFS solution.

The euro just wipes out the east coast ridge and grabs Bill, which may be more likely. But the GFS (and dependent models like HWRF and GFDL) and Euro don't agree, it's two totally different solutions with the same answer. Both could be wrong, which would explain why the 12z NOGAPS and UKMET models get further west with Bill before the turn starts.

I don't see that mid/upper low on the map and until I do, I can't totally buy the GFS (and the GFS background models) solutions. To me it's the UKMET vs. Euro right now.

MW

[Tropics Guy]

Bill's convection wrapping up nicely, IMO should reach hurricane status tomorrow.............

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

TG