New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[CrazyC83]

What is the development potential for this next one? It is HUGE, that is for sure...

[N2FSU]

I noticed that! Looks impressive.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is florida going to get a 1-2-3 punch this year? Looks like the road runs right through us.

[KWT]

Once again kind of like TD3 in terms of size, but we are in Cape Verde period so this has a fair chance.

[Gustywind]

Is florida going to get a 1-2-3 punch this year? Looks like the road runs right through us.

and the islands? What do you tkink?

[CrazyC83]

No mention of it yet on the TWO.

[KWT]

ECM develops it:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Not a monster but a Caribbean tracker, a bit like a few of the GFS runs...

Looks like the switch has been flicked!

[Buck]

Should this develop into a named storm (I'm betting on it)... I wonder when the last time the first three named storms of a season were all Cape Verde systems...?

[bob rulz]

Should this develop into a named storm (I'm betting on it)... I wonder when the last time the first three named storms of a season were all Cape Verde systems...?

Well we can't completely count out the disturbance that's in the Gulf of Mexico right now. More than likely it won't develop, but you know how the Gulf can be.

[bob rulz]

I just noticed how huge this wave is, and it has a large amount of convection associated with it. It could still start dissipating, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this get a mention in the next TWO.

[Buck]

Should this develop into a named storm (I'm betting on it)... I wonder when the last time the first three named storms of a season were all Cape Verde systems...?

Well we can't completely count out the disturbance that's in the Gulf of Mexico right now. More than likely it won't develop, but you know how the Gulf can be.

That's true. I forgot.

[clfenwi]

In the TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
ANALYSIS OF THE BAMAKO MALI UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION AND RECENT
5-DAY SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS INDICATE THIS WAVE PASSED
BAMAKO NEAR 15/0000 UTC AND IS CURRENTLY PASSING DAKAR SENEGAL
AND EMERGING INTO THE FAR ERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS.
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD MASS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-16N E OF 22W.

[CrazyC83]

I'd at least have it code yellow though...although it is too early to put 92L on it.

[bob rulz]

The convection diminished quite a bit as it came off the coast, but it still looks pretty well-organized. It won't pull together nearly as quickly as Bill but it definitely could be something down the road. Maybe the NEXT one it will get a code yellow...

[KWT]

Not that different from what Bill looked like at this stage really. The big problem for it is Bill looks like its going to throw its outflow over the system at times, thats why the models keep this a weak system.

Still that may not be a good thing, a weaker system heads more west as Ana is proving.

[Gustywind]

[bob rulz]

This one really lost it coming off the coast. It could obviously become something down the road but it won't be a threat to develop for quite a while still.

[KWT]

Not really all that impressive right now and if it moves too quickly its going to torn apart by Bill's outflow.

Still something to watch down the line, models are toying with the idea of developing it...

[ericinmia]

I wonder... I think this may be what the ECMWF is seeing in the long run in the bahama's?
-Eric

[Smurfwicked]

Sure looks impressive to me now and there is decent blob right behind it too. Looks like that train is still rolling.