ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ana looks pathetic yet again....Shear is rearing its head again this morning...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 151248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA (AL022009) 20090815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200 090817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 47.6W 15.2N 50.8W 16.6N 55.0W 18.4N 59.4W
BAMD 14.3N 47.6W 15.2N 50.3W 16.1N 53.5W 17.0N 57.1W
BAMM 14.3N 47.6W 15.0N 50.4W 15.7N 54.0W 16.5N 57.9W
LBAR 14.3N 47.6W 14.7N 50.4W 15.4N 53.7W 16.3N 57.3W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS 47KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 1200 090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 64.1W 23.7N 71.5W 26.6N 76.2W 28.4N 79.1W
BAMD 17.8N 60.9W 19.5N 68.7W 21.6N 75.1W 23.2N 79.3W
BAMM 17.3N 62.2W 19.1N 70.4W 20.9N 77.6W 22.4N 82.7W
LBAR 17.0N 61.1W 18.7N 68.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 62KTS 62KTS 66KTS
DSHP 53KTS 62KTS 62KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 47.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 41.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

[Gustywind]

[shortwave]

See what I mean? I had picked August 8th as the date Ana would form back in May. I picked the 8th because I expected it to form on a Saturday (they always do). Today is Saturday and we have Ana. Just a week later. That's why Ana couldn't form before today. It just turned Saturday again.

how are you with lotto numbers?

What are your thoughts for Day 5 with Anna?

[Scorpion]

Ana looks pathetic yet again....Shear is rearing its head again this morning...

I think it looks fine, just could use a little more convection

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking at WV loops, that ULL to the NW of Ana is going to wrap in dry air and shear as it digs SW.

[senorpepr]

Best track for Ana upgraded to TS on the 12th from 06-12Z...


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

Best track for Ana upgraded to TS on the 12th from 06-12Z...


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 009.invest

I guess they decided they could safely do it as it would no longer involve upgrading to an unnamed tropical storm...

[cycloneye]

In other words,for those newbies what the above post means is that it was a Tropical Storm on August 12th for a short time.

[gatorcane]

Thoughts on Ana becoming a hurricane? I noticed in the NHC discussion they don't mention proximity to 90L as a deterring factor. Seems that with some warm waters it is headed, even light to moderate shear could allow some decent strengthening.

[otowntiger]

Ana, like 90L is suffering from lack of convection right now (whats new?) and it looks like she has lots of very dry air to her west. I don't see any kind of increase in intensity for Ana, and based on how this season has gone, with el nino, et. al. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her either never make it beyond t.s. strength or go poof altogether.

[cpdaman]

Ana, like 90L is suffering from lack of convection right now (whats new?) and it looks like she has lots of very dry air to her west. I don't see any kind of increase in intensity for Ana, and based on how this season has gone, with el nino, et. al. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her either never make it beyond t.s. strength or go poof altogether.

completely agree

with the plethora of ULL's out there and dry air i would say ana won't be around too long ....how's the end of the day sound

she needs real peachy conditions or she will become a remnant low again.....and i see some SW shear headed her way from the ULL dropping down from the NW.

i am actually more at ease today with these storms than in the last day or two....

[gatorcane]

Ana, like 90L is suffering from lack of convection right now (whats new?) and it looks like she has lots of very dry air to her west. I don't see any kind of increase in intensity for Ana, and based on how this season has gone, with el nino, et. al. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her either never make it beyond t.s. strength or go poof altogether.

completely agree

with the plethora of ULL's out there and dry air i would say ana won't be around too long ....how's the end of the day sound

she needs real peachy conditions or she will become a remnant low again.....and i see some SW shear headed her way from the ULL dropping down from the NW.

i am actually more at ease today with these storms than in the last day or two....

I can see why you would say that but since Ana continues to look like a real possible threat for South Florida, and maybe 90L later on (and maybe the system the GFS develops behind 90L), I'm less at ease. It's likely we are seeing a temporary set back but you know how things are with the tropics. How many times have we seen struggling systems this far out in the Atlantic that get there act together once they are farther west in warmer waters?

[tolakram]

Ana, like 90L is suffering from lack of convection right now (whats new?) and it looks like she has lots of very dry air to her west. I don't see any kind of increase in intensity for Ana, and based on how this season has gone, with el nino, et. al. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her either never make it beyond t.s. strength or go poof altogether.

completely agree

with the plethora of ULL's out there and dry air i would say ana won't be around too long ....how's the end of the day sound

she needs real peachy conditions or she will become a remnant low again.....and i see some SW shear headed her way from the ULL dropping down from the NW.

i am actually more at ease today with these storms than in the last day or two....

Could be, but in my opinion early morning is the wrong time to judge if a storm has a chance or not.

[wxman57]

Best track for Ana upgraded to TS on the 12th from 06-12Z...

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 009.invest

Right, but I took that into consideration when I picked a Saturday. I figured it would become a TS between regular advisory times and not get named for 3 more days.

[Sanibel]

Presentation suggests weakening or dissipation.


Another boom then bust wave like the one before it IMO.


Should make 90L stronger.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Emmett_Brown]

Thoughts on Ana becoming a hurricane? I noticed in the NHC discussion they don't mention proximity to 90L as a deterring factor. Seems that with some warm waters it is headed, even light to moderate shear could allow some decent strengthening.

I think today will be a steady state day for Ana, as she fights the dry air. However, I agree that the increasing water temps and lessening shear (GFS wants to lessen shear in her path during the next 48 hours) should allow for strengthening. If she can avoid an encounter with the Greater Antilles, I think she becomes a hurricane in the Bahamas (assuming she ever gains latitude). The HWRF forecast for a Cat 2 is very possible in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL WIND PROBABILITIES FROM TPC
GRIDS BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WORDING INTO
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM ANA FIRST CONCERN ON THE
LIST THIS MORNING...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD FROM JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO (AND USVI) TO JUST NORTH. OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
TRACKS SYSTEM JUST NORTH...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCED WINDS
THROUGH THE VI...NORTHERN PR...ALL EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. EARLY CYCLE 12Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AL90 (THE
NEXT SYSTEM) A BIT FARTHER TO THE RIGHT...BETTER NEWS FOR PR AND
THE US. THIS KEEPS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z LATE CYCLE (MORE
RELIABLE) RUNS. THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY TREND...WILL LOOK FORWARD
TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK ONCE THE NHC INITIATES THIS SYSTEM.

The members who may want to look at the preparations,web cams from the islands and more can go to the Eastern Caribbean thread at Weather Attic forum.Web Cams at first post of thread.

Link to E Carib thread,Web Cams,Obs,Forecasts,Daily Weather.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Center exposed,this still having some problems

[Bocadude85]

Yup looks like Ana ran into a little shear