ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

[Thunder44]

Hires QS pass at 11:45 UTC hinted at a small LLC with some WSW to SW winds. Also shows some 40kt wind barbs. But many seem to be rain contaminated:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas75.png

[CrazyC83]

Hires QS pass at 11:45 UTC hinted at a small LLC with some WSW to SW winds. Also shows some 40kt wind barbs. But many seem to be rain contaminated:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas75.png

But with so many that are not, I'd say this is a TS...

[attallaman]

How far west might this system go before it makes landfall as it stands now? Mobile, AL? Will I receive anything out of this system here along the MS Gulf Coast?

As it goes right now, and because its so small.. don't expect much at all along the MS coast from the TD, unless it were to change course and move more westerly, which is unlikely at this time... storms we are getting right now are not related to the TD..

So the rain that I'm receiving now is from gulf moisture being pumped into my area as a result of TD #4 and not from the system itself? Thanks for the post.

[ronjon]

Nice feeder band developing to the south with convection increasing. I'm located on the west coast of FL at about the latitude of the storm now. Just overcast with 10-15 mph wind from the SE. There has been a slight tidal surge, however, with high tide now running about a foot above normal.

[KWT]

Yeah Qscat probably does suggest an upgrade is possible soon, we will have to wait and see but there are a few 40kts out there.

[wxman57]

Hires QS pass at 11:45 UTC hinted at a small LLC with some WSW to SW winds. Also shows some 40kt wind barbs. But many seem to be rain contaminated:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas75.png

That QS image shows ESE winds SW of the center. Not much evidence there of an LLC. Even tropical waves can produce 35-40 kt sustained winds in squalls. I put the center inland between Panama City and Apalachicola around 4pm CDT today. NHC could call it a TS, but any TS winds would be confined to offshore. The center is passing right over buoy 42036 now. It reported a NNE wind 9.7 kts. Let's see if it goes SW in the next hour. I'm doubtful.

[senorpepr]

820
NOUS42 KNHC 161345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 16 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 17/1800Z,18/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0302A ANA
C. 17/1600Z
D. 16.8N 64.6W
E. 17/1700Z TO 18/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 18/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0402A ANA
C. 18/0330Z
D. 17.6N 68.2W
E. 18/0500Z TO 18/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING TASKING ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 2 IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE LAUNCHED
TODAY AT 16/1500Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cycloneye]

Plane has been tasked and will depart at 1500z to investigate TD 4.

[wxman57]

Radar estimate 28.6N/84.4W. Movement about 330 deg at 15 kts. It's 65nm from the coast. On this heading, the center will cross the coast just to the west of Apalachicola, FL around 1PM CDT, or just over 4 hours from now. It's window for strengthening is short.

[wxman57]

Plane has been tasked and will depart at 1500z to investigate TD 4.

Good, it'll arrive shortly before the center reaches the coast.

[KWT]

Yep going to be very interesting to see if it has strengthened to a TS, looks like recon will just about get there in time!

[CrazyC83]

As we saw with Humberto, a slight change in direction can make a world of difference, since the coast bends considerably and that could mean another 3 hours or so over water.

[dixiebreeze]

TS now?

1145 UTC 28.2N 84.2W T2.0/2.0 04L -- Atlantic

[wxman57]

As we saw with Humberto, a slight change in direction can make a world of difference, since the coast bends considerably and that could mean another 3 hours or so over water.

Yeah, I sort of remember Humberto. 1.5 hours before landfall we all agreed that there was no chance a 45 mph TS could become a hurricane in that short of time. Then it turned NE, was over water 3 hours longer and we had Humberto. I don't see any evidence of this one "pulling a Humberto" yet, though. And I still can't find conclusive evidence of an LLC in the obs. It should be north of that buoy now.

[Dionne]

Radar estimate 28.6N/84.4W. Movement about 330 deg at 15 kts. It's 65nm from the coast. On this heading, the center will cross the coast just to the west of Apalachicola, FL around 1PM CDT, or just over 4 hours from now. It's window for strengthening is short.

Someone needs to tell NWS Mobile.....the TS Warning has landfall "this evening".....

[KWT]

Yeah I don't think its going to do a Humberto though recon will be very interesting to observe, I tend to find that in these types of systems they are often surprisingly strong, usually between 50-60mph.

[dixiebreeze]

2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb

It's at 2.0/2.0 now.

[wxman57]

Buoy now reporting west wind (270 deg) at 10 kts just a few miles southwest of the center. That would confirm a LLC, but there appears to be little or no wind outside those squalls east of the center.

[cyclonic chronic]

i think its a good idea to send in recon to a potentialy strengthening system near the coast. i know its only gonna be a T.S. but still, the data they get will help us better understand these small systems that blow up quickly in the G.O.M. if anything it'll be a good scientific data gathering mission. itll be interesting to see how the wind speeds corespond to the pressure. i think because the outside enviornmental pressure is a lil high. the winds will be a lil stronger than they would for a storm with the same pressure in the deep tropics. wow dont know if that came out understood...... lol