ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Its too early to know, but I've got a few doubts, as has Derek that the weakness will really have that big an impact on Bill. Sure it is going to gain some latitude but I fear it won't be enough to save the Leeward Islands...

[thetruesms]

Saturdays 0z ECM run, I saved an image of it then estimated its about 32W (though even if I'm slightly out by 1 degree, thats still 3 degrees!) then compared it to the best track thats just come out.

Derek has been saying for so long the models don't handle easterly surges at all well and the ECM certainly isn't doing too great.

The next checkpoint is tomorrow 0z at roughly 40W, which is already looking a bit of a long shot...

I'm glad that you've been keeping track of the performance of these models to confirm how much faster Bill's been running

[Tropicswatcher]

Here's a segment of SAN JUAN'S AFD that talks about BILL:

TS BILL HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLC AND IS AT LEAST FIVE DAYS
OF HAVING ANY IMPACT IN THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
AS MENTIONED IN THE NHC DISCUSSION THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE DEEP
TROPICS AND EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES AND THE STORM WILL
HAVE TO MAKE A HARD RIGHT TURN TO MISS THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. NHC FCST HAS BILL PASSING AT 136 NM ASSUMING A PERFECT
FORECAST WHICH ONLY HAPPENS IN A WORLD OF FANTASY. TRACK ERRORS AT
FIVE DAYS ARE TYPICALLY IN THE ORDER OF 300 NM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LARGE SIZE OF THIS STORM WE ALSO NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS STORM.

[cycloneye]

Bill is south of the forecast point almost at 11N.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hello longtime S2K'rs and newbies...Been away for awhile myself but thought I'd pop in for a few minutes and post a question for the pro mets...What impact will 91L and Ana have on the future track of Bill? Is it possible that these two systems open up a weakness to let Bill recurve prior to the CONUS? Is it possible that this is what some of the models are seeing at this time? Just a thought...

BTW...Good to be back on and finally tracking something!!!

SFT

[Scorpion]

Should be a hurricane tomorrow if it keeps this up.

[wx247]

Look at how the colder cloud tops are expanding near the center!

[smw1981]

I must say, Mr. Bill is looking pretty impressive right now!!!

[Bocadude85]

Look at how the colder cloud tops are expanding near the center!

Bill is looking very good at the moment.. and booking it to the west

[Blown Away]

What's everbody's confidence in the big recurve before the Islands and missing the CONUS?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...BILL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.6 WEST OR ABOUT 905
MILES...1460 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.3N 36.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 36.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 36.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 35.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.2N 38.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 44.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 36.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT BILL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS A BLEND
OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA. WITH THE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...BILL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND BECOME EVEN STRONGER THEREAFTER.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.

BILL IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL TRADE WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF
WAS THE LEADER SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES A FEW RUNS AGO. NOW...THE REST OF
THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...ARE FOLLOWING THE
ECMWF TUNE...AND ALL TURN BILL MORE THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 11.3N 36.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 11.2N 38.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 12.0N 41.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 12.8N 44.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 47.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 52.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 58.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 64.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[caneseddy]

What's everbody's confidence in the big recurve before the Islands and missing the CONUS?

According to Avila, who wrote the discussion, he is putting his faith in the Euro

THE ECMWF WAS THE LEADER SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES A FEW RUNS AGO. NOW...THE REST OF
THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...ARE FOLLOWING THE
ECMWF TUNE...AND ALL TURN BILL MORE THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

[Brent]

What's everbody's confidence in the big recurve before the Islands and missing the CONUS?

I'm still not confident until it starts gaining latitude which should be tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

I will not be rejoicing about Bill not making landfall in the NE Caribbean until it moves north of 15N-50W our benchmark position.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What's everbody's confidence in the big recurve before the Islands and missing the CONUS?

According to Avila, who wrote the discussion, he is putting his faith in the Euro

THE ECMWF WAS THE LEADER SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES A FEW RUNS AGO. NOW...THE REST OF
THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...ARE FOLLOWING THE
ECMWF TUNE...AND ALL TURN BILL MORE THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

That will change by tomorrow. Just look what they did with Ana. All showed recurve early now have shifted to even south of Cuba. Way too early as trough could be weaker, not dig as far south, move out faster with ridge building back in blocking northward motion. Will be very interesting to watch for the next several days for sure.

[Bocadude85]

For what its worth it does appear that Bill will move through the Hebert Box

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Hebert_boxes.jpg

[wxmann_91]

Lol, nobody ever trusts the Euro until the other models trend towards it. (Believe it or not we could still learn a few things from those scientists across the pond.)

Giving this about an 75% chance of fishing now. And, btw, the faster it moves, the faster it moves into the weakness left behind by the upper low.

[Bocadude85]

Lol, nobody ever trusts the Euro until the other models trend towards it. (Believe it or not we could still learn a few things from those scientists across the pond.)

Giving this about an 75% chance of fishing now. And, btw, the faster it moves, the faster it moves into the weakness left behind by the upper low.

Why is Ana not moving into the same weakness?

[Gustywind]

Bill is south of the forecast point almost at 11N.

Again more south?...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Was just watching our local tv met who was showing the latest spagetti models runs for Bill in motion day by day. They showed him missing the islands to the north heading towards the Bahamas. At the end a couple continued nw BUT at least half looked to start to bend back due west. Anyone seen this or have a link we can go to get updates ? I have been concerned about the possibility of this happening.