ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[jinftl]

There is something of a lesser probability 2nd arm of probability beginning around puerto rico, traveling north of hispanola, and towards the bahamas. It will be interesting to see if this 'arm' increases or decreases in probability over time..increasing could possibly indicate something of shift west in (some) model trend, while decreasing would mean the opposite. If all the models continue to show consensus, the graphic will show it.

Seems like the highest confidence path is one that takes it rather close to Bermuda based on those ensembles. Still we will just have to wait and see.

12z GFS coming out now by the way.

[btangy]

Thanks for posting. Very interesting graphic....what it shows is that all solutions are based on probability. Nothing can be ruled out completely....but clearly there is short-term agreement. It will be valuable to follow the trend of this graphic as new models runs come out. Where can this graphic be found?

The graphic was produced by myself and isn't publicly available. I will post it occasionally when I have time and I see significant shifts.

[Frank2]

I'm sure the late Dr. Burpee (a former NHC Director) would have been very interested in that product, since he was an MIT graduate...

Frank

[StormTracker]

Good lookin' out btangy!!! Keep us posted...ST

[jinftl]

Kudos to you....thank you for allowing us to see another way to view models as a function of predictors of track...helps but the 'probability' element of models back in the forefront. That is easy to forget when you see only the skinny black line.

Thanks for posting. Very interesting graphic....what it shows is that all solutions are based on probability. Nothing can be ruled out completely....but clearly there is short-term agreement. It will be valuable to follow the trend of this graphic as new models runs come out. Where can this graphic be found?

The graphic was produced by myself and isn't publicly available. I will post it occasionally when I have time and I see significant shifts.

[Brent]

[KWT]

The 12z once again hammers Bermuda with the right front quadrant of Bill as probably a major hurricane, would be the biggest hit since Fabian if it came off...still as we know its a long way out yet!

[shah8]

I'm still not completly accepting of the recurve because I think there are too many working parts in the mechanism for that recurve. I remember the last part of Ike's journey where there were alot of models for a time pointing to Mexico, but it required several events to happen, which didn't. I'm going to wait until the storm truly starts lifting--and I think the center actually is still at 11.5N and headed mostly W.

[KWT]

NE Quadrant is starting to beef up again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I'd guess this is probably not all that far away from being a hurricane, just needs better central convection still.

[sunnyday]

Joe B. says today that Bill will be a threat from Carolina north. If he's right, SE FL will dodge another bullet.

[ROCK]

almost at 13n now...shes lifting thats for sure....WNW....is what I am seeing...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

makes sense.....a west to wnw course for awhile...

[ROCK]

looks like Bill will miss his forecast point to the north however slightly....unless of course he corrects himself or it is just a wobble..

[shah8]

I have been following Bill's CoC as the gap between the two main areas of convection which is filling in right now. I'm going to wait for the next QS to see if the CoC is actually in that northern burst.

[Brent]

WOW.

[KWT]

Convection really increasing now and deepening, looks like this will be a hurricane tonight judging from the ever improving sat.display. I think this tops out as a category-4 but we shall see...

[KWT]

Yep thats utterly amazing forecast, got to hope that that misses Bermuda otherwise it'll make even Fabian look fairly weak!

What a monster, I do think category-4 is quite possible with this one as well.

[KWT]

ECM takes a little longer to lift NW on this run, now nearly getting to 60W before getting above 20N, then strikes Bermuda and Newfoundland...

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track=55kts

AL, 03, 2009081618, , BEST, 0, 125N, 392W, 55, 994, TS, 50

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[KWT]

Yep its getting close to being a hurricane, I think about 12hrs time and we will have our first hurricane of the season.

[shah8]

Ok, I guess I give in here. It was quite a big jump north for a relocation.