ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[wzrgirl1]

How many models actually had this thing dissipating?

[ROCK]

How many models actually had this thing dissipating?

most of them...

[The Eye Wall]

I think there is evidence of an LLC...for now. There are scattered cu coming in from the south towards the convection. However it should be noted that somebody posted a QuikSKAT and no LLC was found. It is literally on the brink.

[wzrgirl1]

It doesn't look like it has a LLC does it, however it should be noted that the convection made a big jump to the NW recently...

I'm betting its in the process of reforming right now actually further NW...

I retract my last observation..... looking at the vis once again....maybe it does have a LLC still...notice on the last image the low level clouds....shear and dry air still blowing off the tops....She is screaming west and out running her convection also....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Tenacious little thing. Just like a woman.

[Tireman4]

The NHC will be prudent. They don't want to keep killing off a system and bringing it back. I mean what is this, a Soap Opera? LOL. If it does survive the harsh environment it's in, the islands will finish it off. This should be a non-issue for the U.S.

Gosh, never say never. I understand [i]should[i], but I would wait until the all clear has sounded (paraphrasing Dr Neil Frank)

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161810
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 15 20090816
180230 1405N 05709W 8432 01573 0106 +165 +116 104014 014 999 999 03
180300 1404N 05708W 8429 01574 0105 +167 +116 101015 016 014 000 03
180330 1403N 05707W 8428 01577 0107 +164 +116 105016 017 014 000 03
180400 1401N 05706W 8430 01574 0108 +165 +116 104018 018 015 000 03
180430 1400N 05705W 8429 01572 0107 +165 +115 102018 019 011 000 00
180500 1359N 05704W 8432 01571 0105 +165 +116 100018 019 010 000 03
180530 1358N 05703W 8422 01585 0108 +165 +116 103021 022 999 999 03
180600 1359N 05702W 8436 01569 0107 +165 +117 102023 024 999 999 03
180630 1401N 05702W 8431 01571 0105 +167 +117 098022 022 013 000 03
180700 1402N 05703W 8424 01578 0106 +165 +117 099022 022 014 000 03
180730 1404N 05704W 8430 01571 0107 +165 +117 100021 022 013 000 03
180800 1405N 05705W 8431 01574 0105 +165 +115 099019 020 014 000 03
180830 1407N 05706W 8429 01575 0107 +165 +114 099020 021 014 000 03
180900 1408N 05707W 8431 01571 0105 +165 +113 100022 022 013 000 03
180930 1410N 05708W 8436 01568 0105 +165 +112 101021 022 012 000 03
181000 1411N 05709W 8424 01577 0106 +165 +112 103021 021 012 000 03
181030 1413N 05710W 8434 01567 0105 +165 +111 105020 021 014 000 03
181100 1414N 05711W 8428 01575 0104 +165 +110 105020 021 012 000 03
181130 1415N 05713W 8426 01575 0104 +165 +111 100019 019 012 000 03
181200 1417N 05714W 8430 01569 0103 +167 +111 100019 019 010 000 03
$$
;

Still no evidence of an LLC.

[KWT]

If there was a LLC I'd have thought recon would find it, it hasn't thus far and therefore I think its probable there isn't one.

Still this needs to be watched even then, remember how TS Claudette came about, from just a tropical wave, could well end up seeing a similar thing with the eventual remians of Ana, or maybe even a new system from the ashes of this one...

I also heard that with hurricane Andrew the hurricane hunters couldn't close a pressure center off but kept it on because its wind were still decent at upper levels for a little while.

[Gustywind]

[The Eye Wall]

If there was a LLC I'd have thought recon would find it, it hasn't thus far and therefore I think its probable there isn't one.

Still this needs to be watched even then, remember how TS Claudette came about, from just a tropical wave, could well end up seeing a similar thing with the eventual remians of Ana, or maybe even a new system from the ashes of this one...

I also heard that with hurricane Andrew the hurricane hunters couldn't close a pressure center off but kept it on because its wind were still decent at upper levels for a little while.

This thing is being eaten alive. No DMAX in the world can save this I don't think. Yeah, there's thunderstorms blowing up, but it's like watering the grass after it's burn up. What's the point?

