ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[tolakram]

Not much time left.

[drezee]

If this thing is still offshore in 12 hours, then they may need to issue other watches...upper levels are great and the SSTs are the warmest they get...this thing reminds me of Danny from 97...size and all

[Jagno]

Chicken Dinner:

(EDT) WDIR WSPD
9:50 am W ( 265 deg ) 8.2 kts
9:40 am WNW ( 288 deg ) 9.1 kts
9:30 am NW ( 320 deg ) 8.9 kts
9:20 am NNW ( 341 deg ) 9.7 kts
9:10 am NNW ( 340 deg ) 9.3 kts
9:00 am NNW ( 330 deg ) 9.5 kts

I am a bit surprised it turned S of due W so quickly...may be indicate a slight NW turn.

Drezee;
What are you folks seeing from this storm in your area?

[KWT]

If it wobbles westward it buys itself another hour or two which can make quite a lot of difference in terms of strength.

Also that radar presentation is really impressive, its really improved in the last 12hrs in a huge way!

[drezee]

Chicken Dinner:

(EDT) WDIR WSPD
9:50 am W ( 265 deg ) 8.2 kts
9:40 am WNW ( 288 deg ) 9.1 kts
9:30 am NW ( 320 deg ) 8.9 kts
9:20 am NNW ( 341 deg ) 9.7 kts
9:10 am NNW ( 340 deg ) 9.3 kts
9:00 am NNW ( 330 deg ) 9.5 kts

I am a bit surprised it turned S of due W so quickly...may be indicate a slight NW turn.

Drezee;
What are you folks seeing from this storm in your area?

just brillant cirrus clouds fanning from the system (and sinking air)...it is giving it a go...it needs to get onshore now...

[drezee]

after going through my radar archives, this system also looks like Erin from 1995 right after it emerged from the FL Pen.

[aOl]

??????? The 11AM advisory from NHC doesn't show those numbers?

The 11AM discussion strengthens it to a 50kt tropical storm, which is 58mph. I rounded a little.

[Sanibel]

The Gulf was still slightly unfavorable with the high pressures and surface winds accurately pointed out by Wxman57 last night. Not a scenario for rapid development. Still, it was exciting to have one going off nearby last night. Sunny here on the dry side. Rains to west out in Gulf in trailing band. Mild winds from south.

Think this one was set-off by a trip over the Gulf Stream yesterday morning.

[tolakram]

Next Buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

[bob rulz]

??????? The 11AM advisory from NHC doesn't show those numbers?

The 11AM discussion strengthens it to a 50kt tropical storm, which is 58mph. I rounded a little.

You still aren't specifying that it FORECASTS it to strengthen to a 50kt tropical storm.

[aOl]

Radar motion the last 1.5 hours is interesting.



Obviously it won't follow that line most likely, but I extrapolated it to show that it's definitely looking more like a 325 motion at this time.

[tolakram]

Roll your own satellite loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =Animation

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&zoom=1&info=vis&numframes=6&type=Animation


You can see the inflow really picking up.

Larger

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... height=768

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&zoom=1&info=vis&numframes=6&type=Animation&width=1024&height=768

[Dionne]

??????? The 11AM advisory from NHC doesn't show those numbers?

The 11AM discussion strengthens it to a 50kt tropical storm, which is 58mph. I rounded a little.

You still aren't specifying that it FORECASTS it to strengthen to a 50kt tropical storm.

ok.....found it. From the way TD4 is blowing up right now....nothing will surprise me....come on RECON!

[aOl]

??????? The 11AM advisory from NHC doesn't show those numbers?

The 11AM discussion strengthens it to a 50kt tropical storm, which is 58mph. I rounded a little.

You still aren't specifying that it FORECASTS it to strengthen to a 50kt tropical storm.

OK, I see what you're saying now. I said that it strengthens it in the discussion so that's what I was meaning, a forecast, not the initial intensity.

[TampaFl]

Nice radar loop view: Note how the center is following just east of the forecasted track (pink line) & how it has shifted slightly east (forcasted track) from early this morning. Looks like a landfal @ Apalachacola. Thougts & comments welcomed.

Robert

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206148:3194_21198335&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[KWT]

Looks like there is a spot of lower radar returns in the middle of the depression, thats taking on a classic middle TS look IMO, between 50-60mph.

[wxman57]

Squalls near the center appear to be decreasing in intensity on radar, to me. Get that recon out there!

[tallywx]

The St. George Island beach right now (just offshore of Apalachicola) is roughed up a bit right now to be sure.

http://www.beachview.com/st_george_is_640.htm

A tropical depression ain't causing that level of waves...

[tallywx]

Check this Davis Vantage Pro station on Alligator Point. It's sustained at nearly TS strength.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLALLIG2

[tolakram]

You can almost make out the center on visible. Looks to be some dry air making it into or near the center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... height=768

edit: Though the shape is starting to take on the appearance of a rapidly organizing storm.