ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[RL3AO]

Any chance those islands will tear it up?

Hispaniola and Cuba would.

[cycloneye]

152048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

THE CENTER OF ANA CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE
CONVECTION BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
NEAR ANA ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY...MOST OF THE
CONTRIBUTION TO THE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE FROM THE FAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. OVERALL...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD STEER ANA QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH ALL
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE 120 HR FORECAST POINTS. THE
ECMWF AND BAMS ARE AT THE NORTHERN EXTREME...FORECASTING ANA TO
PASS OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HR.
AT THE OTHER EXTREME ARE THE UKMET...GFDN...AND BAMM...WHICH
FORECAST ANA TO PASS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AT 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE NOGAPS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOTABLY NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT SHEAR IS A TEMPORARY TREND OR A
SIGN OF LONG-TERM TROUBLE FOR ANA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THE FORMER IS THE CASE...AND SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CALL FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS STILL SURROUNDED
BY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK NOW
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA...AN OCCURRENCE
THAT HAS DESTROYED STORMS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANA. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THIS PASSAGE AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CUBA. AS BEFORE...THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.4N 50.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 14.7N 52.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.4N 56.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 16.1N 59.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.2N 63.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 19.0N 70.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1800Z 21.5N 76.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[bob rulz]

If Ana remains shallow and weak then it could survive a passage over Hispaniola. Those weak systems tend to hang on better over Hispaniola than the strong, well-organized systems, and at the same time it could still drop a ton of rain over the island.

[cycloneye]

Will be interesting to see just what sort of reports we get from the Leeward Islands. I can't see this one missing them now given its not really picking up any major latitude.

Right here in storm2k,you can get reports from the Eastern Caribbean islands as well look at various web cams scattered thru the islands.The E Carib thread is at Weather Attic forum.

Link to E Carib thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[KWT]

As other have said a weak system wouldn't really have much to tear apart, a low level tropical storm will survive the trip as there isn't really any inner core to destroy,

Remember Frederic people!

Looks like we are going to have another manic session like the parade of storms in 2008.

[wxman57]

Every advisory has shifted the track to the left. No reason to think that'll stop now.

[ROCK]

odds are the core would be toast if it went over Cuba and DR...

[RL3AO]

[Evil Jeremy]

Every advisory has shifted the track to the left. No reason to think that'll stop now.

What do you think the chances are now that this will impact SFL, or is is still to soon to tell?

[artist]

Will be interesting to see just what sort of reports we get from the Leeward Islands. I can't see this one missing them now given its not really picking up any major latitude.

Right here in storm2k,you can get reports from the Eastern Caribbean islands as well look at various web cams scattered thru the islands.The E Carib thread is at Weather Attic forum.

Link to E Carib thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

will we not have a thread here in the active storms forum for obs if this hits the islands? If not, I think it is a disservice not to have them here as we have always done. Most would not know where to find them or even that they exist. I can understand for daily conditions, without a storm present, but not for actual tropical cyclones. Just my 2 cents worth.

[Portastorm]

odds are the core would be toast if it went over Cuba and DR...

Yep especially a storm like Ana which really isn't very large at all.

[Gustywind]

Can someone put the latest models, plots for Anna please ?
Us in the islands are always monitor Anna as the Leewards and Northern Leew could be hit by this feature.
Tkanks my US friends .

[Derek Ortt]

Will be interesting to see just what sort of reports we get from the Leeward Islands. I can't see this one missing them now given its not really picking up any major latitude.

this one may cause Bill to be really bad in terms of flooding, as this will bring periodic heavy rains ans saturate the ground

[MGC]

Die Ana Die! NHC keeps shifting the track westward, no suprise here. Hopefully Ana degenerates into a wave but that might be wishful thinking. This is a small but suprising tenacious little TC and as such it is holding on despite all the dry air surrounding it and some shear. Not liking the track and the latest models have Ana landfalling in Louisiana. I'm afraid if anything gets into the GOM it might explode......MGC

[bob rulz]

The entire Gulf of Mexico is warm and untapped...it's a cauldron there.

[lonelymike]

By the way the ECM now has this over northern Cuba and turning north into the gulf of Mexico, quite a possible set-up that one.

Looked at the latest European and it doesn't show anything with Anna through next week.

[KWT]

Yep Derek, we saw that with all the systems in 2008. We saw that when Fay hit in 2008 and then every storm that came close just added to the flooding issues.

[wxman57]

Every advisory has shifted the track to the left. No reason to think that'll stop now.

What do you think the chances are now that this will impact SFL, or is is still to soon to tell?

If I were you, I wouldn't be too worried about Ana. It's sacrificing itself for Bill (and Claudette).

[tolakram]

One of the last visibles of the day.

[MGC]

Visions of Hurricane Frederick in 1979 are dancing in my head.....formed in about the same spot, tracked across the islands and limped into the GOM as a TD...hit the GOM and exploded....MGC