ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 161309
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1309 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1200 090817 0000 090817 1200 090818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 37.7W 12.8N 40.8W 13.6N 44.0W 14.2N 46.9W
BAMD 11.9N 37.7W 12.8N 40.4W 13.8N 43.2W 14.9N 45.9W
BAMM 11.9N 37.7W 12.6N 40.9W 13.2N 44.1W 13.9N 47.0W
LBAR 11.9N 37.7W 12.5N 40.4W 13.3N 43.6W 14.0N 46.8W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 69KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 59KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200 090821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 49.6W 16.7N 54.4W 20.3N 59.9W 23.5N 64.4W
BAMD 15.9N 48.6W 18.5N 53.7W 21.8N 58.6W 25.9N 62.6W
BAMM 14.5N 49.6W 16.6N 54.1W 20.3N 58.9W 24.1N 63.2W
LBAR 14.4N 50.1W 16.0N 56.2W 19.7N 60.2W 23.7N 63.5W
SHIP 85KTS 98KTS 97KTS 91KTS
DSHP 85KTS 98KTS 97KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 33.3W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM

[Special K]

Can someone please post the ECM plot for Bill?

[cycloneye]

Can someone please post the ECM plot for Bill?

Here it is.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[gatorcane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yeah its already starting to move just north of W now and is going to pass north of the next forecast point. I don't think the Leewards are going to need to deal with Bill. No doubt this thing is fish bound. It just got too strong too quickly tapping into the weakness. Had it stayed weaker it could have moved more west.

BTW -- its following a classic track many Cape Verde systems follow. They look like they are going to hit the Leewards then find way to miss them to the north. We have seen it over and over again. I have always wondered what if the Leewards were located more north than they are today? They would be getting hit alot more.

[storms NC]

May I ask when are the Ull to move out of the way? looking at the models if the ULL is still there it will go right though it.
I was thinking it would move as the front moves off shore and pushs it to the east. JMO

[cycloneye]

Bermuda may be a different story so I would not call it a fish.

[KWT]

Yep upto 50kts now, structure is lookin quite decent and even now still is reminding me of a WPAC system. Next phase in development will be a smaller deep explosion of convection where the center is, we've had an attempt at that but its not been that impressive.

I see no reason why this can't be a decent category-3/4 down the line either given the conditions it has aloft, strong upper high aloft.

Also indeed Bermuda is a real threat, have to watch that!

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Bermuda may be a different story so I would not call it a fish.

That's true, it could threaten Bermuda. Fortunately its such a small area geographically, it would take a near perfect track to seriously impact that island. Models seems to take Bill west of Bermuda and East of the CONUS at this time. However, we cannot rule that out a Bermuda hit yet should the consensus shift more right.

[Macrocane]

Poor Bill, dry air will be a problem for him today, once it moves away from the SAL the chances for a more rapide intensification are better IMO.

[KWT]

Gatorcane, the 06z shows us what we don't want to see in that respect, a probable major just a touch to the SW of Bermuda, that would be quite impressive I'd imagine for them.

Also note depending on the trough set-up later on this is also a threat to the Newfoundlands and maybe even the NE US if the trough takes a bit longer...

[cycloneye]

A Fabian type track may be close to what may be the Bill track.Bermuda may or may not get a hit as its early to conclude that.

[gatorcane]

Fabian looks like a possible track for Bill.

[KWT]

I've said Carol 1953 is probably the closest match of them all actually:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Though if it curves faster like the models are suggesting a fusion between Carol and Fabian may not be far off.

[storms NC]

[CourierPR]

As I look at movement on satellite, the overall movement is WNW. The storm has by no means made a huge jump north and no one should be sounding the all clear for any area, most especially the islands.

[Blown Away]

IMO, looks like Bill has picked up forward speed, is moving more WNW, and has gulped a big slug of dry air.

[KWT]

ULL is moving a touch now to the NE which is where the weakness will emerge soon. This motion is also probably whats shifted the upper high and causing Bill to pick up a WNW motion.

[alan1961]

IMO, looks like Bill has picked up forward speed, is moving more WNW, and has gulped a big slug of dry air.

will always be in the equation this drier air blown

[CrazyC83]

looks to recurve at this time. great news for the islands and the US

Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will seriously need to watch this though...

[gatorcane]

As I look at movement on satellite, the overall movement is WNW. The storm has by no means made a huge jump north and no one should be sounding the all clear for any area, most especially the islands.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why not? Just about every model is sending it about 100-200 miles NE of the NE leewards. I see no reason to believe the Leewards are going to be significantly impacted at this point given the model consensus. Not only that Bill has already started to gain lattitude. If it were still move W or WSW, I'd have to way there would be more uncertainty but you can't deny it is not starting to move more WNW already.