ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 161800
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
200 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...AIRCRAFT FINDS ANA POORLY ORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST.
MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES...385 KM...EAST OF THE DOMINICA.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ANA IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND COULD DISSIPATE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 57.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$

[The Eye Wall]

The tropical storm symbol is no longer showing on the NHC. Hmmmm

[wzrgirl1]

Because on the 2:00 update they said aircraft barely saw this as a TS and that it could dissipate tonight. Maybe that is what they will be calling for at 5:00. The dry air was too much for her.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161759
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 14 20090816
175230 1430N 05731W 8433 01569 0107 +162 +117 168002 004 014 000 03
175300 1429N 05729W 8428 01573 0107 +161 +116 172004 005 011 000 03
175330 1428N 05728W 8429 01572 0104 +164 +114 159003 004 011 000 00
175400 1426N 05727W 8429 01572 0101 +168 +114 157005 006 009 000 03
175430 1425N 05726W 8432 01566 0097 +171 +114 168006 006 009 000 03
175500 1424N 05725W 8428 01569 0096 +170 +114 172005 006 014 000 03
175530 1423N 05724W 8432 01567 0099 +170 +115 170005 005 011 000 03
175600 1421N 05723W 8429 01572 0103 +168 +117 160005 005 017 000 03
175630 1420N 05722W 8430 01570 0103 +167 +117 150006 006 014 000 03
175700 1419N 05720W 8429 01572 0101 +170 +117 142007 007 016 000 03
175730 1418N 05719W 8429 01573 0100 +170 +118 134006 007 999 999 03
175800 1416N 05718W 8429 01572 0100 +170 +118 122006 006 014 000 03
175830 1415N 05717W 8429 01572 0102 +169 +118 124007 008 014 000 03
175900 1414N 05716W 8428 01574 0104 +165 +118 114007 007 014 000 03
175930 1413N 05715W 8429 01570 0104 +165 +119 086009 009 012 000 00
180000 1411N 05714W 8432 01568 0104 +166 +118 084009 009 999 999 03
180030 1410N 05713W 8429 01571 0105 +164 +118 090009 009 999 999 03
180100 1409N 05712W 8429 01571 0107 +160 +118 092010 011 016 000 03
180130 1408N 05711W 8432 01570 0105 +165 +118 089012 012 016 000 03
180200 1406N 05710W 8430 01570 0105 +165 +117 091013 014 015 000 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

From what I can see on Recon, this is not even a tropical cyclone. I don't think it has an LLC.

[ROCK]

shes opened back up but as we saw with Claudette in the GOM things can change down the line....JB might be on to something....

[CrazyC83]

What was the last time a storm dissipated and regenerated twice?

[KWT]

It doesn't look like it has a LLC does it, however it should be noted that the convection made a big jump to the NW recently...

I'm betting its in the process of reforming right now actually further NW...

[wzrgirl1]

5:00 will be the last advisory I do believe. She has endured too much. However, I could be wrong.

[Javlin]

shes opened back up but as we saw with Claudette in the GOM things can change down the line....JB might be on to something....

Are you at liberty to discuss that Rock?

[wzrgirl1]

It doesn't look like it has a LLC does it, however it should be noted that the convection made a big jump to the NW recently...

I'm betting its in the process of reforming right now actually further NW...

That would make the models shift signficantly right huh?

[KWT]

Still has winds that can justify TS status though so the NHC will probably not kill it off just yet just in case it is reforming the center...

It had a circulation that could be seen until about 4hrs ago, then the convection blew up to the NW of the center and so that maybe whats going on IMO.

[Brent]

Dead at 5. This thing is pathetic.

[wxman57]

Ana appears to be an open wave now. Maybe a small eddy left of it, but that's it.

[wzrgirl1]

What was the last time a storm dissipated and regenerated twice?

That's a good question. Has it ever happened?

[Thunder44]

shes opened back up but as we saw with Claudette in the GOM things can change down the line....JB might be on to something....

The last time she "degenerated" she at least kept her LLC. Now it appears she may have none.

[KWT]

Its certainly an open wave right now I think recon proves that quite nicely.

The issue is whether or not its gonig to reform one to the NW where the deeper convection has been flaring.

[jinftl]

No doubt on Ana's current weak state....may be an open wave once again.....however....if the remnants can manage to bypass hispanola and cuba...and some models are hinting that may happen to some extent....what would prevent even this wave from getting going later on down the road when in the gulf, yucatan channel, or even florida straits? Something to keep in mind.

[The Eye Wall]

The NHC will be prudent. They don't want to keep killing off a system and bringing it back. I mean what is this, a Soap Opera? LOL. If it does survive the harsh environment it's in, the islands will finish it off. This should be a non-issue for the U.S.

[ROCK]

It doesn't look like it has a LLC does it, however it should be noted that the convection made a big jump to the NW recently...

I'm betting its in the process of reforming right now actually further NW...

I retract my last observation..... looking at the vis once again....maybe it does have a LLC still...notice on the last image the low level clouds....shear and dry air still blowing off the tops....She is screaming west and out running her convection also....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html