ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Sanibel]

GFDL was one of the few to accurately predict the south of Cuba track of Ike last year. It is the outlier south on Ana running it across the Antilles and out under Cuba where it intensifies and heads into the Gulf.

Right now Ana's presentation is weak. I personally think it could break down. I think this weak system is outside GFDL's abilities because GFDL tends to overstrengthen storms in its initial estimation. So don't give GFDL too much credence yet.

Wait until tomorrow.

[jinftl]

Is there anything to turn Ana out to sea? Not hearing any real mention of that.

Dissipation and/or interaction with Hispanola and Cuba might be the way florida avoids a ts or more.

[Gustywind]

Yup looks like Ana ran into a little shear

Maybe, but winds seems to relax once again ahead of Ana, that will some up and down...

[Air Force Met]

Yup looks like Ana ran into a little shear

It's not shear...its dry air. Its exposed because its bone dry.

[otowntiger]

Is there anything to turn Ana out to sea? Not hearing any real mention of that.

Dissipation and/or interaction with Hispanola and Cuba might be the way florida avoids a ts or more.

Dissipation is a good possibility in my opinion.

[littlevince]

It seems that sometimes the most efficient way to weaken storms is updating them. 02L seems to have fun with NHC upgrades.

[otowntiger]

Yup looks like Ana ran into a little shear

It's not shear...its dry air. Its exposed because its bone dry.

Yep. There's nothing more exciting than bone dry air.

[jinftl]

Dissipation didn't work the first time...she came back....she is a fighter. In a day or so, the dry air will be less....whose to say she doesn't take advantage of that?

Is there anything to turn Ana out to sea? Not hearing any real mention of that.

Dissipation and/or interaction with Hispanola and Cuba might be the way florida avoids a ts or more.

Dissipation is a good possibility in my opinion.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ridging is filling and looking at GFS and rest of the model consensus, is pretty locked on to the track (provided is does not dissipate from shear/dry air) I think Ana gets by the shear and by 52W she will be regaining strength. The track is going to keep her from a head on with the ULL but there's no way to tell if the dry air will snuff out the convection.

oh yeah:

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[jinftl]

Down the road, intereaction with land may be the primary way to avoid a landfalling system in florida. If she stays over water....she is not only going to be hitting warmer and warmer water, but more favorable atmospheric conditions. The way she looks right now may not be indicative of how she would look...say when reaching the Gulf Stream.

[wxman57]

Here's a shot of Ana's exposed center and another WV shot showing the upper-level low to its northwest. A WV loop does indicate moderate SW winds now over Ana (shear). And that's why the center is exposed. MIMIC TPW imagery shows a pretty good moist envelope around Ana, though dry air is wrapping around south of the storm, particularly to the southwest of the center.

MIMIC TPW
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Ana Exposed:


SW Shear:

[storms NC]

But if she builds up as a strong cat 1 before she gets involved with the ULL then she will have a chance. But if only a weak TS the ULL will tear it to piece's. As far as where it will go. I wouldn't say till we had a few more days. It could do many things. It could go into the gulf or up the EC or into FL you can not say this early. Floyd was to go into Fl look where it went. Up the EC. Just hold on for a few days then you all can go nuts. The models will swing back and forth.

[tolakram]

In my opinion the latest pulse has helped moisten the environment around Ana and I would not be surprised to see convection build back later today.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Thanks Wxman, excellent depiction of conditions, I was trying to say that earlier. She may not make past the lobe of the ULL, but if she does I think it's game on from there.

Your thoughts?

[AtlanticWind]

NHC Forecast advisory

14.6 46.8 Tropical storm 40 mph
14.7 49.4 Depression 30 mph
15.3 52.7 Hurricane 80 mph
16.1 56.4 Tropical wave 15 mph
17.0 60.0 Cat 3 120 mph
19.5 67.0 Rainshower a little breezy
22.5 73.00 ?????????????

[srainhoutx]

Folks may want to look a the wave in the FL Straits for some "hints" of future tracks regarding Ana. The ridging and potential EC trough will effect that wave much sooner than Ana. Just my 0.02 cents worth.

[Recurve]

GFDL correctly had Katrina's southward dip through South Florida (just way too strong) when all other guidance was straight west across the state, if I remember right.

[MGC]

Gotta agree 57....like I said last night, the ULL to the north of Ana would keep her weak and this is exactly what is happening. The dry air surrounding Ana is not the main cause of this yo-yo convective activity, its the shear. I've seen many intense hurricanes surrounded by dry air. Yes, back to a remnant low is a possibility, but I see Ana limping along in the short term.......MGC

[jinftl]

Not implying in any way we are seeing Andrew's little sister but this is a bit eerie if only a coincidence


8/17/92 TS Andrew winds: 50 mph, 14.2N, 47.1W

8/15/09 TS Ana winds: 40 mph 14.6N, 46.8W


In the days that followed, Andrew would weaken some as he fought shear. And then conditions changed.

[wxman57]

Thanks Wxman, excellent depiction of conditions, I was trying to say that earlier. She may not make past the lobe of the ULL, but if she does I think it's game on from there.

Your thoughts?

Conditions in its immediate path (next 2 days) are certainly more hostile than they were yesterday. This means that the threat to the NE Caribbean is minimal. Maybe the GFS was correct in weakening it? NHC has been behind the power curve with this storm all along - late in calling it a TS on the 12th, late in calling it a TD/TS this time, and now they'll probably still call it a TS when it's clearly a TD (and a weak one, at that) now.