[jinftl]

There is a question that has to follow the one asked....how many models show a system regenerating/strengthening going out 72-120 hours? Some.

The story has not absolutely been written from start to finish yet....probably has....but enough 'noise' suggesting maybe not to keep this one in site going forward.


Sometimes we are too quick to jump to conclusions on things....there is a certain smugness of man that Mother Nature loves to show up from time to time. If I had said last Sunday we would have 3 named storms a week later, I would have been crucified here!!!

How many models actually had this thing dissipating?

most of them...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161819
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 16 20090816
181230 1418N 05715W 8442 01558 0104 +165 +111 105018 018 013 000 03
181300 1419N 05716W 8552 01450 0107 +172 +112 111018 018 010 000 00
181330 1421N 05718W 8760 01241 0107 +183 +113 112016 017 011 000 03
181400 1422N 05719W 8988 01044 0123 +195 +115 110016 016 012 000 00
181430 1423N 05720W 9205 00799 0090 +205 +119 100016 017 010 000 00
181500 1424N 05722W 9434 00579 0083 +216 +124 098016 017 010 000 00
181530 1425N 05723W 9556 00460 0074 +224 +130 103014 014 009 000 00
181600 1426N 05724W 9629 00418 0099 +228 +135 103014 015 013 000 00
181630 1427N 05726W 9687 00365 0099 +234 +141 108011 012 016 000 00
181700 1429N 05727W 9727 00327 0097 +236 +147 113012 012 016 000 03
181730 1430N 05728W 9756 00301 0097 +240 +151 116010 011 016 000 03
181800 1431N 05730W 9773 00284 0095 +240 +156 122009 010 016 000 00
181830 1432N 05731W 9771 00285 0094 +240 +159 123008 009 016 000 00
181900 1433N 05732W 9767 00288 0094 +240 +163 132010 010 017 000 00
181930 1434N 05734W 9772 00284 0094 +240 +165 136008 009 016 000 00
182000 1435N 05735W 9770 00285 0093 +240 +167 139009 010 017 000 03
182030 1442N 05729W 9772 00286 0104 +239 +169 161011 012 016 000 03
182100 1443N 05730W 9775 00301 0118 +237 +171 161012 013 007 001 03
182130 1445N 05730W 9776 00303 0108 +238 +172 164012 013 019 000 00
182200 1447N 05730W 9770 00285 0094 +239 +172 166012 012 015 000 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

There is a question that has to follow the one asked....how many models show a system regenerating/strengthening going out 72-120 hours? Some.

The story has not absolutely been written from start to finish yet....probably has....but enough 'noise' suggesting maybe not to keep this one in site going forward.


Sometimes we are too quick to jump to conclusions on things....there is a certain smugness of man that Mother Nature loves to show up from time to time. If I had said last Sunday we would have 3 named storms a week later, I would have been crucified here!!!

How many models actually had this thing dissipating?

most of them...

Oh I agree.....I wrote ANA off the last time she lost all of her convection.....even coaxed a "its dead Jim" from WXMN57........

[Gustywind]

16/1745 UTC 15.3N 57.9W T2.0/2.0 ANA

[jinftl]

Even if Ana is no more.....she is forecast to at least remain an open wave heading wnw towards quite possibly the GoM in 5 days. An area of disturbance moving over water with high TCHP (not to mention the infamous Loop Current) and low shear has to be watched in August.

Maybe even a system that may develop from the remnant might get another name...but i wouldn't take our eyes off of this one too much. What we see now...and this is true of any system....even of entire basins....can change in just a few days. Many infamous storms have developed from the remnants of prior systems.... (and gotten different names than the original storm)

The map below shows a td in the gulf...if you read the accompanying discussion and data provided in the advisory, that is largely a blended strength forecast dervied from either this being dissipated after trekking over hispanola and cuba and this being a ts if she can avoid those landmasses.

