ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

The weakness the models are progging is there but its not that strong thus far. I believe models like the ECM are making it even stronger by about 72hrs which allows TD3 to lift out. Generally between 45-50W. IF TD3 is past that location then the system will not likely recurve out at the first time of asking like the ECM suggests.

[Brent]

It looks shunted to the south. Amazing how much closer to 10 N the center is, never would have expected that. Really lost some latitude

[Ivanhater]

In motion...yeah Brent, props to the UKMET if it verifies

[Gustywind]

It looks shunted to the south. Amazing how much closer to 10 N the center is, never would have expected that. Really lost some latitude

So do you tkink the models will adjust this thing more souther Brent? That could have implications this time for the Windwards?

[KWT]

Thats exactly what it is, shunted. Notice the curved look that little line of convection (outflow I guess) is as the upper high continues to push WSW towards 40W.

Until it gets past that point you may as well forget it gaining any latitude really.

[CrazyC83]

BEST TRACK: 35 kt

AL, 03, 2009081518, , BEST, 0, 113N, 345W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 25,

[Gustywind]

Thats exactly what it is, shunted. Notice the curved look that little line of convection (outflow I guess) is as the upper high continues to push WSW towards 40W.

Until it gets past that point you may as well forget it gaining any latitude really.

So there's chances to be a low tracker as Dean 2007...?

[Brent]

BEST TRACK: 35 kt

AL, 03, 2009081518, , BEST, 0, 113N, 345W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 25,

Ana and Bill in the same day. WOW.

Gustywind: It would seem to me the tracks would shift south and be more of a danger for the islands but I really don't know. As long as it's not gaining latitude it's certainly going to be a big threat, even to the middle islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090815 1800 UTC

[CrazyC83]

Now showing Bill on ATCF. Of course, we have to wait until 5 pm for that to become official, since they did revise it initially on Ana...

[Gustywind]

BEST TRACK: 35 kt

AL, 03, 2009081518, , BEST, 0, 113N, 345W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 25,

Ana and Bill in the same day. WOW.

Gustywind: It would seem to me the tracks would shift south and be more of a danger for the islands but I really don't know.

Tkanks a lot, Brent i appreciate that's my thought too, unhopefully that will not be the best scenario for the islands especially Martinica two years after Dean...Let's wait.

[Sanibel]

I don't see anything stopping TD3 from following Ana in its present WNW turn as the models are suggesting.


East quad now wrapping in heavier convection.

[KWT]

No I'm pretty sure it will follow Ana to some extent but starting from a deeper position. I do think the weakness wil lbe enough to shunt Bill to the WNW once it reaches about 50W.

Still we shall see...

Also not all that surprising we have Bill given how impressive the structure is.

[Normandy]

It looks like the WSW motion might have ceased for now, can't really pick it up anymore looking at vis shots. Its latitude is very low right now though, approaching the 10N line imo (UKMET initialization might have been a good one after all). I don't foresee a Caribbean cruiser here, but its going to be awfully hard for this to completely clear the islands given its motion and latitude.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now showing Bill on ATCF. Of course, we have to wait until 5 pm for that to become official, since they did revise it initially on Ana...

Once it is on NRL, it is pretty much official. And its Bill or NRL right now.

[KWT]

Still heading a little south of west Normandy, I'd guess about 267 but the convection wrapping round is probably giving the illusion of it stopping the dive.

Now down to 11.3, I think it may shade another 0.2/3 degrees off before it bottoms out but the WSW motion is rather close to what we saw with Katrina in the Gulf.

Once the other models get a better grip on forward speed and latitude they wil lprobably shift a little south in general.

[vacanechaser]

it does not look like it took that much of a jog southward... it did move in that direction, but not much... seems the nhc has it at 11.3 now...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Nimbus]

A few 10 ths of a degree further south for an initialization can sometimes make a large difference in track. I notice the 8AM NOGAPS had this turning back due west after a move to the WNW that pulls it up to near 13.5 N. Could just be the way NOGAPS is handling the weakness?

[Normandy]

Still heading a little south of west Normandy, I'd guess about 267 but the convection wrapping round is probably giving the illusion of it stopping the dive.

Now down to 11.3, I think it may shade another 0.2/3 degrees off before it bottoms out but the WSW motion is rather close to what we saw with Katrina in the Gulf.

Once the other models get a better grip on forward speed and latitude they wil lprobably shift a little south in general.

Yea, I see it now, still a slight southerly component. Forget the motion, the overall size and organization of the circulation is VERY impressive. I do hope it misses the islands because its effects could be disastrous.

[KWT]

Its dropped nearly a degree latitude in the last 24hrs, thats pretty decent WSW motion really to be honest. Its starting to level out a little now though it may drop a small bit more

[boca]

The title needs to be changed.