ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Sanibel]

12z HWRF has come south. Just skimming the north shore of the Antilles.

[KWT]

I agree Sanibel, you see that track quite a bit, the two best ones of recent times being Andrew and Frances...which are probably also not far from what TD3 analouges probably are given the El Nino season funnily enough...

[Scorpion]

This made me chuckle

[KWT]

If that was for Td3 I'd believe them a little more!
Does seem tobe rather over the top unless it gets a period of exceptional favorablity in the Bahamas.

[CrazyC83]

Still 35 kt:

AL, 02, 2009081518, , BEST, 0, 144N, 492W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, M,

[rrm]

when will the next models come out?

[Steve H.]

Snippet from HPC Afternoon discussion

MEANWHILE
THOUGH...ONE SIGNIFCIANT MANUAL ADJUSTMENT TO THIS BLEND RESULTS
FROM INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TO THAT
END..TS ANA AS PER TPC HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE HPC PROGS
OVER FLA AND THE SERN US DAYS 5-7.

In Other words, who the hell knows right now.

[KWT]

The models seem to be adjusting southwards with time, heading towards the Caribbean so this may end up being an Antilles issue...maybe like Frederic?

[Recurve]

Meanwhile, we have feeder bands forming over the Keys...wave passage with some good rotation at mid level...as I keep my eyes on Ana.
This may give water managers some fits, having a soaking and then having to consider two more to come. They may decide to dump the canals just because of today's weather.

[Ivanhater]

Seems back to due west in the last few frames

[KWT]

Probably averaging just over 275 looking at that loop, not really WNW, more just north of west then anything. IF Ana was deeper and bigger it'd no doubt have more of a reaction to that weakness.

[wxman57]

May well track south of PR/DR as a depression or weak TS.

[paintplaye]

Seems back to due west in the last few frames

Agree. I think to many people jumped on board to fast. Lets see if it continues west or if it starts going WNW more.

[Evil Jeremy]

May well track south of PR/DR as a depression or weak TS.

Do you think that is the most likely scenario for Ana at this time?

[boca]

I"m willing to bet that Florida will be on the far northern end of the cone by 5pm advisory. Cuba might be more in line with this. I knew it might be premature on a Florida target so early in the game. Remember all the models had Ike hitting South Florida early in the game. I learned not to jump the gun especially with Anna.

[Frank P]

Yesterday I thought this was an east coaster for sure.. now looking more possibly like a S. FL or GOM event, if it survives, and I think it will, as it stand as of now.. nice little LLC exposed on the sat loops... I filled up all the gas cans today.... regardless it could be a busy next couple of weeks for sure... also interesting little swirl in the keys albeit the convection seems to be on the down side at the moment... didn't mean to exclude the Car islands as they also need to be concerned as well

[KWT]

Yep Ana could well end up south of where the models are expecting it now if it struggles...also thats going to have an impact on the set-up for Bill if it does go further south and west then expected.

Remember Frederic though, that remianed weak till the gulf.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yep Ana could well end up south of where the models are expecting it now if it struggles...also thats going to have an impact on the set-up for Bill if it does go further south and west then expected.

Remember Frederic though, that remianed weak till the gulf.

"if it struggles" being the key words. How Ana fares through the next 24 hours in its current "death zone" will play a big part in its future path. This time tomorrow we should really know where Ana is headed.

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

By the way the ECM now has this over northern Cuba and turning north into the gulf of Mexico, quite a possible set-up that one.