Thurs Am forecast (as of last advisory...of course this could change at 5pm) = 40% chance of tropical storm vs 26% chance of dissipated...see data below map

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161829
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 17 20090816
182230 1448N 05730W 9770 00285 0092 +240 +173 164013 013 016 000 00
182300 1450N 05730W 9758 00294 0091 +240 +173 167013 014 018 000 03
182330 1452N 05730W 9757 00295 0090 +240 +173 166014 014 017 000 00
182400 1453N 05730W 9754 00297 0089 +244 +173 169013 014 014 000 00
182430 1455N 05730W 9750 00300 0089 +245 +174 168013 014 016 000 03
182500 1457N 05730W 9746 00304 0089 +245 +174 167013 014 015 000 03
182530 1459N 05730W 9741 00308 0090 +239 +175 159011 012 011 000 03
182600 1501N 05730W 9742 00309 0091 +235 +176 157010 012 008 000 03
182630 1502N 05730W 9744 00305 0089 +235 +177 160010 011 005 000 00
182700 1504N 05730W 9739 00310 0090 +235 +176 151011 011 002 000 00
182730 1506N 05730W 9750 00299 0089 +236 +176 146010 011 005 000 03
182800 1507N 05730W 9764 00286 0089 +240 +176 136009 010 004 000 00
182830 1509N 05730W 9785 00269 0089 +239 +177 140008 009 005 000 03
182900 1510N 05730W 9798 00257 0090 +237 +177 149009 010 008 000 00
182930 1512N 05730W 9765 00285 0090 +231 +178 165008 009 008 000 03
183000 1514N 05730W 9731 00317 0092 +219 +177 169008 009 010 000 00
183030 1515N 05730W 9693 00352 0093 +219 +175 159011 012 011 000 00
183100 1517N 05730W 9700 00345 0092 +223 +170 177009 010 008 000 00
183130 1519N 05730W 9742 00308 0092 +224 +167 187008 009 008 000 00
183200 1520N 05730W 9770 00281 0090 +225 +165 187009 009 010 000 03
$$

Now searching at low levels.

[weatherSnoop]

Crazy, Why are so many readings being flagged?

[gone2beach]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...AIRCRAFT FINDS ANA POORLY ORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 16
Location: 14.9°N 57.8°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

[KWT]

There going to be nothing left of the old LLC to find IMO, look further NW where that convection is constantly developing...thats my guess if its going to be anywhere, it'll be there.

[Derek Ortt]

there is some type of circ, that is clear.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161840
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 18 20090816
183230 1522N 05730W 9771 00279 0089 +225 +165 177009 010 005 000 00
183300 1523N 05730W 9771 00279 0088 +231 +166 164010 010 010 000 03
183330 1525N 05730W 9762 00286 0086 +238 +166 158013 013 011 000 00
183400 1527N 05730W 9750 00298 0087 +235 +168 150012 013 002 000 03
183430 1528N 05730W 9740 00306 0087 +234 +171 158010 011 009 000 03
183500 1530N 05729W 9744 00303 0088 +229 +173 161012 012 000 002 03
183530 1531N 05729W 9714 00329 0087 +227 +174 156013 013 003 002 03
183600 1533N 05729W 9712 00332 0087 +227 +175 165014 015 019 000 03
183630 1535N 05729W 9737 00307 0086 +228 +175 177017 018 020 000 00
183700 1536N 05729W 9722 00320 0085 +227 +175 171017 018 022 000 00
183730 1538N 05729W 9758 00285 0082 +228 +176 176020 021 025 000 00
183800 1540N 05729W 9767 00275 0079 +228 +176 180024 026 028 000 00
183830 1542N 05729W 9814 00230 0076 +225 +176 186027 027 030 001 00
183900 1543N 05728W 9780 00258 0074 +228 +174 178026 028 033 000 03
183930 1545N 05730W 9742 00288 0071 +222 +174 137020 023 024 004 03
184000 1545N 05731W 9751 00282 0070 +237 +172 112021 021 024 000 00
184030 1546N 05733W 9752 00280 0069 +242 +171 096023 025 028 000 00
184100 1546N 05735W 9747 00285 0070 +237 +173 078027 028 027 000 00
184130 1547N 05736W 9725 00306 0072 +225 +175 068028 029 027 000 00
184200 1547N 05738W 9703 00328 0076 +218 +175 060030 032 026 000 00
$$

I have no idea why the flagged readings. Close to TS force and pressure down to 1007, still no west wind though but closer.