ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[KatDaddy]

Joe B just posted on his site stating Ana will not be a player in the Caribbean but may roar back to life in the GOM and that the GOM is a ticking time bomb with the heat content.

[tolakram]

[Thunder44]

Latest QS pass this morning shows no closed LLC:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png

I meant to post this in the other ANA thread.

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 161137
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
800 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA RACING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 470
MILES...755 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 54.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see what the 06z GFDL does with it, esp given it is quite far south still and still picking up no latitude at all, this one has IMO pretty much only a 5% of striking the main Caribbean Islands now unless it starts to deepen.

[Gustywind]

Ana does not to make the wnw turn... . Surprises in stores?

000
WTNT32 KNHC 161137
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
800 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA RACING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 470
MILES...755 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 54.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[KWT]

Not that surprising to me really, its weak and small and the low levels are really quick and so it was always going to be a westerly job IMO.

Any strengthening will see it lift up a touch but for now it looks more like life support with bursts being sheared off within a few hours of development.

I still don't think this a TS but there you go. It certainly wouldn't get upgraded thats for sure!

[tolakram]

Convection over the center that quickscat did not see.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Remember this thing is racing west.

[rrm]

if ana breaks down is there still a chance she could build back up in the gom?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Racing west. That means that any westerly shear component will be increased (relative shear) I see what the danger is here based on the synoptics. This may be a bit troublesome for the islands, but if it survives ( I think it may have passed the highest likelihood of dissipation) it could really develop after passing the Antilles. Low shear, warmer water (29-30 degC) and thr dry air to the SW of Ana is mixing out. The ULL to Ana's North is also filling in.

[KWT]

Very possible IMO actually, of course there could be a front diving into the Gulf as that seems to have been a trend this summer so far but for the early days its certainly interesting...

I personally think this has more chance of hitting Yucatan then Hispaniola right now but I'm not going to make that call just yet as it could still lift out if it develops longer lasting convection. The Gulf situation is something we need to watch VERY closely, esp if it avoids the islands.

[rrm]

if ana stays on its path what time frame are we looking at of a us landfall......a week?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Might we start to see a major bend in the models to the N/NNE of this system once if gets near the gulf....If it even survives? Our local AFD seems to think a front will push through late next week. Wouldn't that turn the steering currents out of the SW out ahead of the approaching storm before it even makes it to the central gulf?

[quote][/quote]HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...FORCING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF STATES. THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF
THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE BEST FORCING GOES WITH
IT. WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...HAVE WENT WITH HIGHER END
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND KEEP POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

[KWT]

Well too early to call that sort of thing to be honest rrm but IF that were to happen 7 days does seem reasonable.

What do the experts think by the way?

[rrm]

Well too early to call that sort of thing to be honest rrm but IF that were to happen 7 days does seem reasonable.

What do the experts think by the way?

thank you for the reply kwt

[cycloneye]

Still a Tropical Storm according to the 12 UTC Best Track.

AL, 02, 2009081612, , BEST, 0, 146N, 548W, 35, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[KWT]

Also STILL at 14.6N!

This is heading for the Caribbean Sea, I think its perfectly the NHC are going to have to adjust south of the Caribbean Islands...I think this may actually end up hitting the Yucatan now!

[rrm]

any signs of life from ana?

[BensonTCwatcher]

very possible KWT, but if this thing intensifies in the carrib, it will be drawn up by any weakness. Nobody off the hook just yet.

[Stormcenter]

If Ana survives (very unlikely right now) and makes it into the GOM there will
be a trough coming into play that will shoot her up to the NE. Conditions may also
not be too favorable in the GOM for strengthening. IMO