ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Derek Ortt]

10.9N is a little south. However, since it brings the system slightly north of west during the first 12h, it shouldn't be that bad

that said, I'd be floored if the UKMET track were to verify

[Nimbus]

Ah, Ana is turning more WNW now. Could be indicating the steering pattern for TD3.

But we may have the case of Bill not following Ana because the weakness that Ana leaves is a little too far north to pick up Bill.

[Brent]

I don't get all this talk of a recurve and missing the islands when it continues to drop in latitude. Below 12 N is a VERY low latitude. I expect models to shift back south with regards to the islands eventually. Beyond that I have no idea though.

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

0900Z QuikSCAT (about 9 hours ago) - 35 kt uncontaminated barbs, NW and SW quads

[Scorpion]

I don't get all this talk of a recurve and missing the islands when it continues to drop in latitude. Below 12 N is a VERY low latitude. I expect models to shift back south with regards to the islands eventually. Beyond that I have no idea though.

I can't think of a TC that was this far south at this latitude and ended up being a fish.

[Ivanhater]

I don't get all this talk of a recurve and missing the islands when it continues to drop in latitude. Below 12 N is a VERY low latitude. I expect models to shift back south with regards to the islands eventually. Beyond that I have no idea though.

It's not like there is a monster trough in the central Atlantic either. Maybe I'm missing something...

[clfenwi]

15/1745 UTC 11.3N 34.4W T2.5/2.5 03L -- Atlantic

[RL3AO]

3:27 am EDT



12:03 pm EDT

[Scorpion]

Impressive. Much better organized now even though the convection has waned. Once it starts going again then it should boom.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bill will be here soon..

[CrazyC83]

I'd put it at 40 kt given the general trends - and 35 kt at 1200Z based on the QuikSCAT.

[tgenius]

So Bill at 5 it appears?

We just got a nasty rain shower from that wave off Key West.. flash flood kinda stuff..

[Gustywind]

TD3 between its neighbours? It's that the beginning of a family

[Brent]

Those T-Numbers support an upgrade.

It does look far better organized than last night even if the convection is not as deep.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Could somebody be so kind as to supply a link to the UKMET for me? Thanks!

[Tropicswatcher]

Could somebody be so kind as to supply a link to the UKMET for me? Thanks!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt

[brunota2003]

Well, the children always come before the parents...fairly decent looking on visibles.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Thanks Tropicswatcher!

[Brent]

12 UKMET:Caribbean bound

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 33.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2009 10.9N 33.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.1N 35.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 39.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 11.8N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 12.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 13.5N 49.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.0N 52.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 14.4N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 14.7N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 14.9N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 15.9N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2009 16.3N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 16.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

Well that's interesting...

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO out to sea yet again....Has a due west storm right behind it that stays west