ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[vacanechaser]

i was just looking at the 11am forecast discussion.. they had it forecast to be at 11.3 in 12 hours.. it maybe early for that, but, of course we do not know for sure if it was expected to be there by now or not... the next forecast point was 12 hours... then the 24 hour point was still at 11.3 .... so, for now it would appear to me anyway, that bill maybe right where the nhc was expecting ti to be..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[RL3AO]

The title needs to be changed.

Not until the advisory comes out.

[senorpepr]

The title needs to be changed.

Our policy is to wait until the advisory makes it official.

[KWT]

Yep, in fact its a little slower then the NHC expected it seems, which quite interesting. Still a decent bit faster then the 0z ECM mind you!

Anyway will be interesting to see if the guidence shifts southwards a touch given its still heading south of west over the 6hr averages.

[Typhoon_Willie]

By the way guys on the Nrl site TD#3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bill.

[Evil Jeremy]

By the way guys on the Nrl site TD#3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bill.

We know already lol.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Ok just thought I would let you know he he.

[Buck]

Officially Bill!



000
WTNT33 KNHC 152033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON
FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS
STRENGTHENED AND HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM BILL..THE SECOND NAME
CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
35.2 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES...1320 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.3N 35.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS
LARGE AND HAS NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
THE OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
UPWARD INTENSITY TREND INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.

BILL IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
STEERING CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...AND
THE BULK OF THE MODELS HAS BILL AS A HURRICANE JUST NORTH AND VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.3N 35.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.2N 37.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 40.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.0N 43.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 58.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Well there we go that makes it totally offical now, we have tropical storm Bill.

Also now at 35.2W, moving at roughly 14.5kts.

[Alacane2]

Oops...there is a typo.

Code: Select all

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT [b]TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO [/b]HAS
STRENGTHENED AND HAS BECOME [b]TROPICAL STORM BILL[/b]..THE SECOND NAME
CYCLONE OF THE SEASON.

[KWT]

Looks like even the NHC have forgotten poor old TD1!

[Kingarabian]

And another one. Should be another named storm to in the coming week as another disturbance comes off africa. Imagine a 3 major hurricane punch :|.

[KWT]

It was bad enough when you had Frances and Jeanne hit each other a few weeks apart, or Dean and Felix the terrible category-5 twins!

Still we shall see, the motion is still 265, I think they are a touch hasty lifting Bill to the WNW but then again they are the experts to be fair.

[KWT]

By the way the 18z GFS starts in about 50 minutes time, will be interesting to see what it does...

[Brent]

[windycity]

One thing i'v noticed since this morning, pressures have been falling from 1006, to 1004 now. I think we will continue seeing this as Bill becomes stronger. I remember watching Wilma at her peak, 3:00 in the morning. It was amazing.

[Ivanhater]

[Evil Jeremy]

One thing i'v noticed since this morning, pressures have been falling from 1006, to 1004 now. I think we will continue seeing this as Bill becomes stronger. I remember watching Wilma at her peak, 3:00 in the morning. It was amazing.

I believe the pressure drop is because of the tropical wave below the state at the moment and the rain it is bringing. It has nothing to do with Bill or Ana.

[KWT]

All the convection still on the southern side so any shift in the center will be to the south I reckon, won't get a more textbook IR look till probably 45-50W. After that then this thing should explode I reckon.

Also the NHC track is WAY too close to the northern Leeward Islands for comfort.