ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[KWT]

Should develop pretty quickly, though as has been said it has around 18hrs, its not a lot of time, though Lorenzo got to hurricane strength in that time as well as Humberto, needs exceptional strengthening though to get to that stage.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah its still going to have to wrap up very fast if its going to become anything more then a weak/moderate TS, whilst Humberto is in the back of our minds, but it still needed a solid 24hrs after the stage that soon to be TD4 is at, and TD4 hasn't got that long over water, probably barely 18hrs.

I'm pretty confident this won't have time to wind itself up beyond say 50kts...still going to be a quick surprise thats for sure.

humberto went from TD to hurricane in 12 hours...

[Aric Dunn]

Should develop pretty quickly, though as has been said it has around 18hrs, its not a lot of time, though Lorenzo got to hurricane strength in that time as well as Humberto, needs exceptional strengthening though to get to that stage.

remember its small.. it can happen...

[bob rulz]

The chances of rapid strengthening are certainly high but let's be realistic here. Humberto set a record for intensification from a TD to a hurricane. The chances of another Humberto are very low.

[The Eye Wall]

Stating the obvious here, but we should see Tropical Storm Warnings posted with the first advisory for the Florida panhandle west to say Mississippi or so. This is just my opinion. I don't know for sure.

[KWT]

From development to 18hrs after it went from 25kts to 55kts, thats very rapid strengthening anyway.

I just don't think its going to get the time to be honest, sure I'm not saying the conditions are great for a fast bloomer but Humberto had just a little more time then this will have.

Still these small little systems can be surprising.

[The Eye Wall]

WTNT34 KNHC 160858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NEW DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16
MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA NEAR THE PATH
OF THE CENTER.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Aric Dunn]

Im starting to see feeder bands setting up.. the surface circ maybe developing just wsw of the mid level circ.. interesting.. i was wondering why there was a northward or nnw component..

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NEW DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16
MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA NEAR THE PATH
OF THE CENTER.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 83.9W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 83.9W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.0N 87.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 83.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

DATA FROM THE WFO TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00Z SUGGESTED THAT THERE PROBABLY
WAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THIS...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A SHIP
REPORT FROM A CARNIVAL CRUISE LINE VESSEL OF 40 KT...THIS REPORT IS
NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER
VELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
AND DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORM STATUS IS LIKELY TO BE
ATTAINED SOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM THE HWRF AND GFDL SUGGEST A MIDDLE-RANGE TROPICAL
STORM BY LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT AFTER THE 12 HOUR 45 KT
FORECAST INTENSITY SHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS
APPROXIMATE TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
A CONSENSUS OF A FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ITS EFFECTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN RATHER CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 27.7N 83.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 29.2N 85.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 31.0N 86.7W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1800Z 33.0N 87.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Yeah it seemed to be heading a little too far to the north, surface circulation may well not be perfectly stacked, not surprising given its rapidly developing.

I fully expect this to be upto about 45-50kts be landfall, which is a pretty rapid strengtheing given its going to be inland by tonight.

Also note its at 30kts, in this set-up a ship may well be enough to find a TS.

[Aric Dunn]

one thing to remember we are going to see higher winds with higher pressures the background pressure is so high so a ts may be at 1005 to 1006 mb and if it makes it hurricane ( not likely) could be at 1000 mb area..

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah it seemed to be heading a little too far to the north, surface circulation may well not be perfectly stacked, not surprising given its rapidly developing.

I fully expect this to be upto about 45-50kts be landfall, which is a pretty rapid strengtheing given its going to be inland by tonight.

Also note its at 30kts, in this set-up a ship may well be enough to find a TS.

yeah i mentioned a few hours ago .. doppler velocities were showing 43kts at 6000 ft or so as the surface circ gets more well established tose could work down quickly /./

one side note.. extremely deep convection starting to fire on radar..

[Aric Dunn]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 160858
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

DATA FROM THE WFO TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00Z SUGGESTED THAT THERE PROBABLY
WAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THIS...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A SHIP
REPORT FROM A CARNIVAL CRUISE LINE VESSEL OF 40 KT...THIS REPORT IS
NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER
VELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
AND DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORM STATUS IS LIKELY TO BE
ATTAINED SOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM THE HWRF AND GFDL SUGGEST A MIDDLE-RANGE TROPICAL
STORM BY LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT AFTER THE 12 HOUR 45 KT
FORECAST INTENSITY SHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS
APPROXIMATE TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
A CONSENSUS OF A FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ITS EFFECTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN RATHER CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE CENTER.





Great discussion..

[KWT]

Its once again a good job this hasn't got another 18-24hrs to work with (this has been a trend in recent times I've noticed with Katrina, Humberto, Lorenzo, etc!)

I'd imagine the NHC have this at 50-55kts at landfall roughly.

[wxman57]

Still can't find anything but E-SE winds across the eastern Gulf on surface obs. And there are a lot of them.

[KWT]

Must be a very small center wxman57, I don't think they would have upgraded unless there was proof.

[Aric Dunn]

Its once again a good job this hasn't got another 18-24hrs to work with (this has been a trend in recent times I've noticed with Katrina, Humberto, Lorenzo, etc!)

I'd imagine the NHC have this at 50-55kts at landfall roughly.

unlike humberto which had shear and dry air.... this has near perfect environment and if it had another 12 hours over water on top of what it has already it would be a different forecast..

[Aric Dunn]

Still can't find anything but E-SE winds across the eastern Gulf on surface obs. And there are a lot of them.

thats nice.. you just forgetting that this is a small system and no buoy or ships are near by to accurately give you what you seek.. so take the NHC's word for it..

[Aric Dunn]

I think im going to go chase this one .. its a quick drive.. for me.. just 4 hours or so .. i'll do live show from the road maybe..

[keneth]

NHC forecast
INITIAL 16/0900Z 27.7N 83.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 29.2N 85.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 31.0N 86.7W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1800Z 33.0N 87.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED