ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[baygirl_1]

Hey guys,
The Mobile NWS Office put this in their forecast discussion this morning:

NOTE: THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS NOSING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...LANDFALL COULD OCCUR MORE TO THE WEST.
STAY TUNED TO THIS FAST EVOLVING SITUATION. /10

We're watching it closely over here in Mobile and we have family and friends in the FWB/Destin area who are under the gun. So crazy that it brewed so quick!

[wxman57]

New surface plot/satellite. Buoy 42036 has south winds 20 kts now. Center only about 50-55 miles from the coast. Just about 3 hours to go. Seems to be tracking right of the forecast track, if anything.

[KWT]

Right or left of the track gives it another little bit of time.

Anyway its looking pretty decent now IMO, maybe a little linear but I'd guess thats a TS if I saw it in front of my for the first time.

[wxman57]

Slightly newer shot. 25kt wind just offshore Apalachicola. Note how high the pressures are in the NE Gulf - 1015-1016mb. Pretty high.

[drezee]

URNT15 KNHC 161554
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 04 20090816
154730 3018N 08803W 5752 04774 0125 -010 -017 134006 007 999 999 03
154800 3018N 08800W 5752 04769 0127 -011 -019 134009 010 999 999 03
154830 3018N 08758W 5750 04771 0131 -015 -020 137009 010 999 999 03
154900 3018N 08755W 5750 04773 0141 -018 -021 145010 012 999 999 03
154930 3018N 08752W 5751 04776 0142 -019 -023 132008 010 999 999 03
155000 3018N 08749W 5751 04769 0137 -017 -025 127007 008 999 999 03
155030 3018N 08747W 5750 04763 0135 -013 -027 133008 008 999 999 03
155100 3018N 08744W 5750 04757 0129 -012 -028 139007 008 999 999 03
155130 3019N 08741W 5751 04745 0108 -015 -029 129009 009 999 999 03
155200 3019N 08738W 5750 04764 0144 -016 -029 120009 009 999 999 03
155230 3019N 08735W 5757 04755 0131 -014 -030 119009 010 999 999 03
155300 3019N 08733W 5748 04786 0128 -015 -033 120009 009 999 999 03
155330 3019N 08730W 5750 04770 0125 -012 -035 139010 011 999 999 03
155400 3019N 08727W 5749 04779 0122 -014 -036 141011 011 999 999 03
155430 3019N 08725W 5753 04768 0116 -014 -037 140012 012 999 999 03
155500 3019N 08722W 5749 04767 0130 -014 -038 139012 012 999 999 03
155530 3019N 08720W 5750 04766 0135 -015 -039 143011 011 999 999 03
155600 3019N 08717W 5750 04768 0127 -012 -040 140011 012 999 999 03
155630 3019N 08714W 5750 04774 0125 -010 -041 142011 012 999 999 03
155700 3019N 08712W 5750 04770 0127 -011 -042 138012 013 999 999 03
$$

[StormTracker]

New surface plot/satellite. Buoy 42036 has south winds 20 kts now. Center only about 50-55 miles from the coast. Just about 3 hours to go. Seems to be tracking right of the forecast track, if anything.

That's even better if that's what's happening(tracking right of the forecast)! Less room & time to strengthen...

[jinftl]

Not out of the question that this may be a repeated drill by the end of the week as well with Ana (as of 11am, NHC put the probability of Ana being a ts as she enters the southeast gulf of mexico at 40%, and a hurricane at that time of 6%)....not a boring time of year. (of course, refer to ana thread for that info....just pointing out what a busy week it could be for residents of the gulf).

Stay safe....luckily td4/claudette is not a huge system and should not sit in any one spot and dump feet of rain like this area has seen with prior ts.

Hey guys,
The Mobile NWS Office put this in their forecast discussion this morning:

NOTE: THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS NOSING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...LANDFALL COULD OCCUR MORE TO THE WEST.
STAY TUNED TO THIS FAST EVOLVING SITUATION. /10

We're watching it closely over here in Mobile and we have family and friends in the FWB/Destin area who are under the gun. So crazy that it brewed so quick!

[vacanechaser]

New surface plot/satellite. Buoy 42036 has south winds 20 kts now. Center only about 50-55 miles from the coast. Just about 3 hours to go. Seems to be tracking right of the forecast track, if anything.

dont see that motion on the radar i am looking at... looks to be right on the nhc forecast track...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[StormTracker]

Hey guys,
The Mobile NWS Office put this in their forecast discussion this morning:

NOTE: THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS NOSING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...LANDFALL COULD OCCUR MORE TO THE WEST.
STAY TUNED TO THIS FAST EVOLVING SITUATION. /10

We're watching it closely over here in Mobile and we have family and friends in the FWB/Destin area who are under the gun. So crazy that it brewed so quick!

About an hour ago Dr. Lyons did mention the fact that TD4 was expected to possibly make a little bit of a westward jog just before landfall which would put it a little closer to the AL/FL border!

[Derek Ortt]

looks to be intensifying fairly rapidly on 1km satellite and radar imagery

[drezee]

at 1601, sat satellite shows nice cumulonimbis tower popped over center.

[wxman57]

Looks like the center will cross the coast just west of Apalachicola, Jesse. It'll track right along the coast over Panama City or just east of Panama City. You can see how the NHC track was shifted a bit to the right at 10am on this loop:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[tolakram]

pressure at this buoy finally starting to drop and the winds are rising.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

[JonathanBelles]

Little to no rain here today. All clouds, but it has kept things cooler. It looks like a TS to me, but recon should confirm that. Didnt expect to see Claudette in the gulf before.

[Sanibel]

Dry air wedge on south side on radar.

[tallywx]

New surface plot/satellite. Buoy 42036 has south winds 20 kts now. Center only about 50-55 miles from the coast. Just about 3 hours to go. Seems to be tracking right of the forecast track, if anything.

I'm showing a steady GRLEVEL3 TLH radar 2-hour motion of 310 degrees. On this track, it would actually pass about 20 miles SW of the Cape San Blas spit and have a lot more time over water.

[tolakram]

It looks to be gaining a more westward component, though it's extremely hard to tell with these images.

[vacanechaser]

New surface plot/satellite. Buoy 42036 has south winds 20 kts now. Center only about 50-55 miles from the coast. Just about 3 hours to go. Seems to be tracking right of the forecast track, if anything.

I'm showing a steady GRLEVEL3 TLH radar 2-hour motion of 310 degrees. On this track, it would actually pass about 20 miles SW of the Cape San Blas spit and have a lot more time over water.

i agree...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[deltadog03]

I agree with wxman...Don't think this is over water much longer. Maybe 3 hours at most.

[Javlin]

I would have to agree it appears W on those frames and I thought I saw that on the http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

just tuff to tell on that one